January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month

[JackCruz]

Isn't it funny how to models always back off the cold weather after a couple of days or even hours but when it comes to warm weather, they hold onto it tight! Anyways...I hate in between weather, if it's going to be cold then be downright cold and if it's going to be warm then be downright hot. I don't care...winter is OVER. No give us the 100 degree weather and stop with this 70-80 degree weather or the 60 degree weather next week...why tease us mother nature? No snow, no cold, no nothing this winter; flop! By the way it's also ironic that we're quick to break the high temps but never the low temps. Where are our teens and single digits?

[cristina99]

As much as I WANT to hold out hope that February will be cold, I have to bow down to reality. Shucks! I don't think these models know how to predict Texas weather. I have gotten headaches the last few days because of this flip flopping back and forth. I enjoy the winter weather, always have. I like JackCruz's comment.....well except the part about the 100 degree weather. If winter iS over, then I need a few months to ease my way into sweltering hot days - where my a/c can't keep up with the heat. Please, are there any other cold weather people out there who want to tell me to hold on to my dreams. I want a few more cold days....please.

[Ptarmigan]

Isn't it funny how to models always back off the cold weather after a couple of days or even hours but when it comes to warm weather, they hold onto it tight! Anyways...I hate in between weather, if it's going to be cold then be downright cold and if it's going to be warm then be downright hot. I don't care...winter is OVER. No give us the 100 degree weather and stop with this 70-80 degree weather or the 60 degree weather next week...why tease us mother nature? No snow, no cold, no nothing this winter; flop! By the way it's also ironic that we're quick to break the high temps but never the low temps. Where are our teens and single digits?

Cold weather has been harder to forecast. Some could be black swan events. I consider the 1895 and 1899 freeze to be a black swan event. Same could be said of January 1886, January 1888, January 1930, January 1940, January 1949, January/February 1951, and January 1962 freeze. The January 1940 freeze had Hobby Airport see a low of 5°F, while Houston Weather Bureau Office saw a low of 14°F. Hobby has seen two single digit temperatures from 1930 to now, which occurred in 1940 and 1989. On average, Hobby should see single digits every 40.5 years from 1930 to 2013.

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1765

[wxman57]

There is no truth to the rumor that I've been tweaking the models to give us more warm air in TX.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Almost time for the boring, disgusting part of the year.... Spring/Summer in Houston.

I'll see yall again when a Hurricane sniffs the coast or it starts cooling off again.

[Portastorm]

There is no truth to the rumor that I've been tweaking the models to give us more warm air in TX.

I have my doubts, especially after two consecutive 80-degree-plus days here in Austin!

MontgomeryCoWx, see you next Thursday!

[C2G]

cristina, I'm sure there will be a few more cool fronts before the onset of Spring and our glorious summer.

[jasons2k]

By the way it's also ironic that we're quick to break the high temps but never the low temps. Where are our teens and single digits?

They're in the record books, where they belong. This is Houston, after all, so single digits would be a very, very rare event indeed.

[Portastorm]

cristina, I'm sure there will be a few more cool fronts before the onset of Spring and our glorious summer.

I have heard summer in Texas, let alone southeast Texas, described in many ways ... but this is the first time I have seen anyone call it "glorious."

Summers in Texas seem to grow drier and hotter each year. My own part of the Lone Star State is quickly becoming the Gateway to the Sonoran Desert. I think I can wait a bit for that to roll around again. Give me some temps in the 20s and 30s and a nice sleet/snow storm or two but the oven gets cranked up.

Unfortunately I see little signs of hope in the operational model runs and ensembles.

[srainhoutx]

The trends overnight via the Global operational ensemble guidance suggest a severe weather episode has increased once again after a couple of days of model flip flopping. The main concerns appear to be damaging winds and hail with perhaps an isolated tornado or two from NE Texas into Arkansas, Louisiana and on E across the Northern Gulf Coast States. The SPC has once again outlined a Day 4/5 Risk area, but some uncertainty remains and the Outlook area may be reconfigured as we get closer to the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. In the cold sector, light to moderate snow can be expected across portions of New Mexico and the TX/OK Panhandle Region. Should the trends continue the severe potential may increase further to our E into Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE PRESENTS A BETTER GENERAL CONSENSUS
IN THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WHILE THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE
CONFIGURATIONS AND MAGNITUDES OF THE VARIOUS FLOW FIELDS AND
PARAMETERS...ANALYSIS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/GFS ENSEMBLE AND
DPROG/DT LOOPS LEND SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR THE REINTRODUCTION OF A
SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST...NOW VALID FOR D4/TUESDAY...WITH A
CONTINUING THREAT INTO AT LEAST PART OF D5/WEDNESDAY.

AS INDICATED IN THE D3 OTLK...A WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE SCNTRL U.S. AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. WHILE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND LESS FULLY-PHASED UPPER
TROUGH WHEN COMPARED WITH GFS/UKMET MODELS...EVEN IT COMES AROUND TO
FORECASTING AN AMPLIFIED AND SUBSTANTIALLY PHASED LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE SCNTRL AND ERN U.S. BEGINNING D4/TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH D5/WEDNESDAY. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
RAPID ONSET OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SHARPENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP EWD/SEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND THEN TO THE
TN VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AS CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS IN
EITHER SUPERCELL OR LINEAR FORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX TO SERN MO/WRN TN. SQUALL LINE OR LINE SEGMENT EVOLUTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH TIME AS COLD FRONT/CONVECTIVE COLD
POOLS FURTHER INTENSIFY AMIDST MODEST INSTABILITY. DAMAGING
WINDS...POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD...WILL BE THE GREATEST HAZARD WITH THIS
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
TORNADOES AS WELL.

EXPECT THE STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A QLSC WITH DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY/D5. BEYOND THIS TIME...GREATER MODEL SPREAD AND RESULTING
UNCERTAINTY BEGIN TO IMPACT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER.
HAVE OPTED TO RELY ON GFS ENSEMBLE JOINT PROBABILITY FORECASTS FOR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THESE PRODUCTS SUGGEST
THAT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH EWD
EXTENT DESPITE STRONG QPF AND UVV SIGNALS ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT
TO THE EAST COAST. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE ADDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS IF MODEL CONSENSUS IMPROVES.

..CARBIN.. 01/26/2013


The 12Z GFS is suggesting a bit stronger and more neutral trough axis with embedded short wave activity and robust 250mb jet streak that will need to be monitored as we get a bit closer. If the 500mb upper low should close off a bit further W and slow down, an increase in a more active event may be possible into Central Texas. Also of note, the 12Z GFS is ‘colder’ following the frontal passage allowing colder air to be pulled S into the Plains and into Texas as the trough is more neutral. We will see.

78 Hour:

84 Hour:

90 Hour:

96 Hour:

102 Hour:

[Portastorm]

cristina, I'm sure there will be a few more cool fronts before the onset of Spring and our glorious summer.

I have heard summer in Texas, let alone southeast Texas, described in many ways ... but this is the first time I have seen anyone call it "glorious."

Summers in Texas seem to grow drier and hotter each year. My own part of the Lone Star State is quickly becoming the Gateway to the Sonoran Desert. I think I can wait a bit for that to roll around again. Give me some temps in the 20s and 30s and a nice sleet/snow storm or two but the oven gets cranked up.

Unfortunately I see little signs of hope in the operational model runs and ensembles.

Chihuahuan desert, actually. MAF area is on the Eastern edges of the Chihuahuan desert. I-35 has always sort of been the East/West line of where it doesn't come close to raining enough.

Thanks Ed. Good catch! I need to get my desert names correct before I pitch the new city slogan to the Austin City Council. Heh.

Since snow/sleet look unlikely for me, here's to some "fun"-derstorms this week and rain.

[mcheer23]

So are we suppose to get rain?

[srainhoutx]

The much anticipated active weather that has been discussed this past week appears to be taking shape this early Sunday to our NW along the British Columbia/Pacific NW Coast where a Gulf of Alaska storm complex with embedded short waves moves inland and begins to drop S into Southern California/Arizona.



Across the Plains, the cut off low that has plagued the Desert SW late last week bringing Valley rains and very wet higher elevation snow fall is ejecting ENE and bringing much warmer temps across that Region setting the stage for the events discussed for the late January time frame.

The Global operational and ensembles guidance has settled down after a couple of volatile days where wild swings and lack of run to run continuity were observed providing for a very challenging forecast that could provide ideas of the sensible weather expected Tuesday on to the end of January. While there remains some timing issues, all signs point to a severe episode from Central/N Central/NE Texas on N and E during Day 3 (Tuesday) extending E across the Ohio/Tennessee Valley Regions and the Northern Gulf Coastal States on Day 4 (Wednesday) before moving off the East Coast on late Wednesday/early Thursday.

The Day 3 and 4 time frame will need to be monitored as the is potential for an Upgrade to a Moderate Risk if conditions and future reliable short range meso guidance trend to a stronger jet structure within right rear entrance region and a stronger surface low with the embedded short waves rotating around of the base of the trough axis develop. The limiting factor will be capping issues with the SW flow aloft as well as the time of day the storms begin to fire and if a dry punch or dry line develops during the day on Tuesday across West Texas. As the SPC outlined in their Day 3 Slight Risk issuance, a Moderate Risk may be needed as we get a bit closer to Tuesday and that higher Risk may be shifted further E on Wednesday where super cells and the threat of tornadoes may be greater. At this time the main threat appears to be damaging wind and hail, but an isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out as the event appears to be more of a squall line or linear event rather than a multi rotating super cell potential. If guidance trends to a more neutral trough with a strong 500mb /250mb jet streak or upper low, a Moderate Risk could be issued. Stay Tuned to this developing severe weather episode that could have affects all the way from the Southern Plains, Upper Mid West to the East Coast.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX NORTHEAST TO IL AND
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND LOWER MS VALLEY
FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SWATH OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM CNTRL AND NERN
TX...NRN LA...ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND SERN MO...AND EAST AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE MS RIVER FROM IL TO MS. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
OVERLY DETAILED REGARDING THE CHARACTER OF THIS EVENT...THE
SIZE...STRENGTH...AND RAPID EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
SYSTEM...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTENSIVE AND FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS SOME OR ALL OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS FROM AROUND
MID-DAY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

...TX TO IL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND NOT SO PHASED DEPICTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS SHOWN BY LATEST ECMWF AND NAM THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THESE
SCENARIOS INDICATE A MOIST BUT GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED FROM TX NEWD ACROSS MO AND INTO IL BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
COMPENSATED FOR BY RELATIVELY RAPID ONSET OF INTENSE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF MID/UPPER TROUGH AND 100KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TO NEAR ARLATEX BY
AROUND 00Z. DEEP CONVECTION WILL ERUPT ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF
THE SHARPENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EVER INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/FLOW.
EXTENSIVE QLCS APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CELL MOTIONS FORECAST IN EXCESS OF
50KT LEADING DAMAGING WINDS. LACK OF STRONGER CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS LINEAR MODE SHOULD DOMINATE BUT
SUPERCELLS AND LEWPS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND NEAR TRANSIENT FRONTAL
WAVE STRUCTURES WOULD POSE SOME TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL TIMING AND DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE HIGHER OR SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES AT THIS
FORECAST RANGE. HOWEVER...FUTURE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK SEEMS POSSIBLE
IF THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

..CARBIN.. 01/27/2013

[SusieinLP]

Just had a nice shower in La Porte. Did not last long but it's getting dark again....

[mckinne63]

I was wondering if if we perhaps had a chance for rain today. It's getting very cloudy and breezy here in Stafford. If it has to be warm, I would prefer at least some rain. Really hate wearing shorts in January!

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Near record warmth will continue ahead of a strong storm system to arrive into the central plains Tuesday.

Deep long wave trough over the western US is supporting a persistent SE low level flow of air with origins in the southern Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean Sea. The result is near record to above record warmth across much of the nation east of the Rockies. As this storm system moves into the plains tomorrow the stage will be set for a rare widespread severe weather outbreak from the Great Lakes to TX.

Locally strong winds overnight has led to more stratus this morning than fog and while dewpoints are above the nearshore water temperatures these stronger winds are keeping the sea fog minimal at the moment. Moisture has continued to deepen over the region since yesterday morning and this has allowed a few scattered short lived showers to develop in the rapid low level flow. Expect this onshore flow pattern to remain in place for the next 24-36 hours with warm and humid conditions continuing.

Tail end of the central plains storm system will graze the area late Tuesday with a cold frontal passage in the evening hours on Tuesday. Parameters are not completely aligned for a good chance of severe weather or rainfall over SE TX even though this system will favor strong dynamics aloft. Best moisture and low level jet feed shifts eastward during the afternoon hours on Tuesday prior to the arrival of the surface front and best lifting aloft. Additionally, mid level winds veer increasingly toward the southwest suggesting capping will evolve out of NE MX and into SC and coastal TX during the day on Tuesday. SPC slight risk outline reaches down to roughly the I-10 corridor, but think the best chances of any strong to severe storms will be NE of a College Station to Livingston line where moisture will be greatest and capping weakest. SW of this line a line of showers and thunderstorms will be possible although the latest TT model suggest very limited activity over the southern portions of the area. Timing of the activity into SE TX should range between 300pm (NW) to near 1000pm (coast). Will need to take a close looking at the thermodynamic profiles Tuesday morning to better define the rain chances and any marginal severe threat.

Fast moving cold front will usher in near normal temperatures for late January. Lows will fall back into the 40’s with highs in the 60’s for the rest of the week into next weekend under mainly sunny skies. Air mass will only slowly modify with south winds returning by next weekend.

Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday

[srainhoutx]

Ed, my' favored' has been Eastern OK/AR/W TN/LA/MS/AL for this episode. I also suspect a Slight Risk may be forthcoming W of the Metroplex near Brownwood. The dry line on E will need to be watched carefully tomorrow. The 12Z 4km WRF was rather impressive.

[srainhoutx]

SPC issues Moderate Risk Severe Storm for tomorrow for portions of Central/Eastern Arkansas, Northern Louisiana and Western Mississippi.

[Katdaddy]

Large area under a Slight Risk today.

[srainhoutx]

Active/Changeable Weather Day Ahead:

After a week of above normal temps and increased humidity, changes will occur today across our Region. A strong surface low is currently over IA with the Polar boundary with a warm front moving slowly N. To our W another surface low has developed near Pueblo, CO and cyclogenesis is beginning across the Panhandle of TX/OK. A pacific front is currently moving across NM and a strong 500mb vort max at the base of a potent neutral tilted trough will set the stage for a dry line to develop across W TX. Ahead of the dry line and approaching Pacific front, rich Gulf moisture is streaming N setting the stage for a rare January severe episode. The SPC has issued a Moderate Risk for Severe Storms center over Arkansas and portions of the surrounding States.

The biggest concern for most of our Region will come in the form of a fast moving squall line expected to develop later today across W Central Texas on NE. Damaging wind is the primary threat for Texas, but an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Following the front, much cooler air and gusty NW winds and very dry dew points raises concerns for rapid development of wild fires on Wednesday as not much in the way of rain is expected with this fast moving storm complex.