Tropical Depression Isaac:
Dry air intruding on the West side of Isaac right now ..... may induce some weakening however Isaac remains stationary and still over water. Even if it were to go over land ....it's marshland in Southern Louisiana so the weakening would be gradual.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Slowly drifting to the N right now. Josh has been in and out of the very edge of the eye in Galliano for about 4-5 hours now. Looks like with enough of a movement to the N he will be fully in the calm of the eye.
HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
300 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012
...CENTER OF ISAAC MAKES SECOND LANDFALL...
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA RADAR
INDICATE THAT ISAAC MADE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA JUST WEST OF PORT FOURCHON AROUND 215 AM
CDT...0715 UTC...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH...130 KM/H.
AT 300 AM CDT...0800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST...OR ABOUT
35 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HOUMA LOUISIANA...AND ABOUT 60 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. ISAAC HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY.
A SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 MPH WITH A GUST TO 78 MPH WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT BOOTHVILLE.
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 90.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
300 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012
...CENTER OF ISAAC MAKES SECOND LANDFALL...
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA RADAR
INDICATE THAT ISAAC MADE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA JUST WEST OF PORT FOURCHON AROUND 215 AM
CDT...0715 UTC...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH...130 KM/H.
AT 300 AM CDT...0800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST...OR ABOUT
35 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HOUMA LOUISIANA...AND ABOUT 60 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. ISAAC HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY.
A SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 MPH WITH A GUST TO 78 MPH WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT BOOTHVILLE.
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 90.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
Ready for severe weather season!!
The radar really looks ugly in New Orleans....Those poor people...
Poor Jimbo @ TWC, he does make for entertaining watching this early in the morning trying to stay on his feet...
hearing reports of 8 ft of water in some fire dept - didn't catch where. Also 12 ft of water in homes - daylight is going to be bad. Looks like Isaac was stationary all night - did he move at all? Definitely didn't go north much.MRG93415 wrote:Poor Jimbo @ TWC, he does make for entertaining watching this early in the morning trying to stay on his feet...
Nope didn't move too much at all ..... Dr. Neil Frank was just on with David Paul this morning and he thinks Isaac will continue a westward drift or WNW for the next 24 - 36 hours so this is far from over and we still may see some rain out of this especially east of Houston.ticka1 wrote:hearing reports of 8 ft of water in some fire dept - didn't catch where. Also 12 ft of water in homes - daylight is going to be bad. Looks like Isaac was stationary all night - did he move at all? Definitely didn't go north much.MRG93415 wrote:Poor Jimbo @ TWC, he does make for entertaining watching this early in the morning trying to stay on his feet...
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
I believe it is going WNW now at 7. The radar is unbelievable....ticka1 wrote:hearing reports of 8 ft of water in some fire dept - didn't catch where. Also 12 ft of water in homes - daylight is going to be bad. Looks like Isaac was stationary all night - did he move at all? Definitely didn't go north much.MRG93415 wrote:Poor Jimbo @ TWC, he does make for entertaining watching this early in the morning trying to stay on his feet...
Looking like Isaac is undergoing a convective burst right now which doesn't bode well for SE Louisiana and Mississippi. New Orleans continues to get pounded. Isaac still barely moving.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
-
TXStormjg
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Poor New Orleans....those folks are getting the wrath of Isaac. Water going over the levee, and homes getting flooded. This storm needs to move the Hell out of there. Prayers going their way.
JL Geyer
Advanced Skywarn Spotter
Wings Over Houston Staff, Medical Communications
Amateur Radio, KD5YLO
Advanced Skywarn Spotter
Wings Over Houston Staff, Medical Communications
Amateur Radio, KD5YLO
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Portastorm
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Satellite/radar appear to suggest an almost crawling hurricane moving a smidge north of due west right now.
Actually, after staring at the NOLA NWS radar for a few minutes ... doesn't seem like Isaac is moving at all. Very slowly perhaps. So not good for the folks in SE La.
Actually, after staring at the NOLA NWS radar for a few minutes ... doesn't seem like Isaac is moving at all. Very slowly perhaps. So not good for the folks in SE La.
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srainhoutx
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HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
700 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012
...CENTER OF ISAAC WOBBLING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.5 WEST...OR
NEAR GALLIANO LOUISIANA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HOUMA LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA. ISAAC IS HAS BEEN STATIONARY DURING THE PAST HOUR...BUT
A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER THIS MORNING.
A SUSTAINED WIND OF 55 MPH WITH A GUST TO 70 MPH WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT AIRPORT.
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 90.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN/ZELINSKY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
700 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012
...CENTER OF ISAAC WOBBLING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.5 WEST...OR
NEAR GALLIANO LOUISIANA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HOUMA LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA. ISAAC IS HAS BEEN STATIONARY DURING THE PAST HOUR...BUT
A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER THIS MORNING.
A SUSTAINED WIND OF 55 MPH WITH A GUST TO 70 MPH WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT AIRPORT.
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 90.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN/ZELINSKY
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Member: National Weather Association
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If anything at all, I still see west.
I think the coastline of La., gives the eye, the WNW appearance.
I think the coastline of La., gives the eye, the WNW appearance.
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Portastorm
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Maybe. I've seen two different radar loops and one looks stationery and one looked west-northwest.Rip76 wrote:If anything at all, I still see west.
I think the coastline of La., gives the eye, the WNW appearance.
I'm telling ya ... as many said on here last night ... don't sell Dr. Frank short. He's been spot on for the most part with Isaac.
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srainhoutx
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Isaac remains trapped beneath the ridging to the NW. Surface analysis suggest a 1016mb Ridge over the Central Kansas/Oklahoma and a 1019mb Ridge over Central Colorado. A very slow drift should continue for the next 24 hours at least, IMO.
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TXStormjg
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Well, after a look-see on GRL...I see very slight movement...more of a wobble than anything else. Who knows what he is going to do? This is a nasty little boy for sure!
JL Geyer
Advanced Skywarn Spotter
Wings Over Houston Staff, Medical Communications
Amateur Radio, KD5YLO
Advanced Skywarn Spotter
Wings Over Houston Staff, Medical Communications
Amateur Radio, KD5YLO
Portastorm wrote:Maybe. I've seen two different radar loops and one looks stationery and one looked west-northwest.Rip76 wrote:If anything at all, I still see west.
I think the coastline of La., gives the eye, the WNW appearance.
I'm telling ya ... as many said on here last night ... don't sell Dr. Frank short. He's been spot on for the most part with Isaac.
I missed Doc last night and this morning..What did he say he thinks this storm is gonna do?
16 hr. westward wobble
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:
Hurricane Isaac pounding SE LA and MS with storm surge, strong winds, and flooding rainfall.
Flash Flood Emergency for Plaquemines Parish (east bank). A levee on the E side of the MS River is being overtopped and water levels have rapidly risen to the rooftop of homes from Braithwaite to White Ditch.
Very strong winds currently affecting metro New Orleans with frequent gust to 70mph or greater.
Discussion:
Based on radar the center of hurricane Isaac is on the coast over extreme SE LA just SE of Houma near Terrebonne Bay and is moving WNW at maybe 4 mph…and this may be generous. With the center moving more parallel to the coast than inland, the hurricane has not weakened much overnight and is only expected to slowly weaken given the marshy flat land areas along the southern LA coast. A very slow WNW motion is expected today into tonight has high pressure over the central US builds north and then NE of Isaac blocking its northward motion and trapping the system in weak steering currents. After 36 hours, this high pressure cell should move far enough ESE to allow Isaac to turn toward the N and move toward NW LA and AR.
Based on this thinking Isaac will continue to pound the LA and MS coast for the next 24-30 hours with strong winds, heavy rains, and storm surge. Heavy flooding rainfall and strong winds will spread well inland along the track of Isaac and will begin to affect Baton Rouge later this morning.
Winds:
Some locations on the SE LA coast have now had sustained TS force winds for over 12 hours and another 12-16 hours of strong winds is likely. 300,000 SE LA residents are now without power and expect this will continue to rise as Isaac moves slowly inland. The constant battering of 60-80mph winds for hours and hours will result in somewhat greater damage than usual from a category 1 hurricane especially as the ground saturates allowing trees to up root and topple. 700am winds:
N.O. Airport: 44g67
N.O. Lakefront: 51g64
Slidell: 28g49
Boothville: 43g59
Belle Chase: 36g62
Baton Rouge: 41g58
Gulfport: 35g46
Houma: 39g62
Biloxi: 29g44
Bayou LaBranch: 46g63
Waveland, MS: 46g62
Storm Surge:
Forecasted storm surge values are verifying in the impact area currently.
