November: Warm and Dry To End The Month

[Portastorm]

Indeed, and as you have well documented the last few days srainhoutx, the models have shown this scenario consistently. I believe a pattern change is definitely on the way. "Stepping down"

[wxman57]

My cold-mongering coworker sees the change coming, too. Latest GFS still has a cold 500mb pattern developing as November ends.

[sambucol]

What kind of temps are we talking here?

[srainhoutx]

Too soon to tell about those temps. We're still 7-10 out in model world. What is interesting are the stronger signals of a +PNA Ridge popping along the W Coast with a cross polar flow as well as a deepening trough developing into the Great Basin with a noisy sub tropical jet added to the mix as well. That is a rather strong hint of a Winter Storm potential somewhere in the Southern/Central Rockies/Southern Plains.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro is also advertising a +PNA Ridge and a deepening trough in the Great Basin during the 168 hour time frame. It is becoming a bit more certain that an Arctic airmass that has been building in the Yukon Territory will become S into the Intermountain West and Plains. The euro is also onboard wit a strong signal suggesting a Winter Storm potential somewhere in the Rocky Mountain States and the Southern Plains as the STJ becomes involved bringing moisture from the Eastern Pacific over that shallow Arctic airmasss.

The attachment 11192012 12Z Euro f168.gif is no longer available

[wxman57]

What kind of temps are we talking here?

Nothing extreme, I'd think. Maybe close to freezing at IAH. Huntsville already saw freezing temps last week.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

YES YES YES! Best time of the year coming up.

Give me a Low of 25 and a High of 40-45 and I'll be happy. I love running in cold weather.

[SusieinLP]

I want to know if we will get some rain....soon?

[tireman4]

YES YES YES! Best time of the year coming up.

Give me a Low of 25 and a High of 40-45 and I'll be happy. I love running in cold weather.

You dang right.

[wxman57]

YES YES YES! Best time of the year coming up.

Give me a Low of 25 and a High of 40-45 and I'll be happy. I love running in cold weather.

You dang right.

You two are nuts. I could never run well in temps below 75 - my lungs hurt in cold weather. The only good cold weather is weather cold enough for snow. But let's keep that up in Colorado so I can only experience it when I want to go skiing.

12Z Euro has a high in the upper 60s here on the 28th and a low around 50 on the 29th. Nothing really cold showing up out to 10 days yet.

[Katdaddy]

LOL Wxman57! Anything colder than 65F is to cold for me to run. I am ready for the 90s but would to love another SE TX snowfall. I will enjoy this warm Thanksgiving weather.

[David Paul]

There are two majic numbers when it comes to Houston weather and me. Below 57f the mosquitos will not bite, and below 52f your body does not have to waste energy cooling itself while you run allowing you to set your best time. And then of course there's the majic of 32f. Cheers!

[nuby3]

isn't there normally a second front that is stronger than the first when we get these arctic fronts after a warm spell? the first one will make it cool again, and the second one will make it colder about 3-5 days later after a quick warm up. cold december maybe? and for the record anything between 42 and 48 is perfect running temperature in my opinion. : )

[weatherguy425]

Already, the GFS is back to its craziness. 0z run holds off on any arctic intrusion until late in the run... and even then the cold air is held up in the northern tier by a more zonal flow. No southern stream storm on this run either. Just one run though...hopefully it flips back,awaiting the Euro.

[srainhoutx]

I wouldn't worry too much about the operational guidance flip flopping. We see that happen almost every year with pattern changing events. The Ensembles are really the key and much more suggestive of this pattern change and that cold air lurking to our N in Canada dropping S.

00Z Euro:

06Z GFS:

[srainhoutx]

The HPC made no major changes today after the 12Z suite of model guidance. A weak front will slip by on Friday and the stronger push of colder air should enter the region next Tuesday/Wednesday.

[srainhoutx]

It appears that a rather progressive pattern is ahead once we get past Thanksgiving with an active NW flow that will bring cold fronts and even some rain chances as we end November and begin December. A cold front will pass through the area early Friday knocking temps back down to the 60’s for highs and upper 30’s/low 40’s Saturday night. A brief warm up is ahead as we enter a roller coaster pattern of active fronts and embedded short wave disturbances traversing the Lone Star State next week. A second strong push of cold air should arrive next Tuesday with another shot of cold air and even better rain chances next Thursday as an upper air feature swings past with yet a third cold front to end November.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST WED NOV 21 2012

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE AND GENERALLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT IS FCST
THROUGH PERIOD. ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE RETURN FROM WRN/CENTRAL GULF...WHICH IS NOT PROBABLE UNTIL
AT LEAST LATE DAY-5/25TH-26TH...AND MORE LIKELY DAY-6/26TH-27TH. BY
LATE DAY-5 AND EARLY DAY-6...OPEN-WAVE REMNANTS OF GULF OF AK
CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING SEWD OVER NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. MAIN
CONCERN NOW APPEARS TO BE MID-LATE DAY-6 OVER PORTIONS E TX AND
ARKLATEX REGION...PERHAPS MANIFEST AS
WELL-ORGANIZED...LOW-CAPE/STG-SHEAR NOCTURNAL EVENT.

