August:Hot & Dry To End The Month/SE TX

[srainhoutx]

Storms are forming as convective temps have been met from Coldspring on E...

[unome]

tks for the encouragement - I will try to keep your ever-optimistic attitude Ed


still watering though, might not hit us in Cypress & my grass was dying...

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

***Severe thunderstorms are currently developing in an east/west line from near Lake Livingston to Huntsville to College Station moving southward. Winds to 60mph will be possible with these storms.***



The tropical wave over the central Atlantic was upgraded to TD # 7 yesterday.

Discussion:
Another very fast moving tropical depression approaching the Windward and Leeward Islands this afternoon. Visible satellite images suggest a poorly organized system and the agreement could be made it the low level circulation is even closed on the southern side. Deep convection earlier today has weakened and the system, much like Ernesto, is racing westward at near 25mph.

Track:
Fairly simple on the track….west…and fast! #7 is embedded in the fast easterlies on the southern side of a ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic Ocean. The depression will move rapidly 20-25mph toward the west and cross the northern Windward or southern Leeward Islands in about 36 hours. With such a strong ridge of high pressure to the north of the system a due west track is expected for the next 3-4 days.

Intensity:
The system is very small in size which makes it very vulnerable to only minor changes in the environment around it. The system is facing very dry air to its north and west, a fast westward motion and in 1-2 days strong upper level winds shear over the eastern Caribbean Sea. It is possible the depression may be able to briefly gain tropical storm intensity, but as supported by most model guidance, once in the Caribbean, conditions will likely be unfavorable enough to result in the system opening up into a tropical wave. There is little global model support for any intensification and even the aggressive LGEM and SHIPS guidance from yesterday has backed off on the intensity. NHC brings the system to a minimal tropical storm and then dissipates it over the central Caribbean Sea. This seems reasonable, and it is possible the system may degenerate into an open wave sooner.

[jasons2k]

Storms are starting to congeal nicely over north Montgomery, etc. It's pretty dark to my north right now.

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC291-339-373-407-471-102145-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0146.120810T2059Z-120810T2145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
359 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 353 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
NORTH OF SHEPHERD TO 6 MILES EAST OF NEW WAVERLY...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LIVINGSTON TO 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...CLEVELAND...WILLIS...PANORAMA VILLAGE...SHEPHERD...
CUT AND SHOOT...NEW WAVERLY...COLDSPRING...
NORTH CLEVELAND AND GOODRICH.

[jasons2k]

40% chance of a watch per SPC...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1737.html

[jasons2k]

Hopefully they hold together - from the MCD:

IT MAY BE THAT RAPID PROPAGATION OF OUTFLOWS AWAY FROM THE STRONGER STORM CORES QUICKLY STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND PRECLUDES A PROLONGED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

[unome]

even the outflow would be welcome right now, 94 on my pc, which gets it's temps from Hooks & it always seems to be hotter here

http://wxug.us/qgls

[djjordan]

It is just way too hot today .... I'm hoping for these storms to make it down here .... would be a great way to cool off today. Can't wait for fall and winter LOL

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 572
     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
     430 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012
     
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
     
     LAC003-009-011-019-023-053-079-115-110500-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0572.120810T2130Z-120811T0500Z/
     
     LA 
     .    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
     
     ALLEN                AVOYELLES           BEAUREGARD          
     CALCASIEU            CAMERON             JEFFERSON DAVIS     
     RAPIDES              VERNON              
     
     
     TXC013-015-021-029-031-039-041-051-055-071-089-091-123-149-157-
     167-177-185-187-199-201-209-239-241-245-255-259-285-287-291-321-
     339-351-361-373-407-453-457-471-473-477-481-493-110500-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0572.120810T2130Z-120811T0500Z/
     
     TX 
     .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
     
     ATASCOSA             AUSTIN              BASTROP             
     BEXAR                BLANCO              BRAZORIA            
     BRAZOS               BURLESON            CALDWELL            
     CHAMBERS             COLORADO            COMAL               
     DEWITT               FAYETTE             FORT BEND           
     GALVESTON            GONZALES            GRIMES              
     GUADALUPE            HARDIN              HARRIS              
     HAYS                 JACKSON             JASPER              
     JEFFERSON            KARNES              KENDALL             
     LAVACA               LEE                 LIBERTY             
     MATAGORDA            MONTGOMERY          NEWTON              
     ORANGE               POLK                SAN JACINTO         
     TRAVIS               TYLER               WALKER              
     WALLER               WASHINGTON          WHARTON             
     WILSON               

[unome]

from my fav chron blogger: https://www.facebook.com/ericbergersciguy

"Houston, alas, is unlikely to see much cooling from the front, but storms could develop over the metro area between 4 p.m. and 10 p.m. this evening, forecasters say.

In addition, there’s a chance of yet another front approaching Houston next week. Some forecast models have been bullish in pulling the front all the way through Houston, but that’s unlikely to happen, says Fred Schmude, of Impact Weather."

I hope he's wrong tho...

[jasons2k]

Cell in Montgomery County is weakening a bit east of I-45...

[Canebo]

Looks like it split around Houston. Rain to the east and west of us. I know it is a different pattern this summer,
but it has been more than a month for me now without any measurable rainfall. With no rain forecast anytime soon, it
is almost time to break out the "D" word here.

[jgreak]

Yeah I know what you mean, Canebo. It's been very hit or miss (mostly miss) here in Kingwood. Trees in the neighborhood have already started to shed their leaves like they were last year during the drought. Sprinklers are a daily occurence here at the house.

[jasons2k]

Nada. Again.

[srainhoutx]

I had a 'sprinkle' in my back yard and a nice end of the day shot of mammantus clouds...

[biggerbyte]

Lots of lights and noise, but not a drop here in porter.

[texoz]

7 day forecast for Austin by NWS shows increased rain chance by next weekend. What say the weather gurus here?

[redneckweather]

Rain chances will increase by the end of next week with the possibilities of a strong front coming down. Interesting.

[srainhoutx]

I'm not so sure about all this 'strong front' talk. After all we are talking about mid August and not mid September. Will the Northern/Central Plains see some relief from their hot and dry regime? Certainly! What I do suspect is the Western Caribbean/Western Gulf may tend to get a bit more active and anytime we see a frontal boundary pushing S and stalling, an eyebrow or two can be raised. It looks like daily sea breeze storms for the lucky few and near Heat Advisory conditions are ahead.