Tropical Depression Isaac:

[CAK]

Just to add, if you watch the radar link above, you can clearly see a north/south wobble while heading north/west. You can adjust loop speed as well and really see the wobble...

[djmike]

I have a feeling the westward movement is done from here on out! Looks to be and has been for a while now heading NW...

[cisa]

Folks, I hope we all don't lose focus on what has been occurring with Isaac. We've had this person, that person, this and that model, and the only Professonal entity that has been spot on is Dr. Neil Frank. Isaac will not move north until there is an opening for him to do so. He will remain stationary, or drift in a westerly direction, just as he has been. It remains up for debate as to when that will be. I don't know about you guys, but I'm giving just about zero credence to what the models say Isaac is going to do at this point. My advice is to continue to simply watch what he IS doing, and listen to Dr. Neil Frank. Oh, and the dead and gone philosophy....

Got Dr. appointments the next three days. May not be on as much. If anyone can offer up prayer, I sure could use it right now.
Of course, prayers go out to the folks in LA.

Thanks

BB

Our prayers are with yo BB

[meowracer]

First of all, prayers and lots of good, positive thoughts for you, BB!

Secondly, just got word of this website. It's really interesting- I can't get the pics to come up, but if you copy and paste the embedded link, you can see pics then. Otherwise, lots of reporting from citizens riding out Isaac. http://isaac.fasterthandisaster.org/

[jasons2k]

This was posted on another forum, but it sums-up my opinion nicely:

At 11pm EDT the storm was 75 miles SE of Houma, LA. Now, 13 hours later the storm is directly over Houma. The NHC listed movement is to the NW at 6mph, which is pretty much exactly what the storm has done the last 12 hours. At that 11pm advisory the listed speed was NW at 8mph, which in hindsight was too fast but missing by 2mph doesn't seem like a bad forecast. I think it is unreasonable to expect them to try and account for every wobble and stall in their movement forecasts.

Let's cut the NHC a little slack. Hindsight is always 20/20 but in the big picture, they have been very close with Isaac. Go back and reference some of the previous forecast tracks and look where Isaac is now. Keep in mind some wanted to swing Issac far left or right (mostly left on this board) based on the modelling windshield wiping but to their credit the NHC held firm.

[jasons2k]

Looking at GR2 radar trends, I think Issac is finally starting to lift out.

[Bluefalcon]

Watching the WV loop of the Southern half of the US...you can clearly see a wedge of dry air working in from the North and East, covering the East half of TX and Western LA. This is pretty much shuting the door to anymore westward movement. Would have been nice to get some rain, but here in Central Texas is 85, sunny, 50% humidity, wind blowing from the NE...hell it feels like OCT. And I'll take it!

[djmike]

Being here in Beaumont, the winds have picked up quite a bit and many WB sites reporting gusts to 30 and over. It's pretty cloudy here. No sunshine at the moment. Kind of that feeling you get when you know a storm is coming (even though we know it's not.) Currently at work in downtown Beaumont 13 stories up looking towards the LA border...looks very dark and ominus that way! TS watch has stayed firm for our area, but Im guessing taht will be lifted within the next 12-24 hours... FWIW...NHC still showing 50% chance rain this eve, TS Conditions possible for tonight into Thurs with gusts to 40mph with 100% rain and another 80% Thurs night...Not sure if this will pan out, but the wind gusts they are forecasting, I can pretty much confirm..

[srainhoutx]

HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
100 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

...ISAAC MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...HEAVY SQUALLS CONTINUE TO LASH NEW ORLEANS AND THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST...

AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS
ESTIMATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 29.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BATON
ROUGE LOUISIANA. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...
9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 90.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN/ZELINSKY

[meowracer]

REALLY neat site... http://weatherspark.com/#%21maps;a=USA/LA/New_Orleans

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
200 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

...ISAAC WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...LIFE-THREATENING HAZARDS FROM
STORM SURGE AND INLAND FLOODING ARE STILL OCCURRING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 90.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING AND THE HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER

[srainhoutx]

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2012

VALID AUG 29/1200 UTC THRU SEP 02/0000 UTC


...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


FINAL 12Z MODEL EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES

ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM/GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH A WEAKER INNER
CORE IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN THE NAM INITIALIZATION
MAY BE IMPACTING ITS WWD DEVIATION FOR ITS TRACK OF ISAAC.


...HURRICANE ISAAC...

THE NAM PULLS SHARPLY TO THE LEFT OF THE 15Z TRACK FORECAST FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z/29
RUN. THE GFS BEGINS TO STRAY LEFT OF THE NHC TRACK THU AFTERNOON
BEFORE ENDING UP REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE DAY 3 POSITION OVER ERN
MISSOURI. THE 12Z UKMET/CMC SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE NHC
TRACK TO THE EAST/WEST RESPECTIVELY. THE 00Z ECMWF/EC MEAN REMAIN
THE CLOSEST PIECES OF GUIDANCE TO THE 15Z NHC TRACK WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF RUN EDGING WEST AND SLIGHLY SLOWER BY THE LATTER HALF OF SAT
COMPARED TO NHC. PLEASE REFER TO THE NHC WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST
INFO ON ISSAC.

[Rip76]

"FINAL 12Z MODEL EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES

ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM/GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH A WEAKER INNER
CORE IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN THE NAM INITIALIZATION
MAY BE IMPACTING ITS WWD DEVIATION FOR ITS TRACK OF ISAAC."


Meaning a little West still?
a little tough to read, this one....

[djmike]

I give up on the "is it going west now" questioning.....I think everyone else has too. Very quiet in here now....

[michmich]

Doesn't seem like it's going ANYwhere.....poor Louisiana.

[Andrew]

I give up on the "is it going west now" questioning.....I think everyone else has too. Very quiet in here now....

I for one (along with many others) am extremely tired and will be glad for a break after this.

[MRG93415]

I give up on the "is it going west now" questioning.....I think everyone else has too. Very quiet in here now....

I for one (along with many others) am extremely tired and will be glad for a break after this.

Has there ever been a hurricane do this like Isaac is doing with this stalling like this and not going inland and then out?

[djmike]

I give up on the "is it going west now" questioning.....I think everyone else has too. Very quiet in here now....

I for one (along with many of you) am extremely tired and will be glad for a break after this.

I was JUST sitting here at work thinking about how I get to go home and watch TV and my shows finally. ....ANNND like many of you here, GO TO BED ON TIME!!! (Maybe early..lol) No but, seriously...THIS WAS A FUN RIDE! I'll say that. Its sooo fun and exciting to go through ALL the diff emotions one storm can make us do...lol. Love hearing everyones expertise and opinions! I know Issacs still out there and I do pray for their safety, but as far as Texas/Houston goes......ON TO THE NEXT!!! (Just not tooo soon..) OH, AND IM ACTUALLY GETTING WORK DONE TOO...AT WORK! lolol

[meowracer]

Check Lat/Lon and Trop Pts. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html I am always learning and from what I see, it seems to be going back south again, but I don't know if I am looking at the right thing. Can anybody explain, please?

[Rip76]

Maybe I'm seeing this wrong too...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/sat_zoom ... _loop.html