August:Hot & Dry To End The Month/SE TX

[SusieinLP]

My yard has not had one drop of rain since that rainy week in early July....What makes it frustrating is it appears the clouds start building over the bay with the sea breeze and pass over us and then let loose with rain once they make it to the beltway or loop.

[Belmer]

Amazing! It has been raining here in Pasadena for about an hour now and I've already received near an inch half of rain.

[srainhoutx]

For those so inclined...a good chance to view the 'shower' in our northern zones...

HGX:

EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT ENOUGH (SCT CIRRUS AT
WORSE) FOR MANY TO EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY GOOD VIEW OF THE PERSEID
METEORS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SKY.

[SusieinLP]

Yep once again the storms fire up just a few miles from La Porte after forming over the bay....glad someone got some nice rain today!! Hopefully we get lucky soon!

[srainhoutx]

Heat Advisories have been issued for our southern zones and a lucky few may see a sea breeze storm pulse up late in the day mainly S of I-10. This pattern should continue until Thursday when things become a bit more interesting and rain chances increase. A stalling strong front near the Red River Valley and remnants of what was TD 7 enter the picture from the Gulf if the GFS and Euro are correct. That increasing deep tropical moisture along with a stalled boundary may set the stage for a prolonged rain event with heavy rains possible. The GFS is suggesting a broad surface wave developing with the tropical remnants meandering along the S Texas Coast while the Euro suggests a tad further S to the N of Tampico. Both models do suggest that broad surface wave to linger and the frontal boundary to begin to wash out across the N Texas region with daily storms and copious tropical moisture across Texas. Perhaps we just may see a return of the very wet pattern we experienced in mid July and with a favorable MJO pulse heading E, the days on little to no rainfall may become a distant memory. We will see.

[Snowman]

srain, I will be moving to New Orleans this coming saturday for college will the wet pattern be present there too?

[Portastorm]

The GFS and Euro seem to have backed off on the "stout" nature of the late week front. But anytime we see decent rainfall chances and moderating temperatures in August ... well, in my book, that is cause for celebration!

[srainhoutx]

For the past several runs of the GFS and since yesterday for the Euro, there have been some indications that a weak broad area of disturbed weather may form in the Western Gulf. While this feature is somewhat tied to the deep tropical moisture surge left over from the remnants of TD 7, it does appear that a combination for a stalling boundary to our N and a deep poop of tropical moisture across the Gulf will begin to interact. We will see. And Snowman, the early indications are that New Orleans may well be rather wet as a deep mid latitude trough dips S and a robust 500mb vort becomes established for the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Region. We will see.

[biggerbyte]

Odd that you mention the SW Gulf...

Take a look at this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[SusieinLP]

I see dark clouds over the bay. Someone out there may be in for a nice shower in a couple of hours.....

[Karen]

YEA!!!!!!!!! It is raining at my house in League City )))))

[Canebo]

YEA!!!!!!!!! It is raining at my house in League City )))))

I wish you would have sent it to us on the west side of League City. We had thunder and clouds, but no rain again!

[Karen]

I am on the west side must have just been in my little neck of the woods. I like Susie have watched each day as the storms form just west of me. Got maybe a .25" of rain but heck it cooled off the temperature.

[srainhoutx]

For those doing the daily rain dance and I certainly fit into that crowd, the 12Z Euro is also suggesting some tropical troubles late next week in the Western Gulf. NWS Brownsville, Houston/Galveston, Corpus Christi and Austin/San Antonio have made mention of this feature and with some increasing model support, we'll need to monitor those remnants of TD 7 as it enters the Bay of Campeche mid week. The Euro ensembles are even more suggestive of a potential wet pattern developing as the heat ridge shifts further W and a weakness develops across the Eastern half of Texas into Louisiana. We will see.

[texoz]

Saw on some other boards that models were hinting at a strong front, unusually strong for August, pushing into SE US later next week. Is that still showing up on models? And I wonder how it effects tropical development & movement?

fyi, looking around I see these 7 day forecasts for next Saturday in areas like OK and ARK I'm seeing temp drops of 10 to 15 degrees vs last week. These are non-rainy days I'm looking at as most locations just north & east of Texas are forecast a rainy pattern next week.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Hot and mostly dry for the first part of this week.



A large dome of high pressure over NM ridging SE into TX will continue to produce hot and mainly dry weather for the next day or so. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorms along the seabreeze during peak heating or along any boundaries drifting down from the N and NNE. Slow storm motions under weak steering currents indicate if you do get a storm a good dump of rainfall is likely.



