EPAC Season 2012: Late September/October Development

[srainhoutx]

HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

CONVECTION AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT CARLOTTA HAS
BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED..WITH THE FORMATION OF AN EYEWALL AND
EYE INSIDE A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT AT 1200 UTC...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT ON THE PREMISE OF
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING SINCE THEN. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN
ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE EAST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON
THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF CARLOTTA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/10. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 72 HR...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN
AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED NORTHWARD BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO MOVE NEAR THE
MEXICAN COAST FROM 24-72 HR...AND THEN MAKE A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC
LOOP SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE
MEXICAN COAST IN 18 HR OR SO. THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA
COULD GET STRONGER THAN 85 KT BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST.
AFTER 18 HR...INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...AND BY 120 HR THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS
SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
CARLOTTA COULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IF
THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER
OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST
SLOW MOTION COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 14.9N 96.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.9N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST
36H 17/0000Z 16.4N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST
48H 17/1200Z 16.6N 99.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR COAST
72H 18/1200Z 16.5N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR COAST
96H 19/1200Z 16.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 16.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

RECON is finding near 976mb extrapolated pressure readings with the first center pass.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN......


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 96.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO
CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 17:44Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 03E in 2012
Storm Name: Carlotta (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 17:25:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°18'N 96°07'W (14.3N 96.1167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 144 miles (232 km) to the SSW (205°) from Salina Cruz, Oaxaca, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,912m (9,554ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 129° at 92kts (From the SE at ~ 105.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 979mb (28.91 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 92kts (~ 105.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:20:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 15°C (59°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NE (47°) from the flight level center

[srainhoutx]

HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

CARLOTTA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700-MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 99 KT IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL...AND SFMR WIND
ESTIMATES OF 90-98 KT IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EYEWALLS. THE
LATEST REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS NOW
GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/10. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
FOR 12-24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 48 HR...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN
AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK SHOWS THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA MOVING INLAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND ACAPULCO BETWEEN
12-24 HR. IF IT SURVIVES THAT...THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
OVER THE PACIFIC AND MAKE A SLOW HAIRPIN TURN NEAR THE MEXICAN
COAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION UNTIL
THE CENTER IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST FOR THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
TO DISRUPT THE STORM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
PREMISE THAT IT WILL BE ANOTHER 6 HR BEFORE THIS HAPPENS AND THAT
THE PEAK INTENSITY WILL BE NEAR 90 KT. THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.
AFTER THIS...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST HAS CAUSED A SIGNIFICANT
REVISION TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS NOW A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN TWO EXTREMES. THE FIRST EXTREME... SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IS THAT CARLOTTA WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE SECOND EXTREME...SUPPPORTED
BY THE GFDL...HWRF...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IS THAT CARLOTTA
WILL STAY OVER ENOUGH WATER TO MAINTAIN SOME OF ITS INTENSITY. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS
MODEL.

THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 14.8N 96.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.7N 97.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 16.4N 98.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/0600Z 16.7N 99.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1800Z 16.8N 100.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 18/1800Z 16.5N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 16.5N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 16.0N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

Nearing landfall very close to Puerto Angel

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
500 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...EYE OF CARLOTTA JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO VERY NEAR PUERTO
ANGEL...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 96.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...CARLOTTA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 99.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT

[srainhoutx]

The Euro is suggesting another EPAC Hurricane near the 4th of July

[srainhoutx]

96E continues to improve in structure and is now a Mandarin. The GFS is also suggesting a second stronger Hurricane developing in the longer range as a future Daniel heads W...

[srainhoutx]

It appears 96E is well on the way to becoming a depression, if it isn't already. The 12Z suite still suggests an even stronger cyclone developing next week just W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 AM PDT WED JUL 04 2012

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 105.5W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 AM PDT THU JUL 05 2012

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 110.5W
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 PM PDT THU JUL 05 2012

DANIEL HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT
ALONG WITH A RATHER SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN. A BLEND OF THE
TAFB/SAB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KT. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER WARM WATER.
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE SHIPS INDEX
GIVING A 26 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL. IN A FEW DAYS...DANIEL WILL LIKELY BE MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.

DANIEL IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND MORE TOWARD THE WEST...WITH AN
ESTIMATE OF 280/11. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A
TRACK TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER
IS THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE FASTER
THAN BEFORE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 14.2N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 14.5N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 14.8N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 15.1N 117.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 15.3N 119.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 15.7N 124.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 16.5N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012

BANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASING NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF MEXICO. VISIBLE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THUS...THE LOW IS NOW BEING
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND GIVEN AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT BASED ON A T2.0 FROM TAFB.

THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING WITH VERY WARM SSTS AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...WITH THE SHIPS
INDEX INDICATING A 42 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING. IT IS
PUZZLING WHY THE GFDL/HWRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING WITH THIS
CYCLONE GIVEN SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND THE NHC FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE AND THE
SHIPS MODEL. COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND IN ABOUT
FIVE DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13. A LARGE RIDGE OVER MEXICO
AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN A FEW
DAYS TIME...SOME OF THE MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE AROUND 115W...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND MORE POLEWARD MOTION OF THE
CYCLONE. THE MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE AT LONG RANGE...AND THUS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE TRACK MODEL
CONSENSUS...TVCN.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 9.9N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 10.4N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 11.1N 106.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 11.8N 108.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 12.5N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 13.7N 114.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 15.0N 118.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 16.0N 121.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$

[srainhoutx]

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...EMILIA HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY FROM A
CATEGORY ONE TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION EPISODE HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED...SPECIFYING THE
PRECISE TIMING OF THIS EVENT IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 85 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND RECENT ADT ESTIMATES
SUGGEST THAT EMILIA MIGHT BE STRONGER. HOWEVER THE EYE HAS BECOME
LESS WELL-DEFINED ON RECENT IR IMAGES...SO IT IS PROBABLY BEST TO
BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE ON THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME.
EMILIA SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN RELATIVELY LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING SEEMS
LIKELY...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS IS ABOVE ALL OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ASSUMING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO LEVEL OFF AND SLOWLY DECREASE IN 24-36
HOURS. AS ALWAYS...HOWEVER...OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE IS QUITE LIMITED.

EMILIA CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THE CURRENT
MOTION IS ABOUT 290/10. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF MODEL TRACK PREDICTION. THIS IS A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 12.6N 109.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 13.0N 111.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 13.6N 113.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 14.1N 115.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 14.6N 117.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 15.4N 120.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 16.3N 124.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 17.0N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[srainhoutx]

It appears the a TD or even TS Kristy is forming about 200 miles SSW of Manzanillo, MX this morning and that tropical moisture may add to our sensible weather here in Texas over the next 5-7 days...

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
800 AM PDT WED SEP 12 2012

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD SOUTH OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS UNCERTAIN...AND IT IS A BLEND BETWEEN ASCAT DATA HOURS
AGO...AN AMSU-B PASS AT 1002 UTC...AND RECENT VISIBLE PICTURES.

THE CLOUD PATTERN...ALTHOUGH LARGE...DOES NOT HAVE ORGANIZED BANDING
FEATURES YET...BUT THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL
QUADRANTS. BOTH GLOBAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS FORECAST AN INCREASE
IN THE SHEAR FAVORING ONLY SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS...AND WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION THROUGH 5 DAYS WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND HEAVILY BIASED TO THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 16.7N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 17.1N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 17.7N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 18.2N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 19.0N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 21.0N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 25.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
200 PM PDT WED SEP 12 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER. BASED ON ASCAT
RETRIEVALS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS. KRISTY ONLY
HAS A COUPLE OF DAYS WITHIN RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR BEFORE THE
CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THESE TWO DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY THE
STATISTICAL MODEL LGEM. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...KRISTY
SHOULD HAVE BECOME A REMNANT LOW.

THE CENTER BECAME MORE VISIBLE IN MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY
TODAY...AND IT WAS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. KRISTY IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED. ACTUALLY...THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
SINCE THE GFDL AND THE GFS ARE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RATHER
WIDE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE HWRF AND THE ECMWF ARE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE. THE NHC FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE BIT
NORTHWARD FROM THIS MORNING BASED ON THE INITIAL LOCATION...BUT IN
GENERAL IS BIASED TOWARD THE ECMWF/HWRF SOLUTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 18.2N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 20.0N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 23.5N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 25.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1800Z 26.0N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA