December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead

[Andrew]

Heights are beginning to lower out west as the Mid Level Low begins to sink south. Looking at the jet winds above us and to the west are already pretty impressive. Tomorrow night could be a rocky one.

[cristina99]

Every time there is a hint of the Houston area having a "winter," I always like reading this forum. I would like to see a nice winter - you know, where we don't get out of the 30s for a couple of days - then a slight warm up. Even more I would love to see a flurry or two - maybe 10. Earlier, there were hints of some very cold air coming our way, now, although it might be cold, it has backed off a bit. I am but a novice some of this terminology I don't quite understand. Has the idea of some very cold air headed further south gone away? Starting in December, I wait with bated breath for some cold air. By late February, I start to give up and hope for the next year.

[srainhoutx]

Every time there is a hint of the Houston area having a "winter," I always like reading this forum. I would like to see a nice winter - you know, where we don't get out of the 30s for a couple of days - then a slight warm up. Even more I would love to see a flurry or two - maybe 10. Earlier, there were hints of some very cold air coming our way, now, although it might be cold, it has backed off a bit. I am but a novice some of this terminology I don't quite understand. Has the idea of some very cold air headed further south gone away? Starting in December, I wait with bated breath for some cold air. By late February, I start to give up and hope for the next year.

Hi cristina99. Some times we do get a bit 'technical', but never be shy about asking questions. We try to make things simple, but at times we forget to explain things that make it easy for everyone to understand. It does appear this active roller coaster pattern will continue and one thing that is working in our favor for those that love cold weather is the increasing snow pack across the Plains. By Wednesday into Thursday it is going to feel cold with all the snow expected about 250-300 miles to our N. Our greatest concern at this time is a severe weather episode overnight tomorrow into Christmas Morning. There continues to be fairly strong hints that the active pattern will continue the next couple of weeks. We'll see if we can't get some colder air working into the Region closer to New Years Day and beyond. Happy Holidays everyone. I bet the night crew will be active monitoring the overnight computer models.

[hlewis]

Thank you all. I enjoy this place too. Been here a few years, lurking mostly, and sometimes praying for snow in comments always enjoy this place, from hurricane season to winter! thank you all and hope you all have a wonderful christmas! now turn on that snow machine and lets get some cooold

[Andrew]

SPC AC 240653

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LA...SCNTRL MS
AND WCNTRL AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY...ERN GULF COAST STATES AND SRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SETTING UP FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOR
PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...

...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY. A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET
IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EWD
OVER A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION...MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS CNTRL TX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH
COINCIDES WITH A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE TX
COASTAL PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY AT DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MOVING ENEWD FROM SE TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AROUND MIDDAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT VICKSBURG AND JACKSON MS ON TUESDAY GRADUALLY
DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER
TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS
0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHES 60 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF
350 TO 400 M2/S2 SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LA TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL MS INTO WCNTRL AL BY TUESDAY EVENING.
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY MCS THAT
BECOMES WELL-ORGANIZED COULD CONTAIN A TORNADO THREAT FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON...LONG TRACK TORNADOES COULD OCCUR
WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND MOVE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH
LINE-SEGMENTS THAT ORGANIZE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. A THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 70 KT POSSIBLE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN
THE LINE. IF A WELL-DEVELOPED AND FAST MOVING SQUALL-LINE
ORGANIZES...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME SUBSTANTIAL.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN GULF
COAST STATES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

[Andrew]

Keeping an eye on the severe weather it looks like tomorrow night going into Tuesday morning could produce some severe storms around SE Texas and points East. Been looking at various forecast soundings from GFS and our area looks really good for the possibility of stronger storms. Looking at KHOU sounding still shows a low LCL and LFC, CAPE over 2k (J/Kg) with LI and SI looking good still. EHI is at 3.5 which is impressive for this system but shear may be lacking just a little when compared to points east with the Jet Streak just to the NE of here. Low level moisture looks good but mid level and upper level moisture looks to be lacking a little which could inhibit widespread storms. Also the fact that the trough will be making the transition to a neutral phase versus the negative phase that will occur east of us shows why severe weather will be more abundant in LA and MS. Looking east on Christmas day could be a bumpy one for Mississippi and Louisiana.

Edit to add that after looking at 250 and 300mb maps some more the jet may just be lacking a little to support some of the stronger stuff down here and doesn't really start to intensify until the mid level trough is to the east of us.

[srainhoutx]

I want to encourage our neighbors to the E to pay close attention and let those that may not be weather wise aware of the severe/tornado threat Christmas Day across Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama extending into the overnight hours. There are strong indications of a long tracking tornado or two. That threat cannot be ignored or under estimated. Get the word out to your family/friends in those areas. Stay Safe everyone.

[srainhoutx]

For those of us in SE TX/Western Louisiana, the SPC has reconfigured the Slight Risk for areas mainly N of I-10 extending in a line from roughly College Station down to Houston up to Lake Livingston and Lufkin on S to just NW of Lake Charles. The primary threat is for an isolated tornado/strong damaging winds. A weak frontal boundary is sagging S and should pull up stationary later this morning before slowly retreating N. The long awaited upper trough/low is moving over the Intermountain West and dropping SE. A noisy sub tropical jet remains overhead and the parameters for a severe episode will begin after mid night tonight. The focal point would likely be along the warm front with the potential for discrete super cells to develop ahead of a deepening trough to our NW as the upper low begins to wrap up. A squall line will likely develop to our NW and rapidly race E clearing SE TX by 10:00 AM Christmas Day. Strong gusty NW winds and rapidly falling temps are expected as the cold front passes. Snow will be falling across Oklahoma with flurries possible as far S as Dallas and possibly Lufkin Christmas afternoon/evening as the storm system continues to intensify and move ENE. Heavy snow is likely for Eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas/Southern Missouri/Indiana and Kentucky. Freezing rain looks likely for portions of Ohio and Pennsylvania as well.

[skidog40]

so this cold front that's close right now is not passing us?

[skidog40]

why is katy in 50's?

[srainhoutx]

so this cold front that's close right now is not passing us?

It will likely stall somewhere along 1-10 before retreating N. Remember this is not the big cold front. The boundary near the area is Pacific in nature. The Canadian front will sweep S tomorrow behind the big Christmas Storm system.

[sambucol]

Are we clear of tornado/hail weather tonight?

[wxman57]

Here's the latest forecast from the overnight GFS. It still indicates that the front which is very near Bush airport will drop through the area today and knock temps down a little, but the main front moves through around 4PM tomorrow. A few cold days then a warm-up and another cold front next weekend. Nothing too extreme. No snow for us, and maybe not much rain. With that first front moving through today we lose a lot of the available moisture before the main front tomorrow.

[JackCruz]

Nobody has a freeze for Houston. Lows in the mid to upper 30s and the storm will take a more northern track. Precip will be light in SE TX. Merry Christmas everyone! it was nothing but hype. This is no pattern Change. No real cold air.This speculation was just an epic fail. From then l beginning I knew this would all boil down to NOTHING

[ticka1]

no severe weather now?

[srainhoutx]

Nobod has a freeze for Houston. Lows in the mid to upper 30s abd the storm will take a more northern track. Precip will be light in SE TX. Merry Christmas everyone!

Enjoy your temps in the 20's JackCruz. We had the heaviest frost of the season last Thursday morning in my area just a couple of miles away from Jersey Village...

[JackCruz]

no severe weather now?

Nope. No severe weather/cold air. Just a cool airmass

[JackCruz]

Nobod has a freeze for Houston. Lows in the mid to upper 30s abd the storm will take a more northern track. Precip will be light in SE TX. Merry Christmas everyone!

Enjoy your temps in the 20's JackCruz. We had the heaviest frost of the season last Thursday morning in my area just a couple of miles away from Jersey Village...

Good for you Srain! Too bad we won't be hitting the 20s . Whaf does frost have to do with this hyped up weather system though

[tireman4]

I would not say that. I would say, keep your guard up. Until the NWS states, "no severe weather", I think ( and I am just a layman) that we should all remain vigilant. The threat is there.

[srainhoutx]

Nobod has a freeze for Houston. Lows in the mid to upper 30s abd the storm will take a more northern track. Precip will be light in SE TX. Merry Christmas everyone!

Enjoy your temps in the 20's JackCruz. We had the heaviest frost of the season last Thursday morning in my area just a couple of miles away from Jersey Village...

Good for you Srain! Too bad we won't be hitting the 20s . Whaf does frost have to do with this hyped up weather system though

Haven't seen any hype here. Maybe you should stop reading Cosgrove/Bastardi and DT... I call 26 degrees cold with heavy frost...so there's that. Heck, I even had the heaters on for the dogs, but that's just me.