I'm happy that we'll get rain from this, but not the severe weather threat. I know many love severe thunderstorms, it can be exciting, but I'm afraid this could be a dangerous day for many in the south as this storm ramps up. I hope LA, MS, AL and GA really paid attention to the weather reports for tomorrow and hope no one is caught off guard. Even though it is very unlikely, this is one system I wish was a bust.
Hope everyone stays safe on this stormy Christmas Day and want to wish everyone a very Merry Christmas.
December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
HPC's National Forecast Chart was updated at 3:12 EST for all you travelers out there
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/national_f ... .php?day=1
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
313 PM EST MON DEC 24 2012
VALID 00Z TUE DEC 25 2012 - 00Z THU DEC 27 2012
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF
COAST...
...MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF ARKANSAS INTO PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY...
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY CHRISTMAS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
CHRISTMAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST ENDING BY LATER MONDAY EVENING. ALL THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MORE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY CHRISTMAS
AFTERNOON.
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND INDUCE A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST BY AFTERNOON ON CHRISTMAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE TENNESSEE/SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE ROCKIES THAT WILL
MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY ... MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY .... EXPANDING INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY CHRISTMAS EVENING AND THE MID-ATLANTIC BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM WILL COME ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST ON CHRISTMAS
AS THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN BY
WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
ON TUESDAY. THE RAIN WILL WEAKEN TO LIGHT RAIN ALONG MOST OF THE
WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FROM WASHINGTON STATE TO CALIFORNIA EXPANDING INTO
PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTIAN REGION AND PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT CHRISTMAS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/national_f ... .php?day=1
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
313 PM EST MON DEC 24 2012
VALID 00Z TUE DEC 25 2012 - 00Z THU DEC 27 2012
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF
COAST...
...MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF ARKANSAS INTO PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY...
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY CHRISTMAS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
CHRISTMAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST ENDING BY LATER MONDAY EVENING. ALL THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MORE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY CHRISTMAS
AFTERNOON.
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND INDUCE A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST BY AFTERNOON ON CHRISTMAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE TENNESSEE/SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE ROCKIES THAT WILL
MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY ... MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY .... EXPANDING INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY CHRISTMAS EVENING AND THE MID-ATLANTIC BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM WILL COME ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST ON CHRISTMAS
AS THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN BY
WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
ON TUESDAY. THE RAIN WILL WEAKEN TO LIGHT RAIN ALONG MOST OF THE
WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FROM WASHINGTON STATE TO CALIFORNIA EXPANDING INTO
PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTIAN REGION AND PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT CHRISTMAS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php
-
weatherguy425
- Pro Met
- Posts: 830
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:45 pm
- Location: Atlanta, Georgia
- Contact:
Thinking that enhanced area of showers entering Colorado and Waller counties mat explode as it treks northeastward.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA AND PORTIONS OF SERN TX INCLUDING THE UPPER
TX COAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 251300Z - 251400Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED TSTMS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A
WARM FRONT. SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS ARE LIKELY WITH A THREAT
FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ONE OR MORE TORNADO
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 16Z.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OVER S
TX THIS MORNING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NR GYB TO BTR AT 12Z AND WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NWD THIS MORNING AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EWD TO N OF HOU BY 16Z.
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED WITH COOLING
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1500
AND 2000 J/KG. WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES EXCEED 60 KTS.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN 0-1 KM SRH OF 300 M2/S2 OR
GREATER THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR AND NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...FAVORING LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. WITH
TIME...INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS MAY MERGE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH AN
ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT DUE TO BOWING STRUCTURES/MESOVORTEX
DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. ONE
OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 16Z.
..BUNTING/MEAD.. 12/25/2012
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA AND PORTIONS OF SERN TX INCLUDING THE UPPER
TX COAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 251300Z - 251400Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED TSTMS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A
WARM FRONT. SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS ARE LIKELY WITH A THREAT
FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ONE OR MORE TORNADO
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 16Z.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OVER S
TX THIS MORNING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NR GYB TO BTR AT 12Z AND WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NWD THIS MORNING AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EWD TO N OF HOU BY 16Z.
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED WITH COOLING
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1500
AND 2000 J/KG. WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES EXCEED 60 KTS.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN 0-1 KM SRH OF 300 M2/S2 OR
GREATER THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR AND NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...FAVORING LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. WITH
TIME...INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS MAY MERGE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH AN
ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT DUE TO BOWING STRUCTURES/MESOVORTEX
DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. ONE
OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 16Z.
