Tropical Depression Isaac:
Josh went all the way down there? OMG, he is one brave soul! I need to catch-up on the thread!
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srainhoutx
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Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 23:09Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 33
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 22:44:21Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°54'N 89°07'W (28.9N 89.1167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 93 miles (150 km) to the SE (143°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,901m (9,518ft) at 700mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 91° at 76kts (From the E at ~ 87.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the N (356°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 971mb (28.67 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Poorly Defined
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Fix Determined By / Fix Level (Undecoded): 1 / 1 nm
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 91kts (~ 104.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 22:10:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 76kts (~ 87.5mph) in the west quadrant at 22:59:16Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NNW (342°) from the flight level center
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 23:09Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 33
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 22:44:21Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°54'N 89°07'W (28.9N 89.1167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 93 miles (150 km) to the SE (143°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,901m (9,518ft) at 700mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 91° at 76kts (From the E at ~ 87.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the N (356°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 971mb (28.67 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Poorly Defined
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Fix Determined By / Fix Level (Undecoded): 1 / 1 nm
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 91kts (~ 104.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 22:10:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 76kts (~ 87.5mph) in the west quadrant at 22:59:16Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NNW (342°) from the flight level center
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Alvin Girl
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Can anyone tell me what they expect the storm surge to be in Biloxi? I have family there and for some reason or another, didn't get out in time.
[byJ&J[/b]
(Alicia, Chantal, Jerry, Rita, Ike, Harvey)
my name is Jamie and I LOVE the weather!
(Alicia, Chantal, Jerry, Rita, Ike, Harvey)
my name is Jamie and I LOVE the weather!
djmike wrote:Does it look to be makeing a westward jog in the last couple frames on radar? Might be a wobble, or Im just staring at it too much, but can someone else confirm?
dj i'd like to help you out with that, but i'm horrible at guessing the direction of a storm.Good luck with that.
Yeah he is a madman.jasons wrote:Josh went all the way down there? OMG, he is one brave soul! I need to catch-up on the thread!
You wouldn't believe how many different scenarios we have played out over the last 48 hrs. Just about an hour before the big change last night we were thinking about having him adjust to a few towns just to the S of New Orleans. Little nervous that this westward hint (that we went over extensively with what the models had been showing) could be occurring.
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BillytheMartin
Just got in from work & missed "the MAN" - Dr. Neil. What is his current take on the storm and current possibilities? He was also outwardly peeved at the NWS last night at 10 for them not naming it a hurricane at that point. Had never seen that happen before!
Isaac looks stationary to me. Getting pounded by high winds here at Tulane.
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srainhoutx
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Update from Jeff:
Hurricane battering the SE LA coast with storm surge and strong winds.
Numerous wind gust being reported at or above 90mph over the MS delta with a few oil rigs just offshore gusting to over 100mph. Center of Isaac is clearly defined on the Slidell radar and is very near the SW tip of the Mouth of the MS River near SW Pass. Based on recon and radar center fixes, the motion continues to the NW at around 8mph with sustained winds near 80mph. Recon just reported flight level winds of 91kts in the NE quad and a pressure of 971mb so Isaac is continuing to intensity.
While some of the models, the ECMWF and the GFS to a degree and more strongly the NAM and HRRR (shorter range models) show Isaac slowing and turning toward the WNW or W overnight. So far there has been no indication that the storm is turning toward the west and these western models suggest such a motion should be starting very shortly. While high pressure over the central US is building NW of Isaac, it may be just far enough NW to allow the system to make landfall before slowing and then push a little inland. Additionally this high may be just strong enough to slow the forward motion, but not strong enough to turn the system toward the WNW or W. For now, based on the current trends will continue to follow the NHC forecast track, but carefully watch for any indication of a leftward turn or greater slow down in the forward motion.
