Portastorm wrote:Strong consensus at the moment for Ernesto's east-central Mexican coast landfall. That would seem to match what some of our pro mets are thinking as well.
(At the moment) are the important key words in your post,6 or 7 days out who knows.
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012
DESPITE THE EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE WITH CYCLONICALLY
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
ERNESTO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THE WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 45 KT AND THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1008 MB. I
DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING BUT I HAVE NO
REASON TO FORECAST ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EITHER. THE SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...AND ERNESTO WILL
MOVE OVER AN OCEAN WITH HIGHER HEAT CONTENT. GIVEN SUCH
CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
SINCE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT. SHIPS...LGEM AND THE GFDL
FORECAST ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE WHILE THE HWRF EITHER
FORECASTS NO CHANGE OR WEAKENING.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16
KNOTS EMBEDDEED IN THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND ERNESTO
COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT BEYOND THAT
TIME...THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES. BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF TURN
ERNESTO NORTHWARD...AND THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE
ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HEAVILY BIASED
TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.
I saved the 5am track graphic as a .jpg and then the 11am graphic as a .jpg, viewed in Windows Photo Viewer, and compared them. But it does appear it's a bit more north than the 5am.
Can't help but think about how the models had Ike suddenly going to Brownsville after consistantly giving a track further north, then shifting northwestward. Once Ernesto reaches the NW Caribbean it could rapidly intensify and make a more northerly track. It's looking good despite its recent weakening. It's going to be an interesting week.
I'm seeing some speculation elsewhere that the GFS does not have a storm. That model clearly shows a developing 850mb vortisity and 500mb vort as well. While Ernesto is not vertically stacked, the concern is that as it approaches the Cozumel/Cancun area of the Yucatan, things could come together rather quickly in a much more favorable environment. Also, the latest RECON data is not in the 12Z data ingest, so take things as they are for this output. The 00Z guidance tonight will tend to be much more telling concerning the future for Ernesto, IMO.
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I see RECON is finding some lowering pressures now as well. Also, it is very evident that a central dense overcast is developing which is indicative of a developing cyclone. We will need to monitor this storm carefully the next several days.
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srainhoutx wrote:I'm seeing some speculation elsewhere that the GFS does not have a storm. That model clearly shows a developing 850mb vortisity and 500mb vort as well. While Ernesto is not vertically stacked, the concern is that as it approaches the Cozumel/Cancun area of the Yucatan, things could come together rather quickly in a much more favorable environment. Also, the latest RECON data is not in the 12Z data ingest, so take things as they are for this output. The 00Z guidance tonight will tend to be much more telling concerning the future for Ernesto, IMO.
Some of the other sites have been absolutely atrocious with the overall input and interpretation of modeling.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 16:16Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 15:54:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°26'N 68°44'W (14.4333N 68.7333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 290 miles (467 km) to the SSE (165°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,457m (4,780ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the WNW (302°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 68° at 34kts (From the ENE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 86 nautical miles (99 statute miles) to the NW (307°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:15:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) in the southeast quadrant at 16:06:00Z
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was listening to joe bastardi on with energy analyist alan lammey about an hour ago. he said that ernesto(ernie) as I call him is fighting in the central carribbean
and conditions will improve in the nw carribbean. however, he said he is not going to said it will not effect anywhere from houston to new orleans and I could tell by listening to his voice he wasnt all that sure going into mexico ( he has going south of brownsville on friday of next week). just dont have a good feeling about this one. the one to watch!
There is no way this storm is going to take the southern track that the GFS predicts if it keeps intensifying at this rate. It should feel the weakness well. Im starting to think that the northern models may be right. I hope that New Orleans doesn't get this one. I will be attending Tulane University in just a couple of weeks and the last thing I want for the beginning of my college experience is another Katrina.
The 12Z GFS Ensemble mean suggest there remains some spread as indicated by the 'brownish' colors to the N of the L on the 500mb chart. Also noted via the ensembles is the weakness over E Texas/Louisiana often mentioned that past several days as well.
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The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
Discussion:
While the satellite presentation of Ernesto looks very good with deep thunderstorms over the center and well defined banding features, the recon. aircraft this morning has determined that in fact the storm has weakened with the central pressure increasing from 1002mb yesterday to 1008mb this morning and flight level winds of 40-45kts. It is currently unknown why Ernesto is having such a hard time with almost all factors supporting development (increasingly good upper level outflow, very warm water temperatures, little to no wind shear, and an expanding area of moisture surrounding the inner core). There continues to be a mass of dry air west of the system and from time to time this appears to becoming entrained into the circulation and possibly explaining the weakening this morning. Additionally, tropical systems tend to struggle in this section of the Caribbean Sea possibly due to the inflow of air off South America. Anyhow, the satellite patterns continues to look good and the next aircraft this afternoon may find a slightly stronger system. It should be noted, that as stated several times over the last few days, much of the global model guidance weakened the system in this region and in fact they appear to have been on the right idea all along.
Track:
There has been little change in the track reasoning for the next 48 hours with Ernesto south of a ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic to off the Bahamas. This will maintain a W to WNW heading for the next 48 hours taking the system south of Jamaica and toward the western Caribbean Sea. After 48 hours the ridge over the SW ATL begins to break down with a weakness across the northern Gulf of Mexico between the high over the SW ATL and the high moving westward from the plains. Overnight, the main global guidance of the GFS, EURO, UKMET, and NOGAPS have all trended southward with Ernesto continuing on a W to WNW course across the Yucatan and the Bay of Campeche and then into central MX. The GFS and EURO have been very consistent on this reasoning the last few days. The hurricane models: the GFDL and HWRF have Ernesto feeling the weakness and turning NW to NNW toward the US Gulf coast. It is hard to ignore the reliable guidance taking Ernesto westward and the NHC forecast follows closely to the center of the guidance cluster, but is to the right of the consensus out of respect for the two eastern outlier models the GFDL and HWRF as well as some of the GFS and EURO ensembles which are to the north of the operational guidance tracks. Track confidence is high through 48 hours and then the confidence greatly decreases.
Intensity:
While factors appear favorable for intensification, Ernesto has struggled to consolidate its inner core and utilize the warm ocean and favorable upper air conditions. If in fact the dry air to the west of the system is the culprit for the lack of organization, then this will likely continue for the next 24 hours or so. Conditions will be favorable for intensification and the system will be moving across some very deep warm waters in the western Caribbean Sea. Again the models are at odds with the global models keeping the system weak while the SHIPS, LGEM, and GFDL guidance make Ernesto a hurricane. The official forecast continues to bring the system to a 90mph hurricane prior to landfall on the Yucatan and then weakening into a tropical storm while crossing the Yucatan. This intensity forecast is low confidence.
Now would be a good time to review your hurricane preparation plans and make sure hurricane kits are fully stocked.
TS Florence:
The area of low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean has been upgraded to TS Florence overnight. This storm is expected to track WNW over the open Atlantic into cooler waters and gradually weaken over the next 5 days.
NHC Forecast Track and Error Cone:
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Major change with the 12Z GFDL. That Hurricane model no longer is suggesting a Major Hurricane in the Central Gulf and is further W than it had been suggesting as well.
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srainhoutx wrote:Major change with the 12Z GFDL. That Hurricane model no longer is suggesting a Major Hurricane in the Central Gulf and is further W than it had been suggesting as well.
The further west it has wouldn't be good for us. However, I'm not sure why they are making Ernesto a weak hurricane when it gets in the Gulf.