..BUNTING/MEAD.. 12/25/2012
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
VALID 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/SRN LA...CNTRL/SRN MS INTO THE SWRN QUARTER OF AL AND THE WRN
FL PNHDL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX EWD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES TO WRN SC...
--SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM SERN TX
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. STRONG...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE--
...SYNOPSIS...
A 100+KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK OVER SWRN TX WILL PROGRESS ESEWD TO
ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...
CONTRIBUTING TO SUBSEQUENT AMPLIFICATION OF THE COMPANION SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH A CORRIDOR OF 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 100-150M/12HR
SPREADING FROM CNTRL TX INTO THE TN VALLEY BY 26/12Z.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE TX HILL COUNTRY WILL
DEEPEN TODAY WHILE DEVELOPING ENEWD ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT
INTO W-CNTRL MS BY 26/00Z AND MIDDLE TN BY THE END OF THE D1 PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
...ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...
A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING
TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM N-CNTRL/NERN TX INTO
CNTRL LA...DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WAA AT THE TERMINUS OF AN
INTENSIFYING LLJ. HERE...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COINCIDE
WITH A MOISTENING...LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG PER 12Z FWD SOUNDING. GIVEN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 35-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...THE SETUP
WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
TO THE S/SW OF THE ELEVATED TSTMS...AN OVERALL DEEPENING TO THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN THE INTENSIFICATION AND BROADENING OF
A LLJ WHICH WILL AID IN THE NWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM
THE GULF COAST TODAY. WHILE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE LIMITED BY
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S WILL YIELD A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON TO THE S OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE
MLCAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG.
LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/
WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON
INVOF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX EWD INTO
CNTRL LA. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT STORMS
WILL BECOME ORIENTED IN A N-S ORIENTED BROKEN BAND /LIKELY COMPRISED
OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS/ FROM NEAR THE DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE MS/LA BORDER SWD ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT. A
SIMILAR CONVECTIVE CONFIGURATION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS MS AND
AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF AL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...INTENSE DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO A NARROW BUT CONTINUOUS CONVECTIVE BAND WHICH WILL
ADVANCE EWD INTO GA...THE FL PNHDL AND WRN SC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE 100+KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR AND CONCOMITANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLJ WILL RESULT
IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DEEPENING PHASE OF THE PARENT SYSTEM LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
INDEED...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AND PLAN VIEW KINEMATIC FIELDS INDICATE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50-70 KT WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
INCREASING FROM 200-350 M2/S2 TODAY...TO IN EXCESS OF 400-500 M2/S2
TONIGHT.
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS/LEWPS TO
EVOLVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACKED AND STRONG. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE INTO A QLCS. FINALLY...HAIL
--SOME IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER-- WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND SWRN LA WHERE 12Z CRP/LCH
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED EML WITH 700-500-MB
LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5 C/KM.
..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 12/25/2012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
VALID 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/SRN LA...CNTRL/SRN MS INTO THE SWRN QUARTER OF AL AND THE WRN
FL PNHDL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX EWD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES TO WRN SC...
--SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM SERN TX
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. STRONG...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE--
...SYNOPSIS...
A 100+KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK OVER SWRN TX WILL PROGRESS ESEWD TO
ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...
CONTRIBUTING TO SUBSEQUENT AMPLIFICATION OF THE COMPANION SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH A CORRIDOR OF 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 100-150M/12HR
SPREADING FROM CNTRL TX INTO THE TN VALLEY BY 26/12Z.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE TX HILL COUNTRY WILL
DEEPEN TODAY WHILE DEVELOPING ENEWD ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT
INTO W-CNTRL MS BY 26/00Z AND MIDDLE TN BY THE END OF THE D1 PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
...ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...
A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING
TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM N-CNTRL/NERN TX INTO
CNTRL LA...DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WAA AT THE TERMINUS OF AN
INTENSIFYING LLJ. HERE...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COINCIDE
WITH A MOISTENING...LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG PER 12Z FWD SOUNDING. GIVEN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 35-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...THE SETUP
WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
TO THE S/SW OF THE ELEVATED TSTMS...AN OVERALL DEEPENING TO THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN THE INTENSIFICATION AND BROADENING OF
A LLJ WHICH WILL AID IN THE NWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM
THE GULF COAST TODAY. WHILE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE LIMITED BY
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S WILL YIELD A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON TO THE S OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE
MLCAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG.
LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/
WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON
INVOF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX EWD INTO
CNTRL LA. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT STORMS
WILL BECOME ORIENTED IN A N-S ORIENTED BROKEN BAND /LIKELY COMPRISED
OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS/ FROM NEAR THE DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE MS/LA BORDER SWD ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT. A
SIMILAR CONVECTIVE CONFIGURATION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS MS AND
AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF AL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...INTENSE DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER
SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO A NARROW BUT CONTINUOUS CONVECTIVE BAND WHICH WILL
ADVANCE EWD INTO GA...THE FL PNHDL AND WRN SC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE 100+KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR AND CONCOMITANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLJ WILL RESULT
IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DEEPENING PHASE OF THE PARENT SYSTEM LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
INDEED...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AND PLAN VIEW KINEMATIC FIELDS INDICATE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50-70 KT WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
INCREASING FROM 200-350 M2/S2 TODAY...TO IN EXCESS OF 400-500 M2/S2
TONIGHT.
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS/LEWPS TO
EVOLVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACKED AND STRONG. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE INTO A QLCS. FINALLY...HAIL
--SOME IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER-- WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND SWRN LA WHERE 12Z CRP/LCH
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED EML WITH 700-500-MB
LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5 C/KM.
..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 12/25/2012
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Radar looks impressive to the north and east of us. What's the window for severe thunderstorms in our neck of the woods, noon-ish?
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Looks that way Cloud2ground.Cloud2ground wrote:Radar looks impressive to the north and east of us. What's the window for severe thunderstorms in our neck of the woods, noon-ish?
- Attachments
-
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
For our neighbors in South Central Louisiana, a Tornado Watch has been issued:
- Attachments
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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Concern grows this morning for areas just E of Austin to Houston, W Louisiana on E for rapidly developing super cells ahead of the dry line/cold front. Current analysis suggests a dry line is approaching Central Texas as the 5H upper low wraps up just ESE of Lubbock. This upper low continues to slide ESE before turning E then ENE later this morning. The latest HPC ensembles are suggesting a well clustered low developing near San Antonio/Austin and trekking ENE to near Jackson, MS later tonight. A Moderate Risk has been issued from SE Texas, Southern Louisiana, Southern Mississippi and Southern Alabama. The active severe weather should continue on E into the overnight hours of Christmas into the 26th spreading the severe threat further E into Georgia and the Carolinas.
Across the cold sector, heavy snow fall is expected from Oklahoma City/Tulsa Arkansas with Blizzard Warnings across W Kentucky/S Illinois/SW Indiana with rapidly deteriorating conditions with a foot+ of snow expected. Currently a mix of freezing rain/sleet/snow is falling in Oklahoma and blowing snow is occurring across the Texas Panhandle as cyclogenesis continues. This is a very dynamic Winter Storm with both severe and winter impacts that are far reaching and societal impacts will be felt across a large portion of the Nation on during a busy Christmas Holiday period.
Across the cold sector, heavy snow fall is expected from Oklahoma City/Tulsa Arkansas with Blizzard Warnings across W Kentucky/S Illinois/SW Indiana with rapidly deteriorating conditions with a foot+ of snow expected. Currently a mix of freezing rain/sleet/snow is falling in Oklahoma and blowing snow is occurring across the Texas Panhandle as cyclogenesis continues. This is a very dynamic Winter Storm with both severe and winter impacts that are far reaching and societal impacts will be felt across a large portion of the Nation on during a busy Christmas Holiday period.
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srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
813 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
TXZ163-164-251500-
TRINITY TX-HOUSTON TX-
813 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TRINITY AND HOUSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM CST...
AT 807 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES EAST OF CENTERVILLE...OR 18 MILES
WEST OF CROCKETT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROCKETT...GRAPELAND...LOVELADY...KENNARD AND LATEXO.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
813 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
TXZ163-164-251500-
TRINITY TX-HOUSTON TX-
813 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TRINITY AND HOUSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM CST...
AT 807 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES EAST OF CENTERVILLE...OR 18 MILES
WEST OF CROCKETT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROCKETT...GRAPELAND...LOVELADY...KENNARD AND LATEXO.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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From Nesidis:
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/25/12 1421Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 1345ZVOGT
.
LOCATION...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...S MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...
LOCATION...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
ATTN WFOS...SJT...LUB...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT... PRECIP CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS... MAIN UL VORT CONTINUES ITS TREK ACROSS
NRN TX WITH A STRONG UL JET RIDING UNDERNEATH IT... LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY
INDICATES EXPANDING/COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN NE TX/NW LA/AR DUE TO THE STRONG
UL JET IMPULSE THAT IS CROSSING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL TX. THIS IMPULSE
APPEARS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY A BIT MORE NORTHWARD AROUND THE UL LOW INTO
OK THAT WOULD LIKELY INCREASE THE WINTRY PRECIP IN THAT REGION. GOES-R
AIRMASS SOUNDER IMAGERY IS A GOOD INDICATION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE
DEEPENING TROF AND UL JET. THERE WAS ALSO ANOTHER IMPULSE RIDING ALONG
THE SRN PORTION OF A SECONDARY UL JET THAT HELPED SOME CONVECTION KICK
OFF IN SRN LA WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN THE
NERLY DIRECTION ACROSS MS.
.
MID-TO-UL WINDS ARE MOSTLY WESTERLY, PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
PRODUCTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS STRONG LL FLOW DIRECTED NWD OUT OF THE
GULF... THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING OF MOISTURE ACROSS
LA/MS/ERN OK/AR OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
PUSH NWD INTO MO.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1420-1920Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK... ATTM, THE BEST CLOUD TOP SIGNATURES ARE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTION AND HVY RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS NE TX/LA/MS... BUT
SFC TEMPS ARE DROPPING PRETTY QUICKLY ACROSS OK/NW TX. SO EXPECT A
MIXED BAG OF WINTRY PRECIP IN SERN HALF OF OK AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE
TX/OK BORDER AS THE UL TROF DEEPENS FURTHER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS WITH MOD TO HVY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF OK/TX
PANHANDLE. THE TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW IN OK/AR SEEMS TO STILL BE
AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS AWAY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES...
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/25/12 1421Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 1345ZVOGT
.
LOCATION...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...S MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...
LOCATION...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
ATTN WFOS...SJT...LUB...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT... PRECIP CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS... MAIN UL VORT CONTINUES ITS TREK ACROSS
NRN TX WITH A STRONG UL JET RIDING UNDERNEATH IT... LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY
INDICATES EXPANDING/COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN NE TX/NW LA/AR DUE TO THE STRONG
UL JET IMPULSE THAT IS CROSSING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL TX. THIS IMPULSE
APPEARS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY A BIT MORE NORTHWARD AROUND THE UL LOW INTO
OK THAT WOULD LIKELY INCREASE THE WINTRY PRECIP IN THAT REGION. GOES-R
AIRMASS SOUNDER IMAGERY IS A GOOD INDICATION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE
DEEPENING TROF AND UL JET. THERE WAS ALSO ANOTHER IMPULSE RIDING ALONG
THE SRN PORTION OF A SECONDARY UL JET THAT HELPED SOME CONVECTION KICK
OFF IN SRN LA WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN THE
NERLY DIRECTION ACROSS MS.
.
MID-TO-UL WINDS ARE MOSTLY WESTERLY, PER LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
PRODUCTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS STRONG LL FLOW DIRECTED NWD OUT OF THE
GULF... THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING OF MOISTURE ACROSS
LA/MS/ERN OK/AR OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
PUSH NWD INTO MO.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1420-1920Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK... ATTM, THE BEST CLOUD TOP SIGNATURES ARE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTION AND HVY RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS NE TX/LA/MS... BUT
SFC TEMPS ARE DROPPING PRETTY QUICKLY ACROSS OK/NW TX. SO EXPECT A
MIXED BAG OF WINTRY PRECIP IN SERN HALF OF OK AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE
TX/OK BORDER AS THE UL TROF DEEPENS FURTHER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS WITH MOD TO HVY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF OK/TX
PANHANDLE. THE TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW IN OK/AR SEEMS TO STILL BE
AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS AWAY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
832 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 915 AM CST
* AT 828 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CROCKETT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROCKETT...GRAPELAND...LOVELADY...KENNARD AND LATEXO.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
832 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 915 AM CST
* AT 828 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CROCKETT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROCKETT...GRAPELAND...LOVELADY...KENNARD AND LATEXO.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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HGX reports main surface low near Hearne with a pressure reading of 998mb and rapidly falling with winds gusting to 43 kts.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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TORNADO WARNING
TXC225-251530-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0038.121225T1442Z-121225T1530Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
842 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 930 AM CST
* AT 837 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CROCKETT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROCKETT...LOVELADY...KENNARD AND LATEXO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ISSUED
FOR THE SAME AREA.
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3157 9522 3158 9517 3154 9514 3151 9510
3150 9510 3149 9511 3147 9510 3147 9506
3140 9497 3099 9557 3127 9569 3159 9528
TIME...MOT...LOC 1437Z 230DEG 42KT 3118 9562
$$
39
TXC225-251530-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0038.121225T1442Z-121225T1530Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
842 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 930 AM CST
* AT 837 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CROCKETT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROCKETT...LOVELADY...KENNARD AND LATEXO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ISSUED
FOR THE SAME AREA.
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3157 9522 3158 9517 3154 9514 3151 9510
3150 9510 3149 9511 3147 9510 3147 9506
3140 9497 3099 9557 3127 9569 3159 9528
TIME...MOT...LOC 1437Z 230DEG 42KT 3118 9562
$$
39
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srainhoutx
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...E AND SE TX/WRN AND NRN LA/PART OF WEST
CENTRAL-SWRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691...
VALID 251446Z - 251545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED BY 1450Z WITH
AFFECTED WFO/S FROM NE/E TX THROUGH NRN LA TO WEST CENTRAL-SWRN
MS...WITH HAIL AND A LOCAL STRONG WIND GUST POSSIBLE.
A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SERN TX/UPPER TX
COAST AREA INTO SWRN LA TO THE WEST OF WW 692...AS AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z.
DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING TRENDS IN UPPER AIR DATA/SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD
ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL TX...WITH 140 METER/12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT
FALLS AT 12Z AT MAF. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT/DPVA WILL SPREAD EWD
INTO E TX/LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. AT 14Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EWD
FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR CLL THROUGH SRN LA /60-80 MILES N OF THE
GULF COAST/ AND INTO FAR SERN MS TO ALONG THE COAST OF THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE.
...NERN TX/NRN LA/WEST CENTRAL-SWRN MS...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED ONGOING TSTMS ALONG AND N OF THE WARM
FRONT IN MUCH OF THE NERN QUARTER OF TX...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/ADVANCE ENEWD INTO NRN LA AND EVENTUALLY WEST
CENTRAL-SWRN MS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AOA 8 C/KM PER 12Z TX AND LCH SOUNDINGS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 60 KT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE
SHALLOW.
...SERN TX TO SWRN LA...
STRONG VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS ARE RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH OF
300-400 MS/S2 ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. THESE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 50 KT AND A 90-100 KT WLY MIDLEVEL JET
TRANSLATES EWD INTO SE TX...LA AND SRN MS. THIS COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT WELL
ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SOME
POTENTIAL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NWRN GULF.
HOWEVER...STRONG/DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL MOVE INTO SERN TX THIS
MORNING...PROMOTING SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND THE THREAT
FOR TORNADOES.
..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 12/25/2012
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...E AND SE TX/WRN AND NRN LA/PART OF WEST
CENTRAL-SWRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691...
VALID 251446Z - 251545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED BY 1450Z WITH
AFFECTED WFO/S FROM NE/E TX THROUGH NRN LA TO WEST CENTRAL-SWRN
MS...WITH HAIL AND A LOCAL STRONG WIND GUST POSSIBLE.
A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SERN TX/UPPER TX
COAST AREA INTO SWRN LA TO THE WEST OF WW 692...AS AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z.
DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING TRENDS IN UPPER AIR DATA/SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD
ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL TX...WITH 140 METER/12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT
FALLS AT 12Z AT MAF. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT/DPVA WILL SPREAD EWD
INTO E TX/LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. AT 14Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EWD
FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR CLL THROUGH SRN LA /60-80 MILES N OF THE
GULF COAST/ AND INTO FAR SERN MS TO ALONG THE COAST OF THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE.
...NERN TX/NRN LA/WEST CENTRAL-SWRN MS...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED ONGOING TSTMS ALONG AND N OF THE WARM
FRONT IN MUCH OF THE NERN QUARTER OF TX...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/ADVANCE ENEWD INTO NRN LA AND EVENTUALLY WEST
CENTRAL-SWRN MS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AOA 8 C/KM PER 12Z TX AND LCH SOUNDINGS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 60 KT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE
SHALLOW.
...SERN TX TO SWRN LA...
STRONG VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS ARE RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH OF
300-400 MS/S2 ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. THESE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 50 KT AND A 90-100 KT WLY MIDLEVEL JET
TRANSLATES EWD INTO SE TX...LA AND SRN MS. THIS COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT WELL
ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SOME
POTENTIAL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NWRN GULF.
HOWEVER...STRONG/DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL MOVE INTO SERN TX THIS
MORNING...PROMOTING SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND THE THREAT
FOR TORNADOES.
..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 12/25/2012
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
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txflagwaver
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Wow..I know folks that changed their plans because the weather was supposed to be bad...we actually did not leave all the lights on and the blow ups blown up as is the tradition on Christmas Eve, thinking storms and winds were coming during the night.
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srainhoutx
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Winds just gusted to 61 mph in Hearne
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srainhoutx
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New Thunderstorm Watch issued for NE TX/Louisiana
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srainhoutx
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HGX issues tonado warning for Houston, Polk, Trinity Counties
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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This is looking like a bust for much of the Houston area...