Tropical Depression Isaac:

[wxman666]

This is stumping me. Either NHC is being cautious by extending that watch west or something is going on.

What I dont get is why extend to be cautious if everything is pointing to a New Orleans area hit...Yes there was a wobble to the west during the night but everyone seems to not be making a big deal of it. I just found it strange as you that the watch was put up like that...

These advisories are practically extending across the majority of the gulf coast...from roughly High Island to the panhandle of FL. That is a BIG spread.

[MRG93415]

I dont know if any of you like or read up on Joe Bastardi but I am laughing at his tweets. The man is going to blow a gasket over the NHC not calling Isaac a Hurricane. He has been doing this since yesterday and he is really upset..LOL I am suprised he has not called them out on it...

[srainhoutx]

Image 9 minutes old:

[srainhoutx]

Slidell Radar long range:

[tireman4]

[quote="srainhoutx"]Image 9 minutes old:

Very nice image.

[cristina99]

I wish I had the stamina to stay up and keep up with the board. I wake up and have ten pages to read. Good morning guys. Although Dr. Frank said the storm wouldn't have to turn west that much to threaten Texas, looking at the images, it is hard to see that. However, I am after all just a novice. I saw DP posted a comment - I really like him. But I am digress.

Why is it if you guys seeing some changes, don't the weather guys on the networks mention that? I am with Dr. Frank and several of you here -- I am not going to let down my guard until it is onshore. I can't remember what storm it was -- I know there was one in recent years -- where we went to bed thinking we were out of the woods, and the next morning we all had to get serious about preparations. I suppose that COULD happen with this one.

[TXStormjg]

Oh wonderful....President Obama is about to make a statement on Isaac. This ought to be a great speech!

[TXStormjg]

Oh wonderful....President Obama is about to make a statement on Isaac. This ought to be a great speech!

Oh, did I mention I was being facetious? LOL

[michmich]

I dont know if any of you like or read up on Joe Bastardi but I am laughing at his tweets. The man is going to blow a gasket over the NHC not calling Isaac a Hurricane. He has been doing this since yesterday and he is really upset..LOL I am suprised he has not called them out on it...

Yep...almost like a ranting drunk. LOL. I've had to start scrolling past his tweets for now.

[michmich]

For those interested, fox8live.com in NO is carrying live coverage of Isaac.

http://www.fox8live.com/category/235642/watch-fox8live

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 14:01Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 31
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 13:34:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°02'N 88°30'W (28.0333N 88.5W)
B. Center Fix Location: 164 miles (264 km) to the SE (145°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,229m (4,032ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 53 nautical miles (61 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 89kts (From the SE at ~ 102.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the NE (53°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 977mb (28.85 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:17:00Z

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 12Z NAM suggests Isaac will hug along Coastal Louisiana heading WNW through 30 hours...

[MRG93415]

For what it's worth, the 12Z NAM suggests Isaac will hug along Coastal Louisiana heading WNW through 30 hours...

08282012 12Z NAM nam_wnatl_030_10m_wnd_precip.gif

08282012 12Z NAM nam_wnatl_030_850_vort_ht.gif

What is the probability of this happening? I have seen other mention of this might panning out..

[rnmm]

That is also what the GFS suggested...if Isaac does do that, what would that do for the weather for our neighbors in High Island, Beaumont, etc?

Will it affect our weather?

[srainhoutx]

We have a full package Advisory coming out in about 30 minutes. Let's see if the NHC makes any changes and then we can discuss what Isaac may bring for SW LA/SE TX.

[srainhoutx]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 14:15Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 30
Observation Number: 23
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 13:39:21Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°00'N 88°30'W (28.N 88.5W)
B. Center Fix Location: 166 miles (267 km) to the SE (145°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level (Undecoded): NA NA
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the NE (42°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 124° at 84kts (From between the ESE and SE at ~ 96.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 977mb (28.85 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,461m (8,074ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,456m (8,058ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 130° to 310° (SE to NW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 84kts (~ 96.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:25:42Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) in the southwest quadrant at 13:51:05Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NE (52°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SEC MAX FL WIND 68 KT BRNG:43 deg RNG:96 nm

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Looks like it backed up some in that latest run.

I still see wobbles westwards.

[TXStormjg]

Can I make a request to all users here? If I may, I would like to ask that we keep away from "Wishcasting," as this only gets people going. I realize many love the excitement, but from someone who has been through these storms, and seen the aftermath, I, for one don't want to see it again.

It's really cool to see big floods and rooftops flying, but think about it...what if is your roof? I don't mean to be a grinch in all this, but please, make sure we stay on topic and help to inform those who could be in the path, and educate others as this proceeds.
I'm only doing this, because I have watched it in the past.

Now, if I may once more... BRING ON THE SNOW BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[cperk]

Can I make a request to all users here? If I may, I would like to ask that we keep away from "Wishcasting," as this only gets people going. I realize many love the excitement, but from someone who has been through these storms, and seen the aftermath, I, for one don't want to see it again.

It's really cool to see big floods and rooftops flying, but think about it...what if is your roof? I don't mean to be a grinch in all this, but please, make sure we stay on topic and help to inform those who could be in the path, and educate others as this proceeds.
I'm only doing this, because I have watched in the past.

Now, if I may once more... BRING ON THE SNOW BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wishcasting is hoping a storm targets the area you live in.I don't see any wishcasting on this forum.

[michmich]

Can I make a request to all users here? If I may, I would like to ask that we keep away from "Wishcasting," as this only gets people going. I realize many love the excitement, but from someone who has been through these storms, and seen the aftermath, I, for one don't want to see it again.

It's really cool to see big floods and rooftops flying, but think about it...what if is your roof? I don't mean to be a grinch in all this, but please, make sure we stay on topic and help to inform those who could be in the path, and educate others as this proceeds.
I'm only doing this, because I have watched in the past.

Now, if I may once more... BRING ON THE SNOW BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wishcasting is hoping a storm targets the area you live in.I don't see any wishcasting on this forum.

Me neither. Definitely not wishcasting!