February-Comfortable Days/Cool Nights To The Month

[srainhoutx]

HPC Morning Medium Range Update:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1012 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2013

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 15 2013 - 12Z TUE FEB 19 2013


THE PATTERN IS AN ACTIVE ONE FOR THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES THIS
PERIOD, WITH ENERGY TRAVERSING THE NATION COAST TO COAST. THIS IS
PEAK CLIMATOLOGY FOR WINTER STORMS OVER THE EASTERN STATES, SO ANY
PHASING OF THE SPLIT FLOW COULD RESULT IN A HIGHLY IMPACTFUL
CYCLONE FOR THAT REGION. THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS FATED ON PHASING
THAT MAY PROVE TO HAVE SUCH IMPACT. THE FIRST WILL BE COMPLEX
CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST DAY 4. THE 00Z/12 GEM GLOBAL
PHASES ENERGY MORE QUICKLY AND AGGRESSIVELY THAN THE OTHER MODELS,
WITH THE 00Z/12 GEFS MEAN IMPRESSIVELY DEVELOPED AS WELL. THE
00Z/12 ECENS MEAN INDICATES MODEST PHASING JUST OFFSHORE, SLIGHTLY
MORE DEVELOPED THAN EITHER THE 00Z/12 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF OR THE
00Z/12 DETERMINISTIC GFS. CHOSE THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE SKILLFUL
ECENS MEAN FOR THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM--THE BAGGINESS IN ITS
SURFACE PRESSURES OFFSHORE ALLOWING WIGGLE ROOM FOR FURTHER
TRENDING. THE SECOND SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS EXPECTED TO COALESCE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS LATE DAY 6 INTO DAY 7. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE OF
SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO VIGOROUSLY TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO, WITH
IMPORT FOR BOTH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS WELL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH. THE LION'S SHARE OF
ENERGY FEEDING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE FAR WEST MID
PERIOD IN THE MANNER OF MOST OF THE SHORTWAVES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE
OVER THAT REGION. THESE "INSIDE SLIDERS" PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
IMPORT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BY THE NATURE OF THEIR TRAJECTORIES. AS
WITH THE EAST COAST SYSTEM EARLIER IN THE FORECAST, THE ECENS MEAN
APPEARS TO REPRESENT A MIDDLE ROAD AND IS THE MOST COHERENT OF THE
RECENT GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE TEMPORAL PROGRESSION OF THE
FLOW.


CISCO

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Upper level storm system moving across NW TX this morning bringing fog and drizzle to much of eastern TX.

Surface low pressure near Victoria is lifting northeast this morning with a well defined warm front along the upper TX coast. Dewpoints are near or above 70 south of this front and in the upper 50’s near the coast. Dense fog has developed over much of the area due to the warm moist Gulf air mass gliding up and over the top of the very shallow surface cool dome. Do not think the warm front will make much if any northward progress today, but could push onshore near Galveston and High Island early this afternoon. Main thrust of lift associated with the upper level system has been aimed at N and NE TX this morning and short term guidance suggest only a few showers are likely this morning over SE TX with much better chances over Louisiana and points eastward.

Prefrontal trough now over the I-35 corridor will reach the coast by early to mid afternoon and this should disperse the fog and drizzle although clouds may be harder to break. Cannot rule out a few showers or even an isolated thunderstorms along this boundary…but lack of activity so far this morning is suggestive that anything will be weak and isolated. Actual cold front blasts through the area this evening with much colder conditions overnight into Wednesday. Lows will fall into the 40’s under gusty NW winds and highs on Wednesday will only reach 60. Clouds may linger into the first part of Wednesday as moisture is trapped under the frontal inversion.

High pressure will be in control Thursday and most of Friday before a fast moving “clipper” type weather system arrives Friday night. This interesting feature will be a very strong short wave on the backside (western flank) of a large eastern US upper level trough. The incoming amplitude and direction of movement of this feature is not overly supportive of rainfall production as it allows almost no time for Gulf moisture to return to the region. However the GFS model continues to generate post frontal light rainfall across the area late Friday night/Saturday morning. Think the drier guidance (CMC and ECMWF) is on the correct thinking, but just in case the GFS is correct, there could be a brief period of light rain/light snow mix over our far northern counties early Saturday morning as suggested by model critical thickness parameters and forecast soundings. Surface layer will be well above freezing so anything that falls will melt on contact. Quick hitting cold air intrusion could bring freezing temperatures to much of the area on Sunday morning before rapid return flow and southerly winds bring back moisture, warmer temperatures and humidity.

[srainhoutx]

Snow falling just N of Lubbock along I-27 in Hale County...

02122013 Hale CNTY TX TMCE8%20CCTV%20Pump%20Station_LBB.jpg (9.34 KiB) Viewed 5594 times

16 Miles E of TX/NM border along I-40...

02122013 I40 16 Mile E of NM Border I40%20-%2016%20Mi_%20E%20of%20New%20Mexico_AMA.jpg (5.16 KiB) Viewed 5590 times

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is suggesting possible 1-2 inch amounts for wintry mischief Friday night into early Saturday morning for areas near Temple/Waco/Hearne...

[Belmer]

Very cold air building in Alaska and will head into western Canada and south looks like in the longer range. Something else to watch I suppose?

[srainhoutx]

lol...

[srainhoutx]

It certainly appears we will stay in a very unsettled pattern into next week. Roller coaster temps and very changeable weather seems to be the theme looking into the Medium/Long range.

168 Hour 12Z Euro:

216 Hour 12Z Euro:

[Belmer]

Last year, the snow barley missed San Marcos and the Austin area last February, so my friends and I drove up north. Our plan was to drive to Abilene where the best snowfall accumulation was going to be, however, we only got to Comanche (just SE of Abilene) because it went from 36 degrees of rain, to 33 degrees to snow pretty quickly while on Highway 36. My friends and I stayed in Comanche for a few hours and enjoyed the snow while the temperature kept dropping (lowest it got was 28) and was still snowing. I was a bit nervous since temps weren't predicted to be that low at 6-8pm and snow was starting to accumulate on the roads.
Anyway, moral of the story was... That 3 hour drive was worth it to see some snow, and I am planning on another trip this year since it doesn't look like the snow will get as far south as the Austin area.
I've seen that snow may get as far south as the Waco area this weekend. If that trend continues, I might go up and see my brother who is currently attending Baylor and crash with him for the weekend. However, I see there may be a few more chances before the 25th of some more snow shots for TX. So I'm not sure what to do at this point.
Does anything look more promising/hopeful down the road than this weekend?

[JackCruz]

I just wanna see a snowflake, I'll give anything to see a snowflake...maybe two, but I'm not greedy. I'm not even asking for a dusting, or 0.100058696 inches. I'm just asking for ONE snowflake to fall from the heavens. Time is almost over, summer soon come

[C2G]

I just wanna see a snowflake, I'll give anything to see a snowflake...maybe two, but I'm not greedy