Listed below are the 630am water levels:
Shell Beach: 10.16ft
Rigolets: 6.40 ft
West End: 5.40 ft
New Canal: 5.04 ft
NO Lakefront: 4.35 ft
Waveland, MS: 7.79ft
As winds turn toward the SE this morning on the east side of SE LA, the storm surge that has piled into Lake Borgne will begin to shift toward the north coast of Lake Borgne and SW MS. Additionally surge will be increasing on the W and N sides of Lake Pontchartrain. Large and dangerous battering waves will accompany the storm surge. Given the large size of the wind field, the storm surge will be slow to recede.
Rainfall:
Radar suggesting 5-7 inches of rain has fallen over SE LA overnight and with the very slow forward motion an additional 10-15 inches of rainfall can be expected. Some total could be as high as 20 inches along and to the right of where the center tracks. Significant potentially life threatening inland freshwater flooding is likely.
Local Impacts:
With the slight westward track overnight, this may bring TS force winds closer to the TX/LA border this afternoon. Expect winds to increase into the 15-25mph range east of I-45 this afternoon with gust to near 30mph. A few feeder bands may rotate westward and impact our area tonight into Thursday as Isaac moves slowly into SC Louisiana.
Current Wind Field:
Hurricane Isaac pounding SE LA and MS with storm surge, strong winds, and flooding rainfall.
Flash Flood Emergency for Plaquemines Parish (east bank). A levee on the E side of the MS River is being overtopped and water levels have rapidly risen to the rooftop of homes from Braithwaite to White Ditch.
Very strong winds currently affecting metro New Orleans with frequent gust to 70mph or greater.
Discussion:
Based on radar the center of hurricane Isaac is on the coast over extreme SE LA just SE of Houma near Terrebonne Bay and is moving WNW at maybe 4 mph…and this may be generous. With the center moving more parallel to the coast than inland, the hurricane has not weakened much overnight and is only expected to slowly weaken given the marshy flat land areas along the southern LA coast. A very slow WNW motion is expected today into tonight has high pressure over the central US builds north and then NE of Isaac blocking its northward motion and trapping the system in weak steering currents. After 36 hours, this high pressure cell should move far enough ESE to allow Isaac to turn toward the N and move toward NW LA and AR.
Based on this thinking Isaac will continue to pound the LA and MS coast for the next 24-30 hours with strong winds, heavy rains, and storm surge. Heavy flooding rainfall and strong winds will spread well inland along the track of Isaac and will begin to affect Baton Rouge later this morning.
Winds:
Some locations on the SE LA coast have now had sustained TS force winds for over 12 hours and another 12-16 hours of strong winds is likely. 300,000 SE LA residents are now without power and expect this will continue to rise as Isaac moves slowly inland. The constant battering of 60-80mph winds for hours and hours will result in somewhat greater damage than usual from a category 1 hurricane especially as the ground saturates allowing trees to up root and topple. 700am winds:
N.O. Airport: 44g67
N.O. Lakefront: 51g64
Slidell: 28g49
Boothville: 43g59
Belle Chase: 36g62
Baton Rouge: 41g58
Gulfport: 35g46
Houma: 39g62
Biloxi: 29g44
Bayou LaBranch: 46g63
Waveland, MS: 46g62
Storm Surge:
Forecasted storm surge values are verifying in the impact area currently.
Listed below are the 630am water levels:
Shell Beach: 10.16ft
Rigolets: 6.40 ft
West End: 5.40 ft
New Canal: 5.04 ft
NO Lakefront: 4.35 ft
Waveland, MS: 7.79ft
As winds turn toward the SE this morning on the east side of SE LA, the storm surge that has piled into Lake Borgne will begin to shift toward the north coast of Lake Borgne and SW MS. Additionally surge will be increasing on the W and N sides of Lake Pontchartrain. Large and dangerous battering waves will accompany the storm surge. Given the large size of the wind field, the storm surge will be slow to recede.
Rainfall:
Radar suggesting 5-7 inches of rain has fallen over SE LA overnight and with the very slow forward motion an additional 10-15 inches of rainfall can be expected. Some total could be as high as 20 inches along and to the right of where the center tracks. Significant potentially life threatening inland freshwater flooding is likely.
Local Impacts:
With the slight westward track overnight, this may bring TS force winds closer to the TX/LA border this afternoon. Expect winds to increase into the 15-25mph range east of I-45 this afternoon with gust to near 30mph. A few feeder bands may rotate westward and impact our area tonight into Thursday as Isaac moves slowly into SC Louisiana.
Current Wind Field:
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Katdaddy
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SE LA has been pounded pretty good by a CAT 1 hurricane. I see flooding as a major issue across much of LA with Isaac's slow movement. We look to only have minor effects across SE TX as the forecast track keeps Isaac away us.