February: Calm Weather To End The Month

[wxman57]

lol...

What model is that?

10 days from starting Friday fish fries in a kitchen on wheels. It'll be hot, no matter what, surrounded by deep oil fryers. So, I'd prefer it warm outside to reduce the shock of hot and sweaty to very cold...

I guess I'm missing the joke (the LOL part)?

[srainhoutx]

Regarding the weekend storm, the 12Z GFS was a bit too progressive while the 12Z Canadian holds back the upper low in Old Mexico and is slower with the Coastal low ejecting NE. As we have seen all winter season, the models struggle with the upper air disturbances to our SW and I strongly suspect that trend will continue. Severe weather and very heavy rainfall is not out of the question, IMO for Friday night into Saturday.

[srainhoutx]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1033 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235>237-160000-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-
HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
1033 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO
GALVESTON LINE THIS AFTERNOON...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO GALVESTON LINE HAVE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER. FURTHER SOUTH...A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE TEXAS COAST
SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION
THIS AFTERNOON.

[srainhoutx]

Flood Advisory issued for Grimes, Montgomery, Walker and Washington Counties. Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity and Walker Counties

[tireman4]

Things are starting to fire up. Everyone be careful today and keep a weather eye to the sky...

[redneckweather]

Nothing but mist/sprinkles in central Montgomery County out near the lake. It looks like the majority of the heavy rain will be off to the north with this system.

[TexasBreeze]

Nothing but mist/sprinkles in central Montgomery County out near the lake. It looks like the majority of the heavy rain will be off to the north with this system.

That's what I'm seeing so far...

[weatherrabbit]

still pouring here in huntsville. playing add on to our rain totals

[redneckweather]

Showers/storms firing off to the west of the area......just like I said they would.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[redneckweather]

Very heavy rain here at my house...big ol turd floater.

[niner21]

Wow, this crap is killing me. It's sooooo wet that I can't even move equipment in my yard or we'll sink or cause 1' deep ruts in the ground with the tires.

Drought, smought I've had enough rain to last me till about 30 days from now.

I can't get paid if it's this muddy. Can't get sod, sod farm is too wet. Can't powerwash a house, mud keeps splattering on the house from dripping. Can't keep the inside clean because feet get wet and muddy. Honestly. Can we look for just 5-6 days in a row without rain? That's all I am asking for.

Yeah, we'll be in a 10 year drought. Sure.... Have you ever lived in Houston? It's a tropical rainforest for gods sake.

[redneckweather]

niner21, I appreciate your rant but it will be a cold day in hell before I ever wish for rain to go away.

[srainhoutx]

HGX reports many flooded roads in Walker County

[redneckweather]

Man, it is REALLY coming down now! Been getting blasted for 45 minutes now. Water running everywhere.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Good to see Lake Conroe getting blasted today.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX TO LA AND SOUTHERN AR/SOUTHWEST MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152114Z - 152245Z

BOUTS OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF AR/MS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THREAT /AND HEAVY RAINFALL/ MAY ALSO
INCREASE TO A DEGREE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTHEAST TX. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN EITHER
CASE...BUT THE NEED FOR A WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TX IF A CONVECTIVE UPSWING OCCURS.

AT MID-AFTERNOON...A WELL-SUSTAINED/INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND
MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTIVE QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX CONTINUES TO
STEADILY EXPAND/PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL
LA. ON THIS NORTH AND EAST PERIPHERY OF THIS MCS...SUSTAINED
ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE HAIL THREAT...ALTHOUGH SUCH A RISK
WILL TEND TO REMAIN EPISODIC/MARGINAL IN NATURE. AN EXPANDING MCS
COLD POOL AND THE INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE MCS
/INCLUDING APPARENT MCV TENDENCIES/ LEADS CREDENCE TO SOME POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE MCS AND
MODEST LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY AHEAD OF IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TEMPER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE-CALIBER DOWNDRAFTS...EVEN WHERE MODEST CLOUD
BREAKS AND SURFACE HEATING /AROUND 70 F/ ARE OCCURRING IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL LA.

FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTHEAST TX...MOIST
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE REGENERATION WITH A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED CORRIDOR. ALONG WITH A SUSTAINED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT...SOME SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE
ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE CURRENT MCS WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS
DESTABILIZED /750-1500 J PER KG/ AMID A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /NEAR 70F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND LIMITED CLOUD BREAKS. WHILE THE COMBINATION
OF VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND MODEST CONVERGENCE
AMID NEBULOUS LARGE SCALE INFLUENCES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO UNCERTAINTY
TO THE EXTENT/LIKELIHOOD OF THE SEVERE RISK.
NONETHELESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX
THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 02/15/2012


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...EWX...

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis...

LOCATION...LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER SE TX
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
POTENT MID/UL DISTURBANCE MOVING E ACROSS THE NE TX PANHANDLE ATTM
WITH A MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS MEXICO/ERN TX/GULF COAST
REGION. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE VALUES FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAVE BEEN CREEPING NWWD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND PWATS
ARE NOW AVERAGING 1.3-1.4" ACROSS MUCH OF SERN TX/SRN LA. A FEW WEAKER
IMPULSES HAVE BEEN MOVING NEWD IN THE MOISTURE PLUME AND HAVE HELPED TO
TRIGGER AN AREA OF CONVECTION NOW OVER TX IN IR/VIS IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT SOME COOLING/EXPANDING IS TAKING PLACE WITH THE CONVECTION,
MAINLY WHERE CELL MERGERS HAVE OCCURED THE PAST FEW HRS. THIS CONVECTION
IS RAPIDALY MOVING NEWD ACROSS TX TOWARD LA, BUT SOME TRAINING HAS BEEN
OCCURINGA ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA LEADNG TO SOME HEAVIER RAIN FALL
TOTALS. MANUAL SATELLITE ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES SUGGEST RAIN RATES IN THE
0.5-0.75"/HR RANGE. SFC OBS FROM KUTS SHOW THAT 1.57" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
THE PAST 2-3 HRS WHICH HELPS SUPPORT THESE RATES. WHILE EXCESSIVELY HEAVY
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM, THE CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
A QUICK 1-2" OF RAIN AS IT MOVES THROUGH TX AND PARTS OF LA THE NEXT FEW
HRS. WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL FEEDING INTO SE TX FROM THE GULF, WILL ALSO
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME REDEVELOPMENT THE COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MOVING OVER AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN 1-2" OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 19Z-22Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...WEAK MID/UL IMPULSE NOW OVER ERN TX IN WV IMAGERY SHOULD
HELP TO SUPPORT THE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD WRN
LA THE NEXT FEW HRS. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE MORE LIKLEY OVER TX WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS ATTM. CONVECTION MAY WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO
WRN LA WHERE MOISTURE VALUES NOT AS HIGH, BUT STILL LOOKING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF REDEVELOPMENT ON TAIL END OF THE IMPULES OVER SE TX THAT
COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE CONVECTION MOVING OVER AREAS ALREADY HIT WITH 1-2"
OF RAIN THE PAST FEW HRS. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED,
THE MOD/HVY RAIN OCCURRING COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED ISSUES WITH POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THE NEXT FEW HRS.

[srainhoutx]

HGX afternoon update suggests rain returns to Coastal Counties tomorrow afternoon/evening and flood potential increasing for late Friday into Saturday across the area. Best chances for now appear to be along and S of the HWY 59 corridor, but that may change as future data becomes available. Over running conditions start as early as tomorrow across the region and will increase precip chances into Friday/Saturday as a Coastal Low treks NE up the Coast. It appears we'll do it all again early next week as well.

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Flash Flood Warning for Grimes, Montgomery, San Jacinto and Walker Counties

[srainhoutx]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235>237-160600-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-
HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
346 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WEAK LINE
OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES UP THE COAST. A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.

CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-
346 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WEAK LINE
OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

ALONG THE COAST...DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY
TO AROUND A QUARTER MILE ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF GALVESTON
COUNTY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES UP THE COAST. A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.