June: Onshore Flow Returns With Increasing Gulf Moisture

[Rip76]

Srain, if that continues to spin below Freeport, I assume that would bump up the rain chances?
Or would it just throw everything east of Houston?

[Snowman]

This is one of those days where the more sun you can see, the better chance you will see rain this afternoon. The sun is out in Cypress! We have picked up 2.58 inches in the past two days so hopefully we can make our storm total 3 or 4 today

[srainhoutx]

Srain, if that continues to spin below Freeport, I assume that would bump up the rain chances?
Or would it just throw everything east of Houston?

Visible imagery suggests some mid level rotation near Grimes/Austin Counties. I see some showers developing near that feature, but I suspect the greater chances would be along the Coastal Areas up to near the I-10 Corridor. As snowman suggested, we are seeing some clearing up this way so scattered showers/storms seem to be a good bet E of a College Station/Wharton line as Jeff stated. We will see.

Edit to add: The 12Z HRRR is suggesting this scenario as well.

[jasons2k]

Yep, was just about to post that Steve. The rain near Sealy is moving north, which means the trough axis is still to our west. Today's round could be another good one

[weatherguy425]

Picked up .48 overnight, was hoping for more but I'll take it. PWATS are actually slightly higher than they were yesterday and skies are currently clear at my location. Hopefully we can get some decent coverage later this afternoon. As I type, showers are popping up under a growing CU field just to the southwest of Houston proper.

[jasons2k]

Same here downtown. CU field is already getting dark cores and going vertical. It's only 1PM so my bet is for an active afternoon.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
118 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012

TXZ236-237-081845-
MATAGORDA TX-BRAZORIA TX-
118 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MATAGORDA AND
SOUTH CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 114 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JONES CREEK...
OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FREEPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FREEPORT...BRAZORIA AND JONES CREEK.

[mckinne63]

I hope Stafford gets in on the action this afternoon. Nada yesterday afternoon. It was so close, but so far. I did hear some rain early this morning, not sure how much we got, but don't think it was much as pool and ponds need filling.

[srainhoutx]

Looking ahead to next week, the Euro has joined the GFS suggesting a frontal boundary sagging S across Central Texas. There are some hints of embedded short wave disturbances passing along that boundary as a Western trough deepens, so we may see more chances for additional rains next Tuesday into Wednesday. Also, there are strong indications that the monsoonal trough will creep N out of Central America and guidance is suggesting some potential tropical trouble in the EPAC as well as the Bay of Campeche in the 7-10 range as an MJO pulse heads E. We are not in a pattern like last year with record breaking heat and not a rain drop to be had, IMO.

[weatherguy425]

Boundary moving south about to collide with the slowly moving seabreeze boundary just north of Galveston island on into central Chambers county. Convection may begin ot increase over the southeastern parts of town pretty soon.

[Canebo]

Don't believe it is going to happen today for most of us. We got a short shower last night in League City, but noting else before or after. We may not be in the same pattern as last summer (yet), but other than slightly lower temps we are not far from it. Two weeks (minus one shower) without rain and counting.

[jasons2k]

It's starting - look from NE Harris County towards Lake Conroe...

EDIT: today looks good IMO. Surface winds are light and from the NE - the area with the most sun and heating. Notice all the 90's from Houston proper to the NE towards Shreveport/Alexandria. The sea breeze is starting to form. That will create nice convergence with those hot NE winds. Another mini-outflow approaching from the SW too. Plus, we're still east of the trough axis (favorable lift) too. Optimism, guys

[Andrew]

It is raining hard again on the northwest side of Houston. Looking at satellite the low is still to the southwest of the Houston so that should help with storms later this evening. Outflow boundaries once again are being spit out all around and that should continue into the night. We will need to watch where storms setup tonight for some potential flooding.

[Andrew]

Watch out Harris County outflow boundary could collide with the storms currently over Houston.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[amandamarie01]

Wow!! Serious winds going on here in Pasadena - (Hwy 225 and Preston)

[srainhoutx]

Storms approaching NW Harris County. Hearing frequent rumbles of thunder now and winds have increased with gusts near 30 mph. Tough Friday commute ahead...



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
357 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
STARTING TO SEE ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
CWA (IN PARTICULAR HARRIS CTY) THIS AFTN...WHILE STORMS ARE PERS-
ISTING OVER THE FAR SWRN COUNTIES. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE
INCOMING/LEFTOVER SFC BOUNDARIES BEING THE MAIN CAUSES SO FAR. AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE-
NING...WE MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POSSIBLE HAIL IN THE TS
THAT DO FORM. ATTM BEST GUESSTIMATE HAS THE CENTER OF THE LOW AOA
MATAGORDA BAY WITH ITS TRACK PROGGED TO MOVE E/NE OVER INLAND LO-
CALES JUST ALONG THE COASTLINE TONIGHT.

WE SHOULD SEE THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW BY TOMORROW (IF MODELS ARE
TO BE BELIEVED) AS A RATHER FLAT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE START OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE STILL HINTS OF INCREASED POPS BY
TUES/WEDS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY RETROGRADING...ALLOWING A
S/WV OR TWO TO SNEAK DOWN HERE. OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN A
LOT MORE ON THE ECMWF FOR TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD.

[Rip76]

Just drove through that...

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
444 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012

TXZ213-227-237-082230-
HARRIS TX-FORT BEND TX-BRAZORIA TX-
444 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HARRIS...FORT BEND
AND NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 436 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE SOUTH LOOP 610 AND
INTERSTATE 45 IN SOUTH HOUSTON...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY PULSE UP IN INTENSITY AS AN
OUTFLOW INTERSECTS IT FROM THE WEST. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOUSTON...MISSOURI CITY...MISSION BEND...SUGAR LAND...FIRST COLONY...
BELLAIRE...SOUTH HOUSTON...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...STAFFORD...TOWN
WEST...MEADOWS...FRESNO...BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...SOUTHSIDE PLACE AND
ARCOLA.



TXC015-039-089-157-201-481-090000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0055.120608T2200Z-120609T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FORT BEND TX-WHARTON TX-HARRIS TX-BRAZORIA TX-COLORADO TX-AUSTIN TX-
500 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
FORT BEND COUNTY IN TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN TEXAS...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL COLORADO COUNTY IN TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 455 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTATED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
MISSOURI CITY...PEARLAND...MISSION BEND...SUGAR LAND...ROSENBERG...
FIRST COLONY...BELLAIRE...PECAN GROVE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...
RICHMOND...STAFFORD...TOWN WEST...MEADOWS...FRESNO...BROOKSIDE
VILLAGE...EAST BERNARD...SOUTHSIDE PLACE...WALLIS...PLEAK...
SIMONTON...FULSHEAR...BEASLEY...KENDLETON...ORCHARD AND THOMPSONS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.
THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

[Snowman]

well those storms missed us just to the north in cypress. looks like we won't be getting lucky today like we did yesterday

[jasons2k]

Too early to make such calls IMO. As we saw last night, with us being so close to the trough axis and abundant outflows, this isn't over yet.