April: Warm & Muggy To End The Month. Showers Monday?

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Flood Advisory for Brazoria & Matagorda Counties

[Paul]

here we go again....

anyone notice that MSC in the GOM.....man if this was August you know that sucker would be spinning up....

[Ptarmigan]

here we go again....

anyone notice that MSC in the GOM.....man if this was August you know that sucker would be spinning up....

Joe Bastardi thinks this season is more likely to see more home grown storms.

Damaging Hurricanes Could Impact Energy, Insurance Industries In 2012
http://www.forbes.com/sites/weatherbell ... s-in-2012/

[srainhoutx]

I hope everyone has a great Holiday Weekend. The weather looks to co-operate for SE TX at least. Storms across N Central TX may fire Easter Sunday along a dry line. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

From NESDIS:

LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...CONVECTION ON THE INCREASE IN WEST-CENTRAL TX
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN WEST CENTRAL TX WITH VIS IMAGERY SHOWING
EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT LAST HOUR OR SO INVOF NOLAN COUNTY WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FURTHER SW THAT WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE CONGLOMERATE OF
CONVECTION AS THE EVENING GOES ON. AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME IR IMAGERY
HAS SHOWN CLOUD TOPS COOLING TO -62C AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL COOLING AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IS ALSO MAXIMIZED. INSTABILITY IS RUNNING QUITE HIGH OVER AREA WITH LIS
AROUND -8C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. THE BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT HAS ALSO SHOWN PWATS POOLING TO 1.1-1.2" ALONG BOUNDARY WHERE
BETTER CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN ADDITION TO DEEP MOISTURE FROM GULF BEING
LIFTED NW OVER S TEXAS. ANTICIPATE RATES OF 1-2"/HR IN DEEPEST CORES AND
BELIEVE TRAINING COULD BE AN ISSUE AS RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN LIMITED
MOVEMENT AND POSSIBLE BACK BUILDING COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2230-0130Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE PLENTY OF MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND LIFT
ARE PLACED TO ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT. BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL
BACK BUILD/MERGE TO THE SW POSSIBLY LEADING TO TRAINING AND A INCREASED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT SAT APR 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/N CNTRL TX INTO S CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 150...

VALID 072341Z - 080045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 150
CONTINUES.

A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 150 WITH THE PRIMARY
THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY DEPICTS A COLD FRONT ALONG A FST TO ABI TO
ADM LINE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING S OF BGS AND NEAR ABI. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 60S. WARMEST TEMPERATURES...HIGHEST DEWPOINTS...AND BEST
CONVERGENCE ARE ALONG THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT /ABI SWWD
TOWARDS FST/. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE OF CONTINUING/INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN THIS AREA. FARTHER N...WEAKENING WINDS
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS BRING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. ADDITIONALLY...DESPITE SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
DEPICTING AN UNCAPPED ML PARCEL...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH SWLY FLOW ARE LIKELY INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

..MOSIER.. 04/07/2012


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS and Euro generally agree that the 'best days' regarding any severe storms for Texas would be a week from today. As always, we can't trust guidance too much beyond the 3-5 day range, but it is noteworthy that a trend is developing for the chance of severe weather beginning in the Sunday into Monday time frame for the Lone Star State. We will see.

[Ptarmigan]

The 12Z GFS and Euro generally agree that the 'best days' regarding any severe storms for Texas would be a week from today. As always, we can't trust guidance too much beyond the 3-5 day range, but it is noteworthy that a trend is developing for the chance of severe weather beginning in the Sunday into Monday time frame for the Lone Star State. We will see.

Next week should be interesting..................

[srainhoutx]

Guidance has come into a bit better agreement regarding the weekend into next Monday as yet another deep Western trough and upper low drop S into the AZ/NM region suggesting a dry line developing across W Texas providing a focal point for a severe weather outbreak.

Storms appear to begin out W late Saturday and slowly sag E in time as the dry line/Pacific frontal boundary takes shape and begins to progress E on Sunday across N Central/Central TX and points N and E. The SPC has been suggesting for several days a possible significant severe weather episode will unfold for parts of the Lone Star State into OK and KS. What remains to be seen is imbedded short wave impulses rounding the base of the trough/H5 low providing a trigger for rounds of strong to severe storms and the potential for super cells as rich Gulf moisture returns in earnest late week.

The main threat appears to be strong damaging winds with large hail and isolated tornadoes as the storms become linear in nature Sunday night into Monday for areas along and E of the I-35 Corridor. We’ll need to watch the Metroplex and points N and E for the potential of additional super cells developing during the day on Monday as the dry line pushes E.

For SE TX, the main threat appears to be a squall line with strong storms along and N of the I-10 Corridor for Monday as the upper dynamics head into the Plains. We’ll need to monitor future guidance output for any subtle changes/mesoscale features that cannot be determined this far out regarding the sensible weather we can expect.

[wxman57]

Looks like Sunday's sprint car race will be rain-shortened, Ed. Could be a big squall line moving into the speedway Sunday afternoon/evening. The race doesn't start until 7pm. Check out the meteogram below and note the rain scale on the right. I had to adjust the 3hr rainfall from 0.5" to 1.5" to show the heavy rain forecast for Dallas Sunday afternoon/evening. Race may well have to be moved to Monday.

[srainhoutx]

Some impressive rainfall totals starting to show up via the 00Z GFS ensembles...

[wxman57]

Looks like Sunday's sprint car race will be rain-shortened, Ed. Could be a big squall line moving into the speedway Sunday afternoon/evening. The race doesn't start until 7pm. Check out the meteogram below and note the rain scale on the right. I had to adjust the 3hr rainfall from 0.5" to 1.5" to show the heavy rain forecast for Dallas Sunday afternoon/evening. Race may well have to be moved to Monday.

Muahahahahahaha!

The race is Saturday night! on Fox for those unlucky enough not to be near AFW!!!

Wish I could stay to see real severe weather on Sunday, but work on Monday.

Great! I forgot it's a Friday/Saturday event this weekend. Will look for you in the crowd.
I miss Carl Edwards in the NNS this year.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS and Canadian are suggesting a slowing trend of the progression of the dry line/Pacific front across Eastern half of Texas on Monday. We will see...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I like that run. It would definitely punch out the drought over the eastern 2/3 of Texas.

[srainhoutx]

Concerning to see the Euro and UKMet joining the solutions suggesting a significant Severe Weather episode unfolding across the Lone Star State into OK, KS, NE and points E. Some of the parameters are suggesting a very potent storm complex with multiple days of tornadoes and super cells over a very wide spread area beginning Saturday and extending into Monday.

[srainhoutx]

About 20 miles S of Dumas in the TX Panhandle a major hail storm has US 287 closed for plowing...

[Katdaddy]

Wow that is amazing Srain. Almost hot this afternoon. Leaving Fairfield yesterday I saw a few TCUs off to the NE from the storms firing over NE TX.

[srainhoutx]

The over night guidance has trended a bit faster with the upper trough/dry line progessing into E TX late Sunday into Monday. While the severe weather chances may have shifted a bit further N, the heavy rainfall chances have increased for Central/SE TX and points N and E. The HPC QPF forecast suggest rainfall in the 1-3 inch amounts with higher isolated amounts near 4-5 inches E of the I-35 Corridor and on S in areas SW of the Houston Metro Area. We'll need to watch things a bit closer as the weekend draws near for the 'finer details'.

For those further N, the SPC has issued a rather rare Day 3 Moderate Risk for parts of N TX/OK/KS and possibly extending into NE and on N and E. For those with family and friends in those areas, a heads up for those not so weather wise for Saturday may be in order.

As we get closer to the weather events of the late weekend/early next, the severe threat may well shift E and a Slight Risk may not be out of the question for Sunday into Monday. Stay Tune! I wouldn't be surprise to see Flash Flood Watches coming with this type of setup. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Calm spring weather of late will transition back to stormy by the end of the weekend and early next week as the next storm system moves toward the state.



Upper level trough will dig into the western US over the weekend and then eject into the plains early next week. Short waves lifting out into the plains ahead of the main trough will produce daily rounds of severe thunderstorms over the high plains from western TX into the central plains. Saturday is looking likely a particularly dangerous day from northern TX into the central plains where a significant threat for dangerous long tracked tornadoes appears at least possible.



Surface low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies over the next 24 hours will encourage stronger SE surface flow off the Gulf of Mexico starting on Friday through the weekend. Fairly pleasant humidity levels will rise into the sticky range by late Friday and remain through the weekend as dewpoints rise into the upper 60’s. Gusty SE winds of 15-25mph will be common each day Fri-Sun. Rain chances will be on the low side through much of the weekend until Sunday afternoon/evening when advancing short wave energy may skirt close enough to the region to allow thunderstorms to develop.



Bigger event appears slated for the Sunday night-Monday time period as the main upper trough lifts into the plains dragging a cold front eastward across TX. Thunderstorms are likely to developing along and ahead of this feature Sunday afternoon over west/central TX and progress eastward toward SE TX overnight into Monday. Track of the main upper trough toward the central plains instead of the southern plains may result in a lessened severe threat this far south along with potential for portions of the area to be dry slotted. Still several days to watch how event may unfold and adjust both the timing and intensity of the potential event.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is suggesting a rather heavy rainfall event with training storms throughout the day on Monday...