Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic

[biggerbyte]

They seem to be big time pro Florida over there. I've noticed that for years now. I've learned not to pay attention to the thread titles, or amateur post, and just get what I need from it.

[TxMomof2]

I do see that the cone has shifted, but ultimately, I see they still have a hurricane coming our way. Perhaps that will change, but until Debby is ashore and gone, I'm not going to assume anything.

I appreciate the information and updates this forum provides.

[jasons2k]

It's getting to the point where the only way it could make it to Texas, is to get pushed south as it bumps against the ridge, and that scenario is looking less and less likely. The center relocations keep winning out (remember Ernesto?). If I were in the FL Panhandle I'd be preparing for a landfalling hurricane.

[weatherrabbit]

They seem to be big time pro Florida over there. I've noticed that for years now. I've learned not to pay attention to the thread titles, or amateur post, and just get what I need from it.

[Rip76]

There have been significant changes in the last 12 hourse in not only modeling but actual storm positioning/movement itself.

NHC is scrambling to catch up and expect another sizable shift with the next advisory.

I do believe this is true.
Should see a shift at 10am.

[cisa]

The worst part is that it seems over the past couple of years those big Highs dig in on top of us in July and August and push all the rain away while we roast. I was hoping we'd get some rain before that. Mother nature is a fickle old goat at times.

[Portastorm]

The worst part is that it seems over the past couple of years those big Highs dig in on top of us in July and August and push all the rain away while we roast. I was hoping we'd get some rain before that. Mother nature is a fickle old goat at times.

And there may be even more "surprises" in store. With some question to even where the center of this system is and as poorly organized as it is, everyone along the Gulf Coast is fair game IMO.

[biggerbyte]

True that.

[SusieinLP]

I certainly don't want to deal with a potential hurricane threat so this new flip..or is it a flop...is kind of a relief to me. My yard has missed any and all rain the past few weeks but I guess if I have to choose, the sprinkler option will be the lesser of two evils...


edit to add...I am not letting my guard down but plans to drag my patio furniture to the garage will take a back seat today...

[jasons2k]

The worst part is that it seems over the past couple of years those big Highs dig in on top of us in July and August and push all the rain away while we roast. I was hoping we'd get some rain before that. Mother nature is a fickle old goat at times.

And there may be even more "surprises" in store. With some question to even where the center of this system is and as poorly organized as it is, everyone along the Gulf Coast is fair game IMO.

Yeah, if it remains decoupled, we're still in play.

[singlemom]

Yeah, if it remains decoupled, we're still in play.

I *really* hope so. This is has been hard to watch, and now it looks like it's going East, esp. with the trough setting in across the Great Lakes. *so close* lol

[Scott747]

It has been 'decoupling' and taking it more towards the NE and that scenario for a Texas hit is running out of time.

Our best bet would for it to stall as the trough exits and then the rebuilding H sends it back to the W as a coastal runner with hints of a WSW movement. Plausible and would match up with some of the early modeling albeit off on timing.

[TxMomof2]

I would hate to go through a long-term power outage with temps the way they are right now. We were without power almost 2 weeks after Ike. Fortunately, a cool front moved through during that time. I don't see that same scenario happening in June. It would be HOT.

[Andrew]

It has been 'decoupling' and taking it more towards the NE and that scenario for a Texas hit is running out of time.

Our best bet would for it to stall as the trough exits and then the rebuilding H sends it back to the W as a coastal runner with hints of a WSW movement. Plausible and would match up with some of the early modeling albeit off on timing.

What NE movement are you seeing because I have been seeing only north and now it has really slowed down/ gone stationary with convection building off to the west.

[cisa]

I know it's never over till its over which is probably why I always find tropical systems so fascinating.

[Portastorm]

I know it's never over till its over which is probably why I always find tropical systems so fascinating.

I totally agree. "Debby" already has been fascinating and how it has all developed, even going back two weeks ago when srainhoutx talked about a "slop-gyre" forming in the Gulf. Gotta love the tropics!

[cisa]

I would hate to go through a long-term power outage with temps the way they are right now. We were without power almost 2 weeks after Ike. Fortunately, a cool front moved through during that time. I don't see that same scenario happening in June. It would be HOT.

Very true.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...DEBBY PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 86.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER
TO ANCLOTE KEY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANCLOTE KEY FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...BUT LITTLE MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP THE
CENTER OF DEBBY MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. BALD
POINT IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
52 MPH...84 KM/H.

THE LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD THROUGH APALACHEE BAY...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
TO THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND
WET SOIL CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL EXACERBATE THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
COAST.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1500 UTC SUN JUN 24 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER
TO ANCLOTE KEY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANCLOTE KEY FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 86.2W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......175NE 150SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 86.2W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 86.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.5N 85.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 28.5N 85.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.5N 86.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.7N 87.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.0N 88.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 29.5N 90.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 30.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 86.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]