This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 = -0.6ºC
Niño 3 = -0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 = 0.3ºC
Average
-0.325ºC or -0.3ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 = -0.6ºC
Niño 3 = -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 = 0.4ºC
Average
-0.3ºC
Highlights
• La Niña has weakened across the tropical Pacific Ocean.*
• Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) remain at least 0.5°C below average in the central Pacific, and near average in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
• Atmospheric circulation anomalies remain largely consistent with La Niña.
• La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by the end of April 2012.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
ENSO Updates
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC
Average
-0.125ºC or -0.1ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 = -0.6ºC
Niño 3 = -0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 = 0.3ºC
Average
-0.325ºC or -0.3ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC
Average
-0.125ºC or -0.1ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 = -0.6ºC
Niño 3 = -0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 = 0.3ºC
Average
-0.325ºC or -0.3ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
The 2011–12 La Niña reaches its end
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
The 2011–12 La Niña event has ended, with key indicators returning to neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) levels. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that neutral conditions will persist until at least early winter.
Key Pacific Ocean indicators are now at neutral levels, with values similar to those last seen in August 2011. Likewise, atmospheric indicators such as cloudiness, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have also returned to near-normal values for this time of year. Despite the 2011–12 La Niña not commencing until far later than normal (spring), the decline has been fairly typical of past events, with a peak in January and a return to neutral conditions during autumn.
The demise of the La Niña does not mean the risk of wet conditions (or tropical cyclones) over Australia has ended. While sea surface temperatures around the continent remain warmer than normal and the tropical wet season is active, there remains a risk of above average rainfall over Australia.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has limited influence on Australian rainfall from December through to April. Neutral IOD conditions are forecast for the southern hemisphere winter.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
The 2011–12 La Niña event has ended, with key indicators returning to neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) levels. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that neutral conditions will persist until at least early winter.
Key Pacific Ocean indicators are now at neutral levels, with values similar to those last seen in August 2011. Likewise, atmospheric indicators such as cloudiness, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have also returned to near-normal values for this time of year. Despite the 2011–12 La Niña not commencing until far later than normal (spring), the decline has been fairly typical of past events, with a peak in January and a return to neutral conditions during autumn.
The demise of the La Niña does not mean the risk of wet conditions (or tropical cyclones) over Australia has ended. While sea surface temperatures around the continent remain warmer than normal and the tropical wet season is active, there remains a risk of above average rainfall over Australia.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has limited influence on Australian rainfall from December through to April. Neutral IOD conditions are forecast for the southern hemisphere winter.
- MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
The latest weekly SST departures as of April 2nd are:
Niño 4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
Niño 4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
Team #NeverSummer
Thanks MontgomeryCoWx for posting the latest ENSO data.
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
Average
0.125ºC or 0.1ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC
Average
-0.125ºC or -0.1ºC
We are now Neutral.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
Average
0.125ºC or 0.1ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC
Average
-0.125ºC or -0.1ºC
We are now Neutral.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
- wxman57
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2621
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
- Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
- Contact:
Not neutral yet. JFM average was -0.7. Still La Nina:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml
The graphic at the Top is the weekly values, which have moved into the neutral range. But it's the 3-month average that determines the status, not the current value. The bottom graphic is a plot I made of the ENSO from 1950-2012 (3 month averages).
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml
The graphic at the Top is the weekly values, which have moved into the neutral range. But it's the 3-month average that determines the status, not the current value. The bottom graphic is a plot I made of the ENSO from 1950-2012 (3 month averages).
That is for Region 3.4.wxman57 wrote:Not neutral yet. JFM average was -0.7. Still La Nina:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml
Here's a plot I made of the ENSO from 1950-2012:
from pg 20 of the latest update:
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
•The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.
•Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v3b). The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Smith et al., 2008, J. Climate, vol. 21, 2283-2296.)
•Used to place current events into a historical perspective
•NOAA’s operational definitions of El Niño and La Niña are keyed to the ONI index.
from NOAAWatch, updated April 5th:
![Image](http://www.noaawatch.gov/images/elnino/elninometer-current.gif)
from: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml
Jan Feb Mar: -0.7
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
•The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.
•Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v3b). The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Smith et al., 2008, J. Climate, vol. 21, 2283-2296.)
•Used to place current events into a historical perspective
•NOAA’s operational definitions of El Niño and La Niña are keyed to the ONI index.
from NOAAWatch, updated April 5th:
![Image](http://www.noaawatch.gov/images/elnino/elninometer-current.gif)
from: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml
Jan Feb Mar: -0.7
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
How the global climate is progressing right now.
Global Ocean Monitoring: Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/G ... urrent.pdf
Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
How the global climate is progressing right now.
Global Ocean Monitoring: Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/G ... urrent.pdf
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 1.9ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC
Trending away from La Nina and likely heading into El Nino.
• A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is underway.
• Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) remain near 0.5°C below average in the central Pacific, and above average in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
• Atmospheric circulation anomalies remain mostly consistent with La Niña, but have weakened in recent weeks.
• La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during April 2012.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 1.9ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC
Trending away from La Nina and likely heading into El Nino.
• A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is underway.
• Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) remain near 0.5°C below average in the central Pacific, and above average in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
• Atmospheric circulation anomalies remain mostly consistent with La Niña, but have weakened in recent weeks.
• La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during April 2012.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Last edited by Ptarmigan on Wed Apr 18, 2012 9:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.
SOI is dropping.
![Image](http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/soi30.png)
![Image](http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/soi30.png)
- MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
For 4/23/12
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
Team #NeverSummer
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
![Image](http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/6981/nino34mon.gif)
Some forecast a strong El Nino, like 1972-1973, 1982-1983, and 1997-1998.
The warm upwell is putting an end to the cool water.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... zteq.shtml
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
More models are predicting a stronger El Nino this summer.
![Image](http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif)
ENSO Diagnosis Discussion
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html
Predicts Neutral through the summer.
Seasonal Climate Forecast May – July 2012
http://www.oregon.gov/ODA/NRD/docs/pdf/ ... e.pdf?ga=t
Analog years are 1968, 1972, and 2009. Years that went from La Nina to El Nino.
![Image](http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif)
ENSO Diagnosis Discussion
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html
Predicts Neutral through the summer.
Seasonal Climate Forecast May – July 2012
http://www.oregon.gov/ODA/NRD/docs/pdf/ ... e.pdf?ga=t
Analog years are 1968, 1972, and 2009. Years that went from La Nina to El Nino.
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
The European predicts El Nino this season.
![Image](http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/seasonal/forecast/eurosip/nino_plumes_euro_public!3.4!201205!chart.gif)
![Image](http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/nino_plumes_public_s4!3.4!plumes!201205!chart.gif)
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
The European predicts El Nino this season.
![Image](http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/seasonal/forecast/eurosip/nino_plumes_euro_public!3.4!201205!chart.gif)
![Image](http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/nino_plumes_public_s4!3.4!plumes!201205!chart.gif)
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf