http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 985 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...
ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY.
2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
SQUALLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
Invest 93L: In Gulf By TX - 0 %
Last edited by srainhoutx on Mon Sep 17, 2012 7:31 am, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: edit title
Reason: edit title
- srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19620
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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Now Invest 93L. I'll Edit the Title...
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END
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
- srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19620
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 161840
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1840 UTC SUN SEP 16 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932012) 20120916 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120916 1800 120917 0600 120917 1800 120918 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.8N 95.8W 26.4N 95.2W 27.5N 93.6W 28.3N 91.2W
BAMD 25.8N 95.8W 28.0N 93.6W 31.0N 91.2W 34.5N 88.6W
BAMM 25.8N 95.8W 27.4N 94.6W 29.4N 92.5W 31.5N 89.7W
LBAR 25.8N 95.8W 26.7N 94.5W 28.1N 92.9W 30.0N 90.9W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 28KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120918 1800 120919 1800 120920 1800 120921 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.1N 88.4W 30.8N 83.2W 33.9N 79.3W 36.4N 74.9W
BAMD 38.7N 83.6W 50.0N 70.0W 58.1N 49.5W 57.0N 25.5W
BAMM 33.7N 85.5W 39.6N 75.0W 46.7N 67.3W 54.7N 58.8W
LBAR 32.6N 87.7W 39.5N 75.7W 49.3N 65.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 49KTS 34KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 27KTS 28KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.8N LONCUR = 95.8W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 96.4W DIRM12 = 42DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 24.7N LONM24 = 97.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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interesting 20% right off the bat, something to watch.
- srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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Texas Coastal radars are starting to show some banding developing N of a broad low slowly moving NE about 150 miles SSE of Corpus. While this disturbance will be highly sheared as the upper trough swings E, there remains a chance of some development prior to moving inland Tuesday along the Louisiana Coast.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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who wins the battle? allison is that you?