Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic

[Andrew]

CMC says central LA this time around. Farther east. Ridge is not as strong and shifts west some.

[gocuse22]

This storm is giving me headaches.

[Andrew]

This storm is giving me headaches.

Agree. So far GFS is Florida, CMC is LA, NAM is Corpus, and EURO is coming in. Basically still little model Consistency.

[Andrew]

GFS is still Florida, and especially since the LLC and MLC are not aligned and the models aren't initialized with absolutely correct and certain data, just because GFS is an outlier, doesn't mean its wrong.

Doesn't make it right either. GFS just doesn't match up with reality too well for me. I mean the trough pulls out but the gfs continues to show the storm heading NE. Also every model not jsut the gfs continues to advertise the system forming way to fast. With shear so strong that is not happening anytime soon. Lets see what the other models say tonight. It will be a close call either way. Hopefully we can get recon tomm.

Besides waiting for the various centers to form a well defined center, which the HH might do, it'd would have been nice to get a G-IV mission tomorrow to really nail down upper conditions along and offshore the Gulf Coast, to feed the models right. Just wondering if the hint of a shift E w/ UK and CMC might be beginning of a trend.

Yea I agree with the mission that would had really helped. Hopefully recon goes out tomorrow. It could be a trend with the weakness being more prominent. Lets see if the EURO goes east.

[Andrew]

Euro Misses trough again.

[Andrew]

Euro is coming in around the same area maybe a little farther north but Euro is sticking to its guns.

EDIT TO ADD EURO SAYS CORPUS ON THIS RUN

[Belmer]

So the conclusion from all the models that have came in the past few hours, it looks like the shift is going back Eastward? With a possible TX landfall, but more of a LA to FL landfall now?

Oh I agree with gocuse22, this is giving me a bad headach!

[Andrew]

So the conclusion from all the models that have came in the past few hours, it looks like the shift is going back Eastward? With a possible TX landfall, but more of a LA to FL landfall now?

Oh I agree with gocuse22, this is giving me a bad headach!

No no no I don't see a model consensus at all. In order to say models are moving to the east we would need a consensus. The Euro didn't move to the east and the trough wasn't what picked up the system it was the weakness in the ridge. That leaves the GFS which hasn't moved any farther east then it already was. So as a result we are in the same area we were earlier today. We just simply don't know. Hopefully recon can help tomorrow.

[Andrew]

Euro is coming in around the same area maybe a little farther north but Euro is sticking to its guns.

EDIT TO ADD EURO SAYS CORPUS ON THIS RUN

I will say, the Euro jump from a huge sloppy low to fairly well structured in 24 hours (more like 18 hours now) seems a touch unrealistic based on satellite, although I suppose once it starts rolling, it could get pretty wound up.

Yea I have to agree. Don't see it coming together that fast. I think the euro is missing that. One thing I did notice though is the main 850mb vorticity is displaced off to the East part of the gulf and it still doesn't get picked up by the trough. As a result placement of the LLC doesn't seem as important in the eyes of the Euro compared to the gfs. Who is right? well that remains to be seen.

[srainhoutx]

The 07Z Marine experimental marine forecast continues to advertise a westward tracking very broad area of low pressure.

[srainhoutx]

Looking at the overnight ensembles, a more westward track is suggested. Also of note is the 00Z HWRF and GFDL are trending weaker with a broad monsoonal gyre low pressure. The GFDL is a bit stronger, but has switched from a more easterly track across Florida.

HPC:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
313 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

VALID 12Z WED JUN 27 2012 - 12Z SAT JUN 30 2012

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE INFLUENCED BY AN OMEGA-BLOCK CENTERED NEAR
GREENLAND AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH MEAN UPPER CYCLONES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NEW ENGLAND. THE UPPER CYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND MAY NOT MOVE FOR
SOME TIME GIVEN ITS A PART OF THE OMEGA BLOCK...WHILE A PORTION OF
THE UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4/WED...AS ANOTHER CYCLONE QUICKLY REPLACES
IT. THE 00Z GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH ITS FAST SOLUTION ACROSS
ROCKIES ON DAY 4...WITH ALL OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE 00Z
ECMWF SLOWER AND CLOSER THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS.
OTHERWISE...PREFER A GRADUAL CHANGE TO A GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 6/FRI TO ADDRESS THE GROWING SOLUTION
SPREAD. THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROJECT VERY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. OTHER THAN THE 00Z GFS AND MAJORITY OF THE GEFS
MEMBERS...WHICH MOVE THE LOW EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...EVERYTHING
ELSE IS WESTWARD RANGING FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO LOUISIANA. NEEDLESS
TO DAY THE SPREAD IS EXTREMELY LARGE. THE LOW CONTINUES TO
EXPERIENCE SHEAR ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THAT THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. GIVEN
THE MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH IF AND WHEN THE LOW WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED ALONG WITH THE TREMENDOUS SOLUTION SPREAD...WILL STAY
THE COURSE FROM YESTERDAY AND KEEP A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERING OR DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS
OF THE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW.

The attachment 06232012 00Z GFS Ensembles 00zgfsensemble500mbHGHTtropical108.gif is no longer available

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ABOUT 275
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS PRODUCED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR
MORE LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM...COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF
THE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[perk]

The NHC seem to be extremely convinced that this will be a depression or a tropical storm in the near future.This raises the stakes for residents along the gulf coast.

[Portastorm]

The upper level low just to the south of Sabine Pass is really shredding 96L with plenty of shear. I understand this ULL may sink south/southwest into the Bay of Campeche and, if so, could ultimately help ventilate 96L down the road. Will be interesting to watch.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[srainhoutx]

The upper level low just to the south of Sabine Pass is really shredding 96L with plenty of shear. I understand this ULL may sink south/southwest into the Bay of Campeche and, if so, could ultimately help ventilate 96L down the road. Will be interesting to watch.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Very good point. The weak upper low is drifting SW and may well open up an outflow channel to the N and W in time. We often think of these features as being unfavorable for tropical systems, but they can tend to influence a weaker disturbance and actually assist in development later during the cyclonic processes depending on placement or location. The broad elongated low is still meandering in the E Central Gulf with a general drifting N motion around 5 miles an hour. Any future 'Debby' will likely be around for the next 5 or so days in some form or fashion.

[srainhoutx]

12Z early track guidance. Notice the yellow line...that is a shift W into SE Louisiana from the Florida Panhandle the past several days...

[txflagwaver]

With this thing being so disorganized it's almost impossible to predict a track. Feeling more confident about it not being much more than a rain maker..if we even get that.

[Alvin Girl]

8:00 a.m. NHC update - looks like Debby will finally form. It will be interesting to see what they gather in the flight this afternoon and how it affects the model runs. Hopefully that will give us all a better idea of what she's going to do.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ABOUT 275
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS PRODUCED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR
MORE LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM...COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF
THE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

[srainhoutx]

HPC morning Update:

UPDATED PRELIM...
THE 06Z GFS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ITS 00Z RUN WITH
EJECTING AN INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DAYS 3-4...BUT IT REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER WITH CARRYING THE CLOSED
ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DAYS 4-6 WHEN COMPARED TO
THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC/UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

CONCERNING THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITS NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK...AND ITS 06Z RUN WAS EVEN QUICKER TO BRING THE LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...MODEL
CONSENSUS...INCLUDING THE 00Z GEFS MEAN...CONTINUES TO FAVOR IDEA
OF THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN
MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH TEXAS.

DESPITE THE AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEANS...INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GEFS/ECMWF/CMC STILL
INDICATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE FLATTENING OF FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WITH THE
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. FOR NOW...THE
FORECAST RELIES ON THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THIS SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTS MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT GIVEN
THE LARGE AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD AFTER DAY 4...MORE WEIGHT WAS
GIVEN TOWARDS THE ECMWF MEAN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCES FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER DAY 4.
MAJOR CHANGES IN THE GULF WILL NOT BE MADE UNTIL AFTER THE 17Z
NHC/HPC COORDINATION CALL.

[srainhoutx]

The zoomed in visible imagery shows just how displaced the convection is to the E of the broad surface low SSE of New Orleans...