Changes appear toward the end of the week into the weekend as the ridge over NM move westward allowing a downstream trough to develop over the central US. Models continue to show a rare August cold front dropping southward down the plains an into TX by late this week and this weekend. Feel the models are likely fairly robust showing the front and cold air advection making it deep into TX, but the upper air pattern does favor the boundary making decent progress under N flow aloft. While a boundary or outflow boundaries from the north come into play by Friday a tropical wave (ex TD #7) looks to arrive into the western Gulf near the same time and make landfall along the TX coast Saturday. This feature will spread a highly tropical air mass into the state from the western Gulf and will work with the stalling frontal boundary to produce a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Yesterday, some of the models tried to spin the wave up into a closed surface low, but they have backed away from that thinking overnight. With that said there is already a surface trough in the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche and the models keep this feature in that region for the next several days…so we will have to keep an eye on it to see if presentat convection can develop lower surface pressures. May also see a connection from the EPAC TS Hector and this could help enhance rainfall totals. Overall it is looking fairly wet toward the end of the week into next weekend with several rain making features. Highs will peak in the upper 90’s today-Wednesday and then begin to cool under increasing clouds and rainfall.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a wet pattern developing late week into the weekend. A stalling frontal boundary and deep tropical moisture pooling in the Western Gulf are classic heavy rainfall set ups in our part of the world. While the Euro suggests an open wave, the GFS has remained steadfast in developing a tropical cyclone slowly meandering N into the S Texas Coast. While it does not appear we are looking at a strong Hurricane, the GFS solution of a strong depression or Tropical Storm does raise an eyebrow. That model has earned a bit more respect as of late and cannot be dismissed, IMO. What is troubling is the amount of enhanced rainfall that may well be in the cards for the Southern half of Texas including our area. Stay Tuned. The forecast could be changing and rather quickly at that...

BRO:

THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT FOR THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ECMWF SENDS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO NEAR THE COASTAL BEND. THE
GFS SOLUTION MOVES A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN
DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM INTO A SURFACE LOW. INHERITED POP GRIDS LOOK
GOOD AND WILL MAINTAIN 20 TO 30 POPS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION.

CRP:

FORECAST SOLUTIONS DIFFER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
SUNDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
TROUGH AND HAS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS THEN DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM INTO SURFACE LOW AND HAS
THE SYSTEM AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDE UP THE MEXICAN COASTLINE
TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS. WILL MAINTAIN 20% TO 30% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE EXTENDED FOR SEA-BREEZE INTERACTION AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING...OR TROPICAL WAVE IMPACTING THE REGION FOR DAYS 6
THROUGH 8. WILL ALSO KEEP COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME GIVEN
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

HGX:

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A FRONT INTO SE TX LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT MON
WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING IT OFF THE COAST. THE GFS DISSIPATES THE
FRONT ON SUN BUT BRINGS A TROPCIAL WAVE INTO THE W GULF WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE UPPER TX COAST. PRECIP WATER
VALUES JUMP ABOVE 2 INCHES SUN INTO MON WITH THE GFS FORMING A
POSSIBLE WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE LOWER TX COAST. STILL LOTS
OF UNCERTAINY SURROUNDING THE GFS SOLUTION BUT AT THIS POINT
EITHER MODEL SUGGEST 30-40 POPS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM EITHER THE GFS OR THE ECMWF
SUPPORTS CONVECTION AND A WET PATTERN. THIS WILL ALSO HOLD DOWN
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID/LOW 90S WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME BREAK FROM
THE UPPER 90S TO 100F THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

EWX:

AS A NORTHERLY JET DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE DISTURBANCES MAY PUSH THUNDERSTORMS
OR THEIR OUTFLOWS INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
GFS MODEL TRACKS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE...WHICH MAY INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
GULF...IS EXPECTED TO LAND ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...CREATING A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY INTERACT WITH THESE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DISTURBANCES...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND
ENHANCING RAIN AMOUNTS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE ANTICIPATED RAINS AND TROPICAL AIRMASS...
HIGHS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
BY MONDAY.

[biggerbyte]

Yes, indeed. There are going to be several factors/players involved with this upcoming scenario that can potentially bring some big rains for the area.

[Canebo]

I will be shocked if our area gets more than a few scattered showers this weekend. The tropical moisture looks like it will be too far south, and the frontal moisture will likely stay too far north. Maybe in a month or so the fronts will get close enough to push through. Just more hot and dry!

[srainhoutx]

HPC 5 Day QPF Update: