JackCruz wrote:80 degrees today and possibly tomorrow too! Summer's back, hopefully it stays.. what pattern change? Lol
Personally, I'm loving this warm and sunny weather. Guess I better soak it in while I can.
Extended periods of cold weather depresses me. In southeast Texas this usually means exactly that, just cold, uncomfortable weather with no sleet or snow. I always remember 1983 with sub-freezing temperatures for many days. Not one flake or sleet pellet did I see fall, just drizzle. Down here we have that warm layer, which came into play when we had our last threat of snow, only to see freezing rain.
Now if only every winter day was as warm as today. Though I don't think the 12Z GFS has the solution correct for next week yet, it's interesting to see it's predictions of 6am and 6pm temps for that week and beyond. Remember, these aren't the projected highs and lows.
There's a reason there are 4 seasons. There are reasons why I can love and loathe Houston. Cesspool 80 degree Winter weather is one reason I can loathe Houston.
Its okay to have 2-4 weeks of cold air per year to help balance things out. Good Lord... its hell on earth here from May to early October. Let us sane folks have our cold air for just a sliver of the year.
Forecast over the next week will be filled with rapid changes as several powerful weather systems move across the central part of the US.
High pressure is shifting eastward today allowing the return of onshore winds and influx of western Gulf of Mexico moisture. Strong upper level trough will dive into the southern plains tonight and Wednesday with rapid deepening of low pressure over the TX/OK panhandle region. Strong pressure falls will result in strong onshore winds developing on Wednesday with sustained S winds of 15-25mph and gust to 30-35mph. Already starting to see northward moving cloud cover SSE of Brownsville and this moisture/cloud cover will advect rapidly northward tonight and early Wednesday. Shallow moist layer will be capped off by SW winds above the surface suggesting only a slight chance of drizzle or light rain on Wednesday. Big changes blast into the region on Wednesday night as warm temperatures with highs in the upper 70’s and low 80’s on Wednesday is quickly ended by a strong cold front.
Front should rapidly cross the region with the possibility of a thin line of showers and may be a thunderstorms mainly along and SE of US 59. Of greater issue appears to be very strong WNW to NW surface winds on Thursday as the deepening storm system to our NE spreads a strong gradient across our area. Winds of 20-30mph with gust to 40mph will be possible and this coupled with rapid surface drying will support an enhanced fire danger situation across our NW and W counties where rainfall on Sunday was on the lighter side. Fine fuels have been cured by freezes last week and overall conditions are dry so the spread of wildfire will be high on Thursday. Could be near critical fire weather conditions and Red Flag Warning criteria from College Station toward Victoria on Thursday. Other big change will be a cold Canadian air mass pouring into the region with highs on Thursday in the 50’s under mainly sunny skies…or nearly a 20-25 degree drop from Wednesday.
Light freeze is likely early Friday morning for most areas NW of US 59, but no freeze warning will be required as all of these areas froze multiple mornings last week. Quick hitting cold air mass begins to shift east on Friday afternoon as the next storm system digs down into the SW US. Winds will swing back around to the SE late Friday and the process starts all over again.
Should see a fairly rapid influx of moisture over next weekend with a chance for a few showers in the strong warm air advection pattern over TX. A powerful upper trough will develop over the Rockies and is expected to bring an “impactful” winter storm to the central US the week of Christmas. Models continue to struggle with the longer range prospects on both the amount of rainfall and the amount of cold air. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs have trended warmer with the storm system suggesting a better severe weather versus winter weather event. With that said, there is some mighty cold air that has been bottled up over NW Canada for weeks now and it remains possible that some of this could become ingested into the system. Would not be expecting winter precipitation threat into this region, but for N and NC TX there is some potential around Christmas into the days following Christmas. For now will go with a fairly warm and increasing wet pattern from Saturday into Christmas Day with lows in the 60’s and highs in the 70’s under 30-40% rain chances. Rain chances look to really increase Christmas Day into the 26th ahead of a potentially very strong cold front which could bring freezing temperatures to a large part of the area following Christmas.
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JackCruz wrote:Watch all this talk about sleet/freezing rain and "really cold" temps turn out to be highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows to just around 34 degrees.
For what it's worth at this range, the 12Z Euro ensembles are much further S than the operational guidance suggested. That said there remains a large spread in the Global Ensembles on exactly how far S into California the storm system will dig as well as how fast or slow that storm complex will begin to trek E.
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I agree that the 12Z Euro looks quite odd. I expect considerable model divergence and flip-floppiness to continue for another 3-4 days. Perhaps by Saturday or Sunday we might have better model consensus on next week.
I agree that the 12Z Euro looks quite odd. I expect considerable model divergence and flip-floppiness to continue for another 3-4 days. Perhaps by Saturday or Sunday we might have better model consensus on next week.
This is what I told my heat miser wife today. I said "ask me again on Saturday"... LOL
Christmas 2010 and 2011 had rain. If it rains on Christmas, it would be third time in the row that happens. The Ghost of Christmas Past could be paying a visit next week.
Christmas Day Rain at KIAH
2010 Trace
2011 0.19
2009 0
2008 0
Also one thing to keep an eye on is models especially in this range often move the colder air east too quickly. 00z run shows the colder air sinking south and then moving east relatively fast. This should be monitored especially with the expected blocking North of the Great Lakes.
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I'm with AZ on this one! You keep cheering on the snow for me, ok?! Woke up feeling like summer this morning, yesterday morning it was jackets! What the heck! lol
Enjoy the warm weather today because tomorrow morning will feel much different. A strong Canadian front will arrive tonight during the overnight hours with the high temps for Thursday likely to be set after mid night the dropping into the 40's with very gusty N/NW winds and temps crashing to freezing by Thursday night/early Friday. The is a chance of showers and isolated stronger storms overnight as the cold front races SE and clears the Coast by daybreak. The SPC has a Slight Risk for severe storms to our N and E in NE TX/Louisiana/Arkansas as well.
Now looking at the Christmas Day storm threat. The guidance and their ensembles continue to struggle with evolution of the upper trough and whether it will pass as an open wave or a stronger wrapped up closed core low. The system is currently across the N Pacific and will not enter the RAOB network until Friday/Saturday. Needless to say as we have repeated many times, this is a extremely low confidence forecast with a lot of volatility so expect changes. As has been repeated many times it does appear we will get very cold as the Storm passes. Possibly the coldest air of the season to date. Stay tuned!...
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Model trend in the past 24hrs appears to be faster, weaker and farther north with next weeks upper low. Both the Euro and GFS indicate a light freeze next Thursday followed by a slow warm-up. Euro has a band of light snow in the northern TX panhandle and into Oklahoma. GFS is all over the place each run, but its upper-level pattern is trending toward the Euro. As I've said, the models have been in good agreement out to about 3-4 days. Beyond then they diverge. Can't tell which solution is correct yet for next week. If I was in Dallas, then I'd be a little hopeful of some snow. Down here in Houston, I'm not getting my hopes up. Even though I like the heat, I get as excited as any of you at the prospects of snow in Houston.
Give the models until Saturday at the earliest for them to come into better agreement on next week's weather. More likely on Sunday.
what pattern change? Lol
