Tropical Depression Isaac:

Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:05 am

Euro for people who were wondering:

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Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:20 am

I think you can just barely make out the coc on the long range from NO.

Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:28 am

Scott747 wrote:I think you can just barely make out the coc on the long range from NO.

I can see it...looks to still be tracking west...Recon almost to the center of Isaac...looks to be just a tad north of west of the last fix...

Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:31 am

977 ish...

Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:34 am

Bluefalcon wrote:
Scott747 wrote:I think you can just barely make out the coc on the long range from NO.
I can see it...looks to still be tracking west...Recon almost to the center of Isaac...looks to be just a tad north of west of the last fix...

Looking like it.

Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:38 am

Bingo! Recon just punched center on it's 4th pass...Slightly North of due West, about 16 miles from the last fix. Isaac has moved 34 miles WNW in the last 3 hours. 977mb. Vortex to follow.

Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:40 am

Yeah just passed it along that the movement is just N of due W.

977 so it isn't anything like we saw last night.

Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:42 am

Well well. I see things have changed a bit. Worrisome to see a W shift on the Euro and now RECON confirming a more Westerly trend. 977mb is mighty low for a Tropical Storm. I wouldn't be too surprised to see a W shift with Watches at 4 AM. Some folks may be a bit surprised when they wake up...

Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:50 am

977 mb would be a Category 2.

Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:56 am

Recon hitting some 87mph flight level winds on the East side.

Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:01 am

srainhoutx wrote:Well well. I see things have changed a bit. Worrisome to see a W shift on the Euro and now RECON confirming a more Westerly trend. 977mb is mighty low for a Tropical Storm. I wouldn't be too surprised to see a W shift with Watches at 4 AM. Some folks may be a bit surprised when they wake up...

I can see them extending TS watches down to High Island and maybe making the ones to Sabine Pass warnings.

Not sure if it's early enough to go further down the coast. Either way there has to be some hair pulling going on in Miami.

Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:05 am

Recon Mission # 30 just took off from Jacksonville, FL...inbound to Isaac.

Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:35 am

For the sake of the public ..... (and I've been asleep most of the night) ..... Can anyone tell me and the rest of us what Isaac had done overnight? Some of the banter has been disconcerting for the public.

Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:42 am

There have been some major developments. Isaac is moving westward again. Just tell everyone to ditch everything they have heard and believe to be true, reboot, and begin again with today. If anyone heeded the warnings, they will have already been semi prepared. We all may need to go beyond the semi stage. Isaac has slowed down, so that buys everyone some extra time. This is all developing, so please stay tuned.

Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:46 am

Isaac has slowed and turned more Westward via RECON center fixes. There is a bit more organization and the center has contracted a bit. Convection has increased near the center and winds at flight level were rather strong. The Euro and UKMet shifted W while the GFS and HWRF/GFDL were a bit E. We'll get an Advisory here in a few minutes and see if the NHC thinks extending TS Watches further W is warranted.

Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:48 am

Does appear that it has slowed to a crawl if not stalled.

Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:49 am

biggerbyte wrote:There have been some major developments. Isaac is moving westward again. Just tell everyone to ditch everything they have heard and believe to be true, reboot, and begin again with today. If anyone heeded the warnings, they will have already been semi prepared. We all may need to go beyond the semi stage. Isaac has slowed down, so that buys everyone some extra time. This is all developing, so please stay tuned.

Noticed yesterday that all the Transtar signs had been saying "Storm Developing in Gulf be Prepared" .... I think alot of people already knew Isaac was out there. This shift gives Isaac more time to strengthen and cause more trouble. Sure it's not a wobble????

Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:54 am

djjordan wrote:
biggerbyte wrote:There have been some major developments. Isaac is moving westward again. Just tell everyone to ditch everything they have heard and believe to be true, reboot, and begin again with today. If anyone heeded the warnings, they will have already been semi prepared. We all may need to go beyond the semi stage. Isaac has slowed down, so that buys everyone some extra time. This is all developing, so please stay tuned.
Noticed yesterday that all the Transtar signs had been saying "Storm Developing in Gulf be Prepared" .... I think alot of people already knew Isaac was out there. This shift gives Isaac more time to strengthen and cause more trouble. Sure it's not a wobble????

Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:56 am

TS watch extended to High Island.

Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:57 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
400 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...ISAAC ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE...SIGNIFICANT
STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOOD THREAT TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 88.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE AUCILLA RIVER
* MORGAN CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
BE NEAR OR OVER THE LOUISANA COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ISAAC IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...6 TO 12 FT
* ALABAMA...4 TO 8 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST INCLUDING APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA IN LOUISIANA BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST BY TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7
TO 14 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES...IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING.

TORNADOES...TORNADOES MAY OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA COASTLINE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Depression Isaac:

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