Tropical Depression Isaac:
that trough looks to be reversing
What would that mean track-wise for Isaac?skidog40 wrote:that trough looks to be reversing
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Last edited by srainhoutx on Sun Aug 26, 2012 5:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Add image
Reason: Add image
Put the wet stuff on the red stuff!
please explain - if you post something - please explain for folks that are visiting for the first time so to avoid panic and confusion.skidog40 wrote:that trough looks to be reversing
djjordan wrote:Watched the NWS Houston/Galveston briefing just a second ago which offered their take on Isaac. Interesting to say the least.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=briefing
He did'nt sound entirely convinced that we're out of the woods with Isaac.He even introduced a more south scenario for the GFS something i've heard no one else talking about.
In my limited knowledge, I believe a reversing trough means that the hurricane will travel more west because it won't steer it north to the weakness in the atmosphere. Troughs "pick up" hurricanes in the jet stream and pull them northward. A strong front would make a hurricane curve in front of it. Kinda like a sling shot.
Last edited by Wendy 90 on Sun Aug 26, 2012 6:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
We here in SE Texas need to keep abreast on this storm and what it is doing. This forum is very good about updating the public in a timely fashion. You will find out about any model shifts, NHC Updates and pertinent information. Welcome to our guests. I have been a member of this forum for years and come to it often in times of severe weather. Don't be shy and take a moment to register yourselves.
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Andrew
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If the trough WAS reversing/ backing up it could allow for more ridging to develop and push the storm farther west. As of this time though I do not see any signs of that especially around the great lakes region.Wendy 90 wrote:In my limited knowledge, I believe a reversing trough means that the hurricane will travel more west because it won't steer it north to the weakness in the atmosphere. Troughs "pick up" hurricanes in the jet stream and pull them northward. A strong front would make a hurricane curve in front of it. Kinda like a sling shot.
http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... g&itype=wv
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Rather large file .... may take time to load so be patient, but take a look at this beautiful satellite loop of Isaac as the sun is setting.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templat ... isplay=360
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templat ... isplay=360
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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Alvin Girl
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Rip76 wrote:Jefferson Parrish declares "State of Emergency."
http://www.wwltv.com/news/local/jeffers ... 79655.html
"Jefferson Parish President John Young has declared a State of Emergency for Jefferson Parish in anticipation of the effects of Tropical Storm Isaac.
Jefferson Parish Emergency Management is closely monitoring Tropical Storm Isaac. The National Weather Service reports Tropical Storm Isaac continues to strengthen and likely will continue a westward track in the Gulf of Mexico.
A Hurricane Watch currently is in effect for all areas of Southeast Louisiana, including areas of upper and lower Jefferson Parish.
All citizens are reminded to prepare now your families, homes, and property for this weather event.
The Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority-West (SLFPA-W) will begin closing non-essential flood gates on the West Bank in anticipation of strong southerly winds and high tides associated with Tropical Storm Isaac. This is the first step in a process that will ensure implementation of the Authority’s flood protection program. As the storm progresses, there will be additional closures as the Flood Authority works with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
Substantial rain, hurricane force winds, and tidal surge are expected as Isaac is expected to intensify to a Category 2 hurricane when it makes landfall, which at this point, is projected to be 7:00am CST Wednesday, August 29, 2012 near Biloxi, MS."
Wow, this is eerie - that's the same time Katrina made landfall in NOLA!
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Convection blowing up now....
Team #NeverSummer
At Tulane University they have told us that as of now we are sheltering in place for the storm. I for one thing that is a gutsy call considering that the forecast is for a category 2 hurricane to directly hit the city in 2 days.
I personally thing the current track is too far east. The storm continues to move more westerly rather than northwesterly.
I would love to here from Wxman57 about what he thinks about the track.
I personally thing the current track is too far east. The storm continues to move more westerly rather than northwesterly.
I would love to here from Wxman57 about what he thinks about the track.
Something tells me Wxman57 is a very busy man right nowSnowman wrote:At Tulane University they have told us that as of now we are sheltering in place for the storm. I for one thing that is a gutsy call considering that the forecast is for a category 2 hurricane to directly hit the city in 2 days.
I personally thing the current track is too far east. The storm continues to move more westerly rather than northwesterly.
I would love to here from Wxman57 about what he thinks about the track.
Snowman I think they made that same mistake 7 years ago. There were several hospitals and nursing homes that did not get evacuated. I would make my own decision.
A number of the ensembles are further west this run, while the GFS inched ever so slightly to the east.
St. Charles Parish just issued a evac order about an hour ago. Don't be surprised to see further orders as we go into tomorrow across the potential landfall area.
Plenty of conference calls ongoing...
Plenty of conference calls ongoing...
I just get the feeling everyone is pretty much set on Isaac going to New Orleans/Mississippi area. I'm gonna just wait until tomorrow and see the official NHC forecast.
Ticka, in my unprofessional opinion the official NHC track has been east of most of the model guidance for some time now. It seems like they are putting all their eggs in the Euro basket. With that said, I know those guys know exactly what they are doing and have good reason for doing it. I really expect the official track to be further west by the time we wake up in the morning. It's hard to discount the GFS's western solution after so many consistent runs IMO.
I will agree with that JG.....lets not forget the EURO sniffed a far west solution for mnay days until it caved to form a consensus....since that time the GFS decided otherwise.....this 0Z package is going to be fun to watch....the 18Z GFDL already into SW LA and very close to the TX/LA border....
oh and about 3 days ago the GFS even sniffed a upper Texas coast hit....
oh and about 3 days ago the GFS even sniffed a upper Texas coast hit....
BTW- glad to be back in the saddle over here... 