Based on the current track of the hurricane, TS force winds sustained will reach into central LA on Wednesday and TS force gust could reach as far west as the TX/LA border and into some of our eastern offshore waters. Moisture profile appears to be a little better on the west side of the storm than usual and this may allow a few feeder bands to rotate WSW into our area Wednesday-Thursday. Will increase surface winds into the 15-25mph range east of I-45 and push rain chances into the 40% range for any feeder bands. Will need to watch closely Thursday night/Friday as models show deeper tropical moisture on the tail end of Isaac possibly focusing on a trough near the coast.
Impacts:
Significant wind and surge impacts are already in progress and will continue for a prolonged period of time. TS force winds will be in progress for 18-28 hours for many locations of SE LA and MS. A dangerous storm surge is currently arriving on the coast with the Lake Borgne (Shell Beach) tide gage already at 6.32 ft. Water level rise should stabilize for this evening as low tide is approaching and then begin to rise again Wednesday morning for the next high tide and the arrival of the stronger winds into the most surge prone locations around Bay St. Louis/Waveland/Lake Borgne and Lake Pontchartrain. Peak storm surges will be during the day on Wednesday and the water levels will be very slow to fall given the prolonged onshore winds expected. This will lead to large wave action and significant beach erosion even into Thursday. As Isaac moves more inland and winds turn more ESE and SE, surge will focus into the concave part of the SW MS and SE LA coast including Lake Pontchartrain. There has been no change to the forecast surge or wind values. There has been a slight westward expansion of the greatest rainfall potential of 10-20 inches over SC into C LA now or along the center track of the storm. The slowing forward motion is raising a very serious inland freshwater flooding threat.
It continues to be noted that Isaac is a large storm with far reaching impacts that will last for hours and hours.
Hurricane battering the SE LA coast with storm surge and strong winds.
Numerous wind gust being reported at or above 90mph over the MS delta with a few oil rigs just offshore gusting to over 100mph. Center of Isaac is clearly defined on the Slidell radar and is very near the SW tip of the Mouth of the MS River near SW Pass. Based on recon and radar center fixes, the motion continues to the NW at around 8mph with sustained winds near 80mph. Recon just reported flight level winds of 91kts in the NE quad and a pressure of 971mb so Isaac is continuing to intensity.
While some of the models, the ECMWF and the GFS to a degree and more strongly the NAM and HRRR (shorter range models) show Isaac slowing and turning toward the WNW or W overnight. So far there has been no indication that the storm is turning toward the west and these western models suggest such a motion should be starting very shortly. While high pressure over the central US is building NW of Isaac, it may be just far enough NW to allow the system to make landfall before slowing and then push a little inland. Additionally this high may be just strong enough to slow the forward motion, but not strong enough to turn the system toward the WNW or W. For now, based on the current trends will continue to follow the NHC forecast track, but carefully watch for any indication of a leftward turn or greater slow down in the forward motion.
Based on the current track of the hurricane, TS force winds sustained will reach into central LA on Wednesday and TS force gust could reach as far west as the TX/LA border and into some of our eastern offshore waters. Moisture profile appears to be a little better on the west side of the storm than usual and this may allow a few feeder bands to rotate WSW into our area Wednesday-Thursday. Will increase surface winds into the 15-25mph range east of I-45 and push rain chances into the 40% range for any feeder bands. Will need to watch closely Thursday night/Friday as models show deeper tropical moisture on the tail end of Isaac possibly focusing on a trough near the coast.
Impacts:
Significant wind and surge impacts are already in progress and will continue for a prolonged period of time. TS force winds will be in progress for 18-28 hours for many locations of SE LA and MS. A dangerous storm surge is currently arriving on the coast with the Lake Borgne (Shell Beach) tide gage already at 6.32 ft. Water level rise should stabilize for this evening as low tide is approaching and then begin to rise again Wednesday morning for the next high tide and the arrival of the stronger winds into the most surge prone locations around Bay St. Louis/Waveland/Lake Borgne and Lake Pontchartrain. Peak storm surges will be during the day on Wednesday and the water levels will be very slow to fall given the prolonged onshore winds expected. This will lead to large wave action and significant beach erosion even into Thursday. As Isaac moves more inland and winds turn more ESE and SE, surge will focus into the concave part of the SW MS and SE LA coast including Lake Pontchartrain. There has been no change to the forecast surge or wind values. There has been a slight westward expansion of the greatest rainfall potential of 10-20 inches over SC into C LA now or along the center track of the storm. The slowing forward motion is raising a very serious inland freshwater flooding threat.
