January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[Ptarmigan]

Yeah...but we live in Houston, not Helena

I hope the only snow I see this year is up in Angel Fire. As for the storms - bring it!

Signed,
Warm Mongerer

I don't some warm weather. I just don't like hot weather, especially with last summer.

[South_Texas_Storms]

0z GFS is crap! 12z run showed 1-2 inches of rain for SA and Austin next Wednesday and now the 0z shows less than .25 inch. Now that pisses me off! I was really looking forward to a good soaking beneficial rainfall event next week. Grrrrrrr.

[TexasMetBlake]

I'm very intrigued by the extended. I'm not totally sold on a 1060 high moving into Montana but the general idea of an arctic dump doesn't seem totally out of the question. Looking back, some of the more severe actic outbreaks have been in February.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[srainhoutx]

While the GFS was too progressive, the Euro/Canadian/UKMet solution do cut off a potent U/L near the Big Bend Region and bring copious rains/severe storms chance to Texas and our area. In fact the ensembles are agreeing with a cut off solution and a slower progression E of the U/L keeping rain chances going until late next week. HGX has chosen this solution along the the HPC as the more likely outcome.

Looking ahead, the Euro is hinting a switch to a 'colder pattern' for very late January/early February may be in the cards. An active pattern is developing, so enjoy these 'calm warm days' while they last...

[srainhoutx]

And the 06Z GFS has now slowed the progression of the mid latitude trough/upper low as well. Flip flopping along in modlel world is not uncommon with these deep Southern Cyclones as we as seen all late fall/early winter season this year. Why should the storm be any different...?...

[Katdaddy]

Looking more and more like another significant weather event for next week. From this mornings Houston-Galveston AFD:

THINGS GET MORE MUDDLED DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER.
THE GFS IS VERY PROGRESSIVE BRINGING AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN...ECMWF
AND UKMET ARE ALL SLOWER AND THEY HOLD THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE
WEST AND ACTUALLY DEVELOP A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE BIG BEND REGION.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE UPPER LOW EAST UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS LEAVING SOME ENERGY OUT WEST SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LESS PROGRESSIVE CANADIAN AND ECMWF. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALSO SHOW IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS AND A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY
IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HELICITY VALUES OVER 200...
LI`S AROUND -2 AND PW VALUES OVER 1.50 INCHES. WILL CARRY HIGH END
CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TREKS TO THE EAST.

[srainhoutx]

The good news is the HPC is considering tasking a Winter RECON mission for 22/00Z out over the Pacific for our storm threat next week. It does appear the potential severe weather will be the major weather headline for the CONUS next week.

[srainhoutx]

HPC morning update:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
743 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 24 2012 - 12Z FRI JAN 27 2012

CHANGES WILL BE OCCURRING AT HIGHER LATITUDES THIS PERIOD AS A
DEEP VORTEX IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PACIFIC WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND REFORMS CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF NORTH AMERICA. THE
EXPECTED LATITUDE OF THE POLAR VORTEX SHOULD KEEP SYSTEMS
PROGRESSIVE WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDES/LOWER 48 UNITED STATES. A
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY PROGRESSING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
PACIFIC SHIFTS THE QUASI-ZONAL PACIFIC JET STREAM NORTHWARD FROM
CALIFORNIA BACK TO THE WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER AND SHOULD ALLOW
ENERGY/TROUGHING TO DIG DOWNSTREAM INTO THE PLAINS.

EARLY ON..00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN COMPROMISE WITH THE SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO CANADA. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THE GUIDANCE CONVERGES TO SOME DEGREE WITH TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS THE WEST INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE THE MODELS DIVERGE ONCE
MORE...WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF DROPPING A DEEP CYCLONE
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE THE 00Z GFS KICKS THE SYSTEM EASTWARD.
BOTH CAMPS HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS TO AVOID BEING DISMISSED. BIASES IN THE GUIDANCE
COME INTO PLAY AT THIS POINT IN THE DECISION AS THE 00Z
CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF CAN BE TOO SLOW TO PROGRESS SYSTEMS BEYOND 120
HOURS/FIVE DAYS INTO THE FUTURE WHILE THE GFS CAN BE TOO QUICK
WITH SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERLIES. LATEST 06Z GFS HAS GONE TO A
CONSIDERABLY SLOW SOLUTION AS IT JOINS THE CMC/UKMET/ECMWF CAMP
BUT MAY BE NOW TOO SLOW. THIS HAS LED HPC UPDATED MORNING PROGS TO
A 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS SOLUTION THRU THE PERIOD ALLOWING A SOUTHERN
STREAM CYCLONE TO FORM IN TEXAS BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TO OFF
THE NEW ENG COAST BY DAY 7 FRI.

POTENTIAL MDT TO HVY SNOW EVENT FRO ERN MN/NRN WI AND TEH NRN
PENINSULA OF MI MONDAY. HEAVY PCPN WILL CONTINUE IN THE CA SIERRA
EARLY PERIOD THEN SHIFT NWD INTO B.C. AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND COASTAL RANGES AFTER BY WEEK. HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT SETTING UP FOR EASTERN TX MID WEEK.

[wxman57]

The 00Z Euro and Canadian are VASTLY different from the 06Z GFS at 240 hrs, though the 00Z GFS 500mb pattern at hour 240 is somewhat similar to the GFS. Generally, little to no model agreement in the long range. The differences are huge as far as impact on the U.S. -- very cold and possibly snowy or a continuation of the current mild conditions. Which one is right? I wouldn't put my money on the GFS at 300+ hours, particularly the 06Z GFS...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I see this February shaping up a lot like the February of 2000. Warm January, warm early February, one blast that chilled us a lot with sleet and freezing rain, then a warm end to February and an active Spring which led to a fairly normal Summer until August hit and we had high 100s for a couple weeks then a very cool fall. We were in the 40s for a high in early October that year.

Hello El Nino.

[wxman57]

Either that or it'll be just a continuation of January. Don't trust the models past about 4-5 days.

[redneckweather]

I tell you what, it seems like everyone has their own interpretation of the models on here. Someone will post about the possibilities of active weather (or something semi exciting) then wxman posts something totally different and y'all are looking at the same models!!! So which scenario is it?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

We are going to have an active mid week next week. I think wxman57 will agree with that.

What we may disagree on is the pattern going into the first week of February. I think 2012 will be a carbon copy of 2000. Go ahead and bookmark this post. That's my forecast.

It will make for some very dry times and some very severe times... go look at November-December 2000... second coldest on record.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

funderstorm time in the HTX mid week!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

not sure why, but I've never been real excited about tropical weather... mainly because its so hit and miss. What is this Funso?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Interesting... I'm going to drop in on Funso and check out his/her power....

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS has trended toward the over night Euro/Canadian/UKMet solution suggesting a deepening closed core U/L near the Big Bend Region. Worrisome to see the GFS continue to advertise a posibble meso and if the slower solution is correct, our severe weather chances would be later in the daytime hours than what we saw on January 9th. Additional daytime heating may well make conditions at bit interesting. We will see.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

What's worrisome to you srain? To me, I'll take Meso all day long... let it pour again, we need the rain! If that means a F0 or F1 skipping across suburbia Houston, so be it.

[Belmer]

What's worrisome to you srain? To me, I'll take Meso all day long... let it pour again, we need the rain! If that means a F0 or F1 skipping across suburbia Houston, so be it.

You say that now, but let me hear you say It when it goes over your house and you're paying for a $15,000 roof, new windows, installation, etc. won't be as much fun then, would it?
However, I do like severe weather; like lightning, heavy amounts of rain, even some fun wind storms, and even (small) hail. But tornadoes, I can do without that for the rest of my life.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian continues the trend with a W Texas U/L and a Coastal Low for next Wednesday...