TS Alberto: Offshore Carolinas

[wxman57]

If convection persists it could become a TS tomorrow or Monday.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[srainhoutx]

If convection persists it could become a TS tomorrow or Monday.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[TexasBreeze]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

Convection has maintained this afternoon and is beginning to wrap around the SW/S semi circle. Shear remains near 20kts, but may relax enough to see Alberto form.

[unome]

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al012012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205191923
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
ALBERTO, AL, L, , , , , 01, 2012, TS, O, 2012051912, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL012012
AL, 01, 2012051812, , BEST, 0, 334N, 764W, 25, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 01, 2012051818, , BEST, 0, 333N, 766W, 25, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 01, 2012051900, , BEST, 0, 331N, 768W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 01, 2012051906, , BEST, 0, 329N, 771W, 30, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 01, 2012051912, , BEST, 0, 325N, 773W, 35, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 30, 30, 1012, 50, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2012051918, , BEST, 0, 323N, 776W, 40, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 30, 40, 1012, 60, 30, 50, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALBERTO, M,

[Katdaddy]

Just a matter of time until the first official advisory.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
2100 UTC SAT MAY 19 2012

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 77.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.

[Katdaddy]

Welcome to the 2012 Hurricane Season! Keep in mind the concern this year is "homebrew" which simply put is close to shore development without much lead time for preps. TS Alberto is one of those type of storms today. Always have 2 hurricane plans. One for storms that give you several days to a week to prepare such as Rita/IKE and one that gives you two days or less like Humberto.

[unome]

well said Kat

Alberto at a glance: http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/dat ... 2&storm=01

edit to add HC's update: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCFMxm7K ... e=youtu.be

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 19:09Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2012
Storm Name: Alberto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 18:46:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°03'N 80°01'W (31.05N 80.0167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 88 miles (141 km) to the E (95°) from Brunswick, GA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,455m (4,774ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the WSW (241°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 332° at 30kts (From the NNW at ~ 34.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the WSW (240°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) in the southwest quadrant at 18:55:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) in the southwest quadrant at 18:55:20Z

[unome]

CIMSS Satellite Blog has a good post on Alberto from yesterday

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/10392