June: Onshore Flow Returns With Increasing Gulf Moisture

[srainhoutx]

Hi! I'm the noobie on the block as I just registered. I'm from PA and I will be moving to Houston within the next couple of weeks, so I'm sure I will be contributing to these boards during my stay What better way to welcome my arrival than to have a nice tropical sytem to track, make it so Srain!

Welcome to our local weather community. Check out our Hurricane Central sub forum for Tropical Updates.

http://forums.khou.com/viewforum.php?f=4

[Rip76]

Welcome Pa&Hou....

I was scared you were fixing to post in ALLCAPS..
Whew.

You'll understand that later..

[Rip76]

I'm almost willing to bet the Pearland dome will win out.

[Katdaddy]

Welcome to Houston and the KHOU weather community Pa&Hou! Texas weather can be quite interesting.

[PA&HOUwx]

Welcome Pa&Hou....

I was scared you were fixing to post in ALLCAPS..
Whew.

You'll understand that later..

haha nope. I can't stand it when something is written in all caps...well except from the NWS and Steve, I will be sure to check out the tropical thread daily I'm sure. You run a very good site here! I'm fairly friendly everyone, so I'm sure my time on these boards will be fun.

[mckinne63]

Guess everything was to the north and east of Stafford. The winds did pick up quite a bit, very cloudy and temps cooled considerably. Doesn't look from the radar like we will get any moisture though. Happy for those who got/are getting some. Beats last summer for sure!

[srainhoutx]

HGX cancels Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Brazoria, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Grimes, Harris, Houston, Liberty, Madison, Montgomery, San Jacinto, & Walker Counties. Watch continues for Austin, Colorado, Waller, Washington, & Wharton Counties.

[PA&HOUwx]

Welcome to Houston and the KHOU weather community Pa&Hou! Texas weather can be quite interesting.

Thanks Kat! I'm sure I will enjoy the variety of weather here. I can't wait to witness a tornado, I have never seen one in my life, that goes for a Hurricane or any tropical sytem for that matter. I'm the type that loves weather and haha I'm probably a weather nerd and I'm sure I would be up for a chase or two. The one thing I'm going to miss will be the snow I'm used to my average of 70-80" a year and I'll probably get lucky to see some flakes here. I'm not one for the heat either, so once I get past JUN-AUG I think I will like it here. Hahah don't call me crazy if there is some person walking the streets of Houston with just a tanktop, shorts, and sandals in the dead of January, because it will probably be me! Heck I've done that up here in PA when temps finally cracked 40F

[rnmm]

It looks as though the coast misses out on the rain...I am heartbroken!!

[amandamarie01]

Welcome Pa&Hou....

I was scared you were fixing to post in ALLCAPS..
Whew.

You'll understand that later..

Hahaha - PA not AZ
And hopefully he won't ever understand.

[Belmer]

Not that this is Houston weather related, but here in San Marcos, winds easily got up to 30-35mph when the gust front moved through of the outflow boundary of the line of storms to the East of me. Reminded me of Ike. Forgot how much I enjoyed a nice strong wind when it's been 100+ here.

Still a little breezy, but not that bad. A few dark clouds. A few CU clouds were building earlier, now they kinda dissipated. So not looking for much here today. Keeping fingers crossed for tomorrow as the hill country is very dry and becoming more in a drought. Glad some Houston folks saw something!

[jeff]

Storms behaved much as expected today although they did run a bit more southward than the thinking this morning...but still areas north of I-10 were hit as capping and ridge to the south did its thing. Always a joy forecasting the mesoscale this time of year and how far those storms and their boundaries will make it. At least many areas are seeing the rainfall unlike last summer and with that this time of year usually comes the isolated severe event...today it was over a populated area!

[ajurcat]

Welcome to Houston and the KHOU weather community Pa&Hou! Texas weather can be quite interesting.

Thanks Kat! I'm sure I will enjoy the variety I have never seen one in my life, that goes for a Hurricane or any tropical sytem for that matter. I'm the type that loves weather and haha I'm probably a weather nerd and I'm sure I would be up for a chase or two. The one thing I'm going to miss of weather here. I can't wait to witness a tornado, will be the snow I'm used to my average of 70-80" a year and I'll probably get lucky to see some flakes here. I'm not one for the heat either, so once I get past JUN-AUG I think I will like it here. Hahah don't call me crazy if there is some person walking the streets of Houston with just a tanktop, shorts, and sandals in the dead of January, because it will probably be me! Heck I've done that up here in PA when temps finally cracked 40F

Welcome! I don't post much but read often. Your comments made me smile.
I've never seen a tornado nor do I want to. Regarding tropical systems - the tracking, the wishcasting, the anticipation is incredible. Once they hit, the loss of power for 2 weeks gets old. However I still love the tracking.
You said once we get past JUN-AUG, you might like it - yea wish our weather went by the calendar. September can be very warm and October, we can trick or treat in shorts! Heck we can do Christmas in shorts!
Any hoo, welcome!

[djmike]

.....annnd Poof! Storms/rain G-O-N-E.....
Till next one....

[weatherguy425]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1005 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012
Models don't seem too excited about tomorrow, hoping for a pleasant surprise.

.DISCUSSION...
CLEANED FCST UP AS OUTFLOW FROM STORMS HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST.
LOWS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND WILL PROBABLY SEE TEMPS
RISE A FEW DEGREES BY MORNING AS LIGHT SRLY FLOW MIGHT RESUME.

FCST FOR WED IS TOUGH. FCST SOUNDINGS DON`T SHOW THE CAP BEING
MUCH OF A FACTOR ONCE READINGS GET ABOVE 91-93. PW`S WILL BE LESS
BUT STILL ENOUGH. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR DISTURBANCES RIDING ON
TOP OF THE RIDGE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. ALSO WILL NEED TO WATCH
WHERE TONIGHTS BOUNDARY ENDS UP AND/OR SEABREEZE AS MOVES BACK
INLAND.

THANKS TO EVERYONE FOR ALL THE REPORTS TONIGHT...MAKES THESE
EVENTS RUN SMOOTHER AND GIVE FOLKS DOWNSTREAM A HEADS UP WITH
GROUND TRUTH... 47

[srainhoutx]

1) Euro shows a well developed tropical wave, almost a depression, in 10 days about to make landfall on the Texas coast. GFS hits Florida in 9 days with a somewhat better developed system, a loosely organized depression with rain would be wonderful for the lawn.

I suspect the pattern that is unfolding is similar to what we saw in 1989. Hurricane Cosme made landfall near the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the EPAC and left over energy developed into what would become Tropical Storm Allison in the Western Gulf in late June of that year. We will keep an eye on the developing 94E in the EPAC in our Hurricane Central area of the forum as guidance suggests a somewhat similar setup. The pattern does suggest increased moisture in the Western Caribbean/Western Gulf as the monsoonal trough lifts N and multiple areas of vorticity develop within the monsoonal gyre of a broad area of low pressure near the Bay of Campeche. Forecaster Roth covers this in the HPC overnight extended forecast...



ELSEWHERE...A RETROGRADING REX BLOCK MOVED FROM THE 60TH PARALLEL
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...WITH ITS SOUTHERN MEMBER DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTHWEST CUBA...SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR MID TO LATE
JUNE. DUE TO THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
SOUTHEAST...DISTURBED WEATHER/A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH MAY DRIFT NORTHWEST
TOWARDS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. GENERAL RIDGING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND INCREASINGLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FAVORS DISTURBED WEATHER WITHIN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...AND
THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS TWO PROSPECTS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK IN THIS REGION. SATURDAY SEEMS TO
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARID NEW MEXICO...BUT EVEN
THEN THEY SHOULD BE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND
COULD DO MORE HARM THAN GOOD.

[srainhoutx]

We have a somewhat challenging forecast today as a MCS is ongoing near N Texas once again with left of boundaries across the region. Guidance is not very keen on developing anything like we saw yesterday, but with lack luster confidence in the shorter range meso models, it is prudent to at least follow developments throughout the day. Storms are firing near the Coast and the upstream activity shows some development SE as the short wave moves across the region this afternoon/evening.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

More uncertainty today with respect to storm coverage and intensity this afternoon.



Large complex of storms that erupted over the northern ½ of the region yesterday which produced the damaging winds and widespread power outages have left behind a large outflow boundary which extends from SW TX to south of Victoria to off the upper TX coast. This boundary appears to be starting to lift northward and moisture returning with radar showing isolated to scattered showers over the nearshore waters into the coastal counties. Air mass was worked over pretty good by the convection yesterday and suspect it will take much of the morning and into the afternoon to recover…and even then instability does not look nearly as great as yesterday. With that said, there is a large weakening complex of storms from Fort Worth to Brownwood with a large outflow boundary likely moving SE along/ahead of this activity. This complex is tied to a short wave over SW OK which will drive SE today in the upper level NW flow aloft. Short term meso models do not show much if any development today across the area as they weaken the current complex and do not show re-development this afternoon…possibly because the air mass has been stabilized or because the outflow boundary weakens with time.



With that said, still expect some sort of boundary to enter the area by mid afternoon from the NW/N along with some dynamics from the short wave over OK (although the main thrust will be not our N and NE). This combined with strong heating and likely returning southerly flow and deeper moisture may set things off once again. Lack of strong well defined outflow boundaries at least initially will likely keep storms isolated to scattered. Based on the current trends, the seabreeze or returning offshore boundary, may be more of a driver today than anything coming from the NW. Much like yesterday the forecast is very uncertain as to when/if storms will develop and the locations that will see the greatest impacts.



As with the storms yesterday, damaging winds will be the main threats. Wind gust to 60-70mph will be possible under the strongest storms along with hail. Dead trees from the drought were heavily impacted by the strong winds yesterday and this will continue to be a concern with such trees falling on power lines and structures.



Should see less activity tomorrow into Friday as ridging briefly rebuilds over the area. Upper level trough develops over the northern Gulf coast this weekend and extends SW into coastal TX lowering the height field aloft. This will create favorable conditions for seabreeze convection this weekend into early next week mainly south of I-10 each afternoon. For now with throw in 20-30% south of I-10 for each day starting on Saturday.



Tropics:

Models continue their widely varying solutions of potential development in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week. With nothing currently in place and solutions different between each model and from run to run will need to keep an eye to the tropics for next week.



Tuesday Storm Reports:



A large severe thunderstorm developed along the leading edge of NE TX outflow boundary yesterday afternoon along I-45 near Conroe and moved southward to Downtown Houston. Widespread wind damage occurred from this storm in a corridor from Conroe to near Aldine. A total of 161,000 residents lost power mainly from falling trees on power lines. As of this morning 25,000 remain without power.



Conroe, Montgomery: Trees and street signs blown down. Traffic lights damaged. Trees into homes.



The Woodlands, Montgomery: Trees down across the road at Forestgate and Woodlands Pkwy



The Woodlands, Montgomery: Trees down at Rayford and Sawdust, large sign blown down onto a car, Est winds to 65mph



The Woodlands, Montgomery: Lightening strike caught garage on fire.



The Woodlands, Montgomery: Numerous trees down at Augusta Pines Golf Club, Research Forest Dr, Panther Creek Subdivision.



Spring, Harris: Large tree down through a brick wall west of I-45 near Spring Stuebner



Spring, Harris: street sign damaged at Richey Rd and I-45



Houston, Harris: 70mph wind at FM 1960 and Aldine Westfield. Numerous trees down. 52mph wind gust at BUSH IAH. 1.0 inch diameter hail at IAH.



Houston, Harris: Trees blown down on Cypresswood Dr near Spring High School.



Snook, Burleson: Trees down on CR 268 near Snook



Caldwell, Burleson: Trees down along FM 1362



North Harris County (note the blowing dust at the street level):

[Portastorm]

After a temporary breakdown yesterday on the east side, the Austin Rain Shield continues to do its job well. Watched a MCS roll southeast into our area this morning and evaporate, just like an ice cube in an oven.

[sleetstorm]

It is raining here in Baytown.