December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead

[srainhoutx]

Updated Medium Range Discussion from the HPC:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1044 AM EST THU DEC 20 2012

VALID 12Z SUN DEC 23 2012 - 12Z THU DEC 27 2012

...STORM SYSTEM INCLUDING SOME HEAVY SNOW TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
NATION CHRISTMAS EVE TO THE 27TH...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A POTENT COMBINATION OF
MODERATELY DEEP AND ENERGETIC SYSTEMS AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW AT
MIDDLE LATITUDES. THIS YIELDS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATELY
STRONG CYCLONES TO BRING SWATHS OF RAIN/SNOW/WIND TO MUCH OF THE
U.S. OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ONE SUCH STORM IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST STATES ON THE 24TH
AND INTENSIFY OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST ON THE 25TH AND 26TH.
SEVERAL MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS STORM WILL
HAND OFF TO A COASTAL LOW/NOR'EASTER BEGINNING AROUND DAY 7...THE
27TH.

...MODEL CHOICE...
THE 00Z GFS LOOKS ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE AND FITS WELL WITH BOTH THE
00Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE LOW TRACK THE GFS
DEPICTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY ON DAYS 5-7
MATCHES CONTINUITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE AND IS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE BEST CLUSTERING OF ENSEMBLE LOW TRACKS. THIS GAVE US
MODERATE TO STRONG CONFIDENCE IN USING THE 00Z GFS AS THE PRIMARY
BASIS FOR OUR FRONTS/PRESSURES...WITH RELATIVELY LOWER WEIGHTING
ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS EVEN THROUGH DAY 7. WE ALSO GAVE SOME WEIGHT
TO THE 00Z CANADIAN WHICH OFFERS A SIMILAR PROGRESSION. THE 00Z
ECMWF WAS LARGELY DISCOUNTED AS BEING TOO AMPLIFIED AND SLOW WITH
THE PLAINS/MIDWEST CYCLONE AND ALSO WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF WAS A CLEAR
OUTLIER...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO DEPTH...COMPARED TO EVEN ITS
OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ONE KEY POINT AT DAY 7...IS THAT OUR MODELS
OF CHOICE...GFS/GEFS MEAN/CANADIAN...ALL POINT TOWARD A HAND-OFF
FROM THE CYCLONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS IS NOW REFLECTED IN OUR FORECAST.


...IMPACTS...
THE STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL ENTER THE WEST COAST
ON DAY 3 AND DIG INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON DAY 4...BRINGING
RAIN/SNOW/POTENTIAL WINTER STORM CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS. AT
THE SAME TIME...BLOCKED FLOW AT HIGHER LATITUDES WILL ALLOW A
STACKED CYCLONE OVER EASTERN CANADA TO FORCE MORE ARCTIC AND
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL U.S...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER SNOW EVENT WHEN THE STORM EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
STATES. EXPECT THIS TIME THAT THE PERSISTENT BLOCK OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL SUPPRESS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY RATHER THAN THE GREAT LAKES. AT PRESENT TIME...THE MOST
LIKELY SNOW SWATH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OK INTO KS/MO
CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT...CONTINUING TOWARD NORTHERN IL/IN.
RAIN/THUNDER WILL OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST...SWEEPING
EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE COLD AIR DAMMED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES TOWARD DAYS 6/7. IF THE COASTAL LOW/NOR'EASTER
WERE TO FORM AS FORECAST...IT APPEARS PER THE 00Z GFS/GEFS
INFORMATION THAT THE SNOW LINE WOULD INDEED REACH THE COAST AND
THE MAJOR CITIES IN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS AT DAY 7...HOWEVER...AND
THEREFORE IS LESS CERTAIN. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS A BIT SLOWER AND
FARTHER WEST...SUGGESTING MORE WARM ADVECTION WHICH WOULD PUSH THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE
INLAND.
BURKE/RAUSCH

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I agree that 80 degrees on Christmas is bull**** but the pattern is changing for the big time.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

No, 80 degrees for Christmas should be illegal. It doesn't feel like Christmas. Even the cold weather haters agree with me on that.

So ready for this cesspool weather to end and get some Winter temps in here for a good 2-3 weeks.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Hell, I'd take a 100 year Ice Storm event at this point... anything to get away from the nastyness the last few weeks has given us at times.

[Portastorm]

Dramatic differences in the GFS operational runs even within 12 hours. Take a look at the 0z GFS and the 12z GFS. Huge differences in temperatures and storm tracks for much of the period. As Steve (and others) have said here, the GFS is really struggling with this pattern at the medium and long range.

[Baseballdude2915]

Wow, 12z brings some bitter cold for the new year.

[JackCruz]

Our low next wednesday is only 40 degrees? Is this the "coldest weather this season" everyone was talking about? But bring on the HEAT! *Evil laughs*

[MontgomeryCoWx]

New Yurpian?

[harpman]

My folks over here are pretty excited about the new Euro run.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

New Euro run is perfect for me... snow in East TX the day after Christmas. I'll be up there.

[wxman57]

Not quite 80s this weekend, but mid 70s Sun/Mon. Still a bit on the cool side. Front comes through on Christmas, cooling us down a bit. GFS isn't as cold as the Euro, which takes our lows down to 29-30 next Thursday.

Since Gene is gone from KHOU, I can start my "wxman57 number". I give today a "3". Too cold and too windy. If it wasn't for the sunshine, I'd give it a "2". Add precip and it's a "1". Drop temps into the 30s with precip and it would be a "0". However, drop the temps even more, resulting in snow, and my number starts rising again.

In the extended GFS Meteogram below, I see some very low wxman57 numbers (unless it snows).

[hlewis]

Not quite 80s this weekend, but mid 70s Sun/Mon. Still a bit on the cool side. Front comes through on Christmas, cooling us down a bit. GFS isn't as cold as the Euro, which takes our lows down to 29-30 next Thursday.

Since Gene is gone from KHOU, I can start my "wxman57 number". I give today a "3". Too cold and too windy. If it wasn't for the sunshine, I'd give it a "2". Add precip and it's a "1". Drop temps into the 30s with precip and it would be a "0". However, drop the temps even more, resulting in snow, and my number starts rising again.

LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW!!! lol Love your reply!

[Andrew]

Not quite 80s this weekend, but mid 70s Sun/Mon. Still a bit on the cool side. Front comes through on Christmas, cooling us down a bit. GFS isn't as cold as the Euro, which takes our lows down to 29-30 next Thursday.

Since Gene is gone from KHOU, I can start my "wxman57 number". I give today a "3". Too cold and too windy. If it wasn't for the sunshine, I'd give it a "2". Add precip and it's a "1". Drop temps into the 30s with precip and it would be a "0". However, drop the temps even more, resulting in snow, and my number starts rising again.

In the extended GFS Meteogram below, I see some very low wxman57 numbers (unless it snows).

I approve this message.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Damn, that's a hell of a trough off Cali

[srainhoutx]

It's not too often we see NWS Houston/Galveston even make mention of wintry mischief...

A SLOW WARMUP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A RETURN OF
ONSHORE FLOW LEADS TO MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THEY ARE SOLIDIFYING AROUND A SOLUTION THAT
WILL PRODUCE A WET CHRISTMAS DAY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHICH COULD PRODUCE JUST A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME OF OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO SEE RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY SORT OF ACCUMULATION
AND NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

Oklahoma City:

THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NPAC AND
ONSHORE EARLY MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS PHASING WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS TEND TO
AGREE THAT AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR AND WITH A DIGGING TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES...OR JUST WEST...BY CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG THE TROUGH WITH THE MAIN VORT MAX
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
MAINTENANCE OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER MERIDIONAL UPPER JET ON ITS
BACK SIDE. MEANWHILE...THE REST OF THE MODELS FAVOR A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A CLOSED LOW. FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THE GFS...GEMNH...AND THEN DGEX. FOR NOW...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSIDERING THE CONSENSUS SO POPS
WERE NUDGED UP JUST A BIT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
OK...BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE RELATIVELY LOW/QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW WITH REGARDS TO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT
PRE-ICING.


San Angelo:

THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME MORE INTO ALIGNMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS AS
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO NORTHERN TEXAS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT BACKED BY A STRONG POLAR
REINFORCEMENT PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS A
CONSEQUENCE...HIGHS CHRISTMAS DAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA AND THE 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. THIS FAST
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MIDWAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY NOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. AS FOR SNOW...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING BY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN
BIG COUNTRY ONLY.

Dallas/Ft Worth:

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON MONDAY WE WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING
THE PROGRESS AND INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION
MENTIONED...THE SPEED AND BAROCLINICITY OF THIS FRONT WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN WHERE OUR CHRISTMAS DAY STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW AT LEAST A SHALLOW COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTH ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH TX DRY...DUE TO
LIMITED DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND SHAVED POPS BACK TO THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONLY MENTIONED RAIN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.

WHERE THE MODELS SEEM TO DIFFER MOST SIGNIFICANTLY IS ON THE SPEED
OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS MOST EVIDENT BY
LOOKING AT PROGGED H850 WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE GFS IS ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 12
HRS SLOWER WITH AN INTRUSION OF COLD...CANADIAN AIR DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM EARLY CHRISTMAS/TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE GFS TAKES THE NEXT POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN OFFERING UP THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACKS. ASSUMING THIS STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW
WILL GO...FAVOR THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TRACKS MORE SO THAN THE GFS
AT THIS TIME. THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS BECAUSE COLD AIR
TYPICALLY RACES SOUTH DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS MUCH FASTER THAN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES. THEREFORE...TEND TO FAVOR THE MODELS
THAT SHOW A FASTER TRACK OF THE COLD AIR...AND A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS.

WITH THE DECISION MADE TO FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...WENT
AHEAD AND MENTIONED A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER SUNSET ON CHRISTMAS DAY FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH TX. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
WILL BE TRYING TO KEEP PACE WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS NORTH TX AS DRY MID-LEVEL AIR BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. AS SUCH...THINK THAT ANY SNOW WILL TEND TO
BE LIGHT AND ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTIONED IN
THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM CANTON TO TEMPLE. AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE THE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW APPEARS TO OCCUR AFTER WE LOSE ANY CONNECTION TO GULF
MOISTURE...VERY LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HAVE
SNOWFALL OF ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...AS WE
ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH FORECASTING THE PLACEMENT OF
LARGE/SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES. SMALLER SCALE DETAILS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON THIS SYSTEM...INCLUDING CHANCES AND AMOUNTS OF
SNOW POSSIBLE. THE FORECAST MAY UNDERGO LARGE CHANGES TO EITHER A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST TO MORE ACCUMULATING WINTRY WEATHER
DEPENDING ON THESE SMALLER SCALE...BUT VERY IMPORTANT CONCERNS.
THESE SMALLER SCALE FORECAST DETAILS WILL NOT LIKELY BE WELL
HANDLED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WE GET A BETTER
CONSENSUS ON THE SPEED AND INTENSITY OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.

EXTENDED...THE POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON
WEDNESDAY LEAVING A DRY FORECAST AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


Shreveport:

WE WILL SOON BE SETTING UP FOR OUR NEXT RAINMAKER DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE BACK AND FORTH AMONGST
THEMSELVES CURRENT AND PREVIOUS RUNS. NOW THE EURO IS COLDER FOR
CHRISTMAS AND THAT NIGHT WITH SNOW A POSSIBILITY. THE GFS IS NOT
AS COLD BUT STILL BRINGS SNOW WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT. SO WILL
SETTLE ON A SLIGHT MENTION TO CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST FOR
OVERNIGHT AND THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS. MAV/MEX NUMBERS HAVE BEEN
BLENDED INTO THE EXTENDED PACKAGE AS THE ROLLER COASTER LINGERS
INTO THE NEW SEASON. THE WINTER SOLSTICE WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT 05:12 A.M. THE EARLIEST START TO THE WINTER SEASON
SINCE 1896.


Amarillo:

CHRISTMAS DAY AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT REMAINS THE PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THIS REMAINS A HIGH UNCERTAINTY
FORECAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT. AT THIS POINT...THERE SEEMS TO BE RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN OPEN WAVE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NW. WITH THIS ASSUMPTION...THERE
ARE THREE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. FIRST...THE CMC AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS...SHOW THE TROUGH TAKING A FAR SOUTH TRACK DIGGING FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION DOWN TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WOULD BE THE COLDEST
AND POSSIBLY SNOWIEST SOLUTION. THE SECOND SOLUTION IS THE LEAST
AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE FURTHEST NORTH TRACK. THE PRIMARY HAZARD
WITH THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS.

THE THIRD SOLUTION...AND MOST LIKELY SOLUTION...IS CLOSE TO THE 12Z
GFS SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM CO
OVER THE PANHANDLES...TO CENTRAL OK. WITH THIS SOLUTION...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON CHRISTMAS DAY...BEHIND THE
MAIN FRONT. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WOULD BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE IN THE OK PANHANDLE AND NE TX
PANHANDLE. WITH THIS SOLUTION...STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH...UNDER THE LARGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
GRADIENTS...THOUGH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
PANHANDLES. THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LOOKS TO BE CHRISTMAS
MORNING...AS BY 18Z THE GFS ALREADY IS BEGINNING TO DEPICT ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT POPS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THOUGH IF THIS SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE
ONE...SNOW CHANCES AFTER 00Z ARE VERY UNLIKELY. THE MOST UNCERTAIN
FACTOR IN THIS SYSTEM IS SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW INCHES AT MOST.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Bring it EURO!!!!

[Andrew]

One thing to note about the models and long range troughing is the global models have shown large amounts of troughing off the coast of California to then have them shear out over the rockies or not come in as strong closer to the actual event. I really wish I had access to the higher resolution Euro right now.... Would help a lot right now. I think ED has access to the Euro MOS which is nice.

[Andrew]

Update on some Oscillations and patterns:

PNA: (looks to go positive towards the end of the run which would be a positive)

pna 20-12.gif

AO & NAO: (Both have varied outcomes with each run but the current trend looks to be close to neutral)

ao 20-12.gif

nao 20-12.gif

Blocking pattern by the gfs (which to be fair may not be the best model to track right now but the global synoptic pattern should be relatively accurate)

500.png

forecast.png

[Baseballdude2915]

One thing I was wondering, was why was the rain so dirty overnight? It was almost as if mud actually fell from the sky.

[jeff]

One thing I was wondering, was why was the rain so dirty overnight? It was almost as if mud actually fell from the sky.

Dust from W TX was incorporated into the storm system and "rained" out along our thin line of showers. Dust was still lofted this morning over S TX and the Rio Grande plains from yesterday.