SLGT DISAGREEMENT IS EVIDENT ON TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF DAY-6 UPPER WAVE
AND RELATED SFC FRONTAL ZONE AMONG ECMWF/SPECTRAL AND MOST MREF
MEMBERS. HOWEVER...PROGS GENERALLY CONCUR WITH JUXTAPOSITION OF
100+ KT 250-MB JET MAX...FAVORABLY STG DEEP SHEAR...HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT...INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM SECTOR INTRUDED BY STG COLD
FRONT...AND PREFRONTAL DEW POINTS REACHING 60S F. SUCH SCENARIOS
TYPICALLY YIELD AOA 30% COOL-SEASON/TOTAL-SVR RESULTS. SIMILAR
POTENTIAL MAY CARRY OVER INTO DAY-7/27TH-28TH OVER PORTIONS
MID-SOUTH...TN VALLEY AND/OR CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
HOWEVER...PHASE UNCERTAINTIES IN KEY FEATURES -- BOTH SFC AND UPPER
AIR -- ARE LARGE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE UNCONDITIONAL 30% AREA THEN.

..EDWARDS.. 11/21/2012

[texoz]

Austin Mabry has no rainfall in November.
October had amounts of 0.12, 0.12, 0.09, 0.11, and 0.52 for a total of 0.96 at Mabry.

Austin Bergstrom, no rainfall in November.
October's total was 0.84

Central Texas needs some rain asap.

[srainhoutx]

Austin Mabry has no rainfall in November.
October had amounts of 0.12, 0.12, 0.09, 0.11, and 0.52 for a total of 0.96 at Mabry.

Austin Bergstrom, no rainfall in November.
October's total was 0.84

Central Texas needs some rain asap.

It's not just Austin, texoz. The entire State is getting that drought look again. An e-mail from Jeff earlier this week:

Zonal pattern aloft will support slowly modifying temperatures this week with little chance of rainfall until maybe Friday.

Ridge of high pressure over the eastern US will slowly move east allowing better onshore winds to develop and a slow but steady return of low level moisture. Overnight lows this morning in the 40’s will warm into the mid to upper 50’s by the end of the week with afternoon highs in the low 70’s today warm to near 80 by Thursday. There will be no chance of rainfall through Thursday.

Next storm system off the NW Pacific coast this morning will move into the northern plains late this week with a weak cold front moving into TX on Thanksgiving Day. This front should reach our area on Friday and modest pooling of moisture ahead of this boundary may result in a 20-30% chance of rainfall on Friday. Models continue to waffle back and forth with the idea of this front pushing through the area and what if any rainfall occurs. Current thinking is that the boundary will limp off the coast before stalling and provide at least a chance of showers on Friday. Little to no cooling behind the boundary as the main thrust of cold air is well off to our NE. Just beyond the extended range period there is some hints at a pattern change to support a larger more significant dump of colder air southward into the US.

Increasing Drought Conditions:
After a wet spring and summer, the fall months have turned increasingly dry across TX. October 2012 ended as the 9th driest October on record across the state and thus far November has been very dry with only .57 of an inch of rainfall recorded at BUSH IAH (-1.96) and College Station only .40 of an inch. The US Drought Monitor update last week (11-13-12) shows the development of abnormally dry conditions across all of SE TX and the adding of moderate drought for the SE ½ of Harris, all of Galveston, Liberty, and Chambers counties. Rainfall surpluses for 2012 have nearly been erased in the last 2 months as rains have shut off allowing strong October and early November deficits to balance out the early and mid year surpluses. The development of dry conditions is also noted in the KBDI values showing widespread values of 600-700 over the SE 1/3 of SE TX suggesting vegetation health is starting to suffer and the threat for wildfire activity is increasing.

While drought condition were largely ended in SE TX this past spring and summer, much of the rest of the state has continued to suffer through drought from 2010-2011 and several areas especially in W and C TX and now entering into their 3rd straight year of drought.

Outlook:
The global factors that produced the incredible 2011 drought remain in place and in many areas of the state, while the drought of 2011 was eased it was not ended with the past spring and summer wet weather and water supply lakes especially in west and central TX remain at dangerously low levels. The failure of ENSO warm conditions (El Nino) to fully develop and support weather pattern teleconnection changes into the southern plains thus far this fall are concerning. With the overall background pattern supportive of a dry southern plains climate and this not likely to change for the next several years, a continuation of the long term drought and increased severity of drought appears at least possible this winter into next spring. Expected above normal rainfall this winter and next spring looks less likely with the failure of El Nino development and in fact the current pattern of such little rainfall over the past 6 weeks is very similar to the fall of 2010 (or the start of the 2011 drought). Given already low lake storage levels and significantly low soil moisture values over much of the state, lack of winter rainfall in 2012-2013 will have significant impacts and there is potential for severe or even exceptional drought development by spring.

Additionally, with winter freezes upon the region and the curing of fine fuels, the threat for increased wildfire activity is likely without widespread wetting rainfall. KBDI values are already above 600 in several counties with values above 700 considered critical. Vegetation health already stressed from the 2011 drought will suffer if rainfall remains on the low side prior to the onset of warmer temperatures next spring. Critical fire weather days behind cold frontal passages will be increasing if widespread rains do not occur.

Lake Storage Conditions:
Lake Buchanan: -25.07 (43%)
Lake Conroe: -3.23 (85%)
Lake Houston: -.24 (97%)
Lake Livingston: -.62 (97%)
Lake Travis: -48.26 (40%)
Sam Rayburn: -4.41 (83%)
Lake Somerville: -2.21 (84%)
Lake Texana: -1.73 (90%)
Toledo Bend: -4.28 (84%)

Total state of Texas water storage supply is at 65.97% which is down from 68.10% a month ago and 77.68% 6 months ago.

Harris County Ground Water Well trace since May 2012:

[texoz]

srainhoutx,
yikes, that is some unpleasant reading.