It continues to be noted that Isaac is a large storm with far reaching impacts that will last for hours and hours.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Seeing many posts on other sites stating a westward motion is just now starting to occur....
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
There is a raging debate going on about whether or not the NHC should upgrade a strong TS to a Hurricane when further strengthening seemed imminent, in order to get more attention and people moving. The NHC was known to do this in the past, while the current regime seems to strictly stick to the scientific definition based on real observations. Some have noted while warning people is good, it could also get you caught crying wolf. Personally, I like sticking with the truly accurate/scientific approach, but that's just my opinion.BillytheMartin wrote:Just got in from work & missed "the MAN" - Dr. Neil. What is his current take on the storm and current possibilities? He was also outwardly peeved at the NWS last night at 10 for them not naming it a hurricane at that point. Had never seen that happen before!
Definitely seeing a westward movement on radar, could just be a wobble though...time will tell.djmike wrote:Seeing many posts on other sites stating a westward motion is just now starting to occur....
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/
Looks like it is drifting slowly west to me. What we thought was a little eye spinning to the north & making landfall was just a smaller vortex in a larger circulation.
]BTW, here is a live streaming cam from Bourbon street if anyone's interested...not too terribly interesting weatherwise at the moment, but there were a couple of guys dancing in the street wearing capes a few minutes ago - their capes were flapping pretty good 
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/louisiana/n ... bonstreet/
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/louisiana/n ... bonstreet/
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cristina99
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Jim Cantore on TWC says it just made landfall -- didn't have a city name yet.
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srainhoutx
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HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
700 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012
...ISAAC MAKES LANDFALL IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OCCURRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...
NOAA DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT HURRICANE ISAAC MADE LANDFALL
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA IN PLAQUEMINES PARISH JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT 645 PM CDT...
2345 UTC...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH...130 KM/H.
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS
ESTIMATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 29.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH WITH A GUST TO 62 MPH WAS OBSERVED WITHIN
THE PAST HOUR AT LAKEFRONT AIRPORT IN NEW ORLEANS. A WIND GUST TO
56 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GALLIANO LOUISIANA.
A STORM SURGE OF 8.8 FEET WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT A NATIONAL
OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE AT SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA. A STORM SURGE
OF 5.5 FEET WAS OBSERVED AT A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE IN
WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI.
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 89.4W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BRENNAN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
700 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012
...ISAAC MAKES LANDFALL IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OCCURRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...
NOAA DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT HURRICANE ISAAC MADE LANDFALL
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA IN PLAQUEMINES PARISH JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT 645 PM CDT...
2345 UTC...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH...130 KM/H.
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS
ESTIMATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 29.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH WITH A GUST TO 62 MPH WAS OBSERVED WITHIN
THE PAST HOUR AT LAKEFRONT AIRPORT IN NEW ORLEANS. A WIND GUST TO
56 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GALLIANO LOUISIANA.
A STORM SURGE OF 8.8 FEET WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT A NATIONAL
OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE AT SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA. A STORM SURGE
OF 5.5 FEET WAS OBSERVED AT A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE IN
WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI.
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 89.4W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BRENNAN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Here we go! Looks to be making the westward jog now! Lets see how long this will keep up...
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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Bluefalcon
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I think it was at Pilot Town on the Mississippi Delta.cristina99 wrote:Jim Cantore on TWC says it just made landfall -- didn't have a city name yet.
Put the wet stuff on the red stuff!
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biggerbyte
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Radar indicates a west movement that includes a very, very slight northerly component. May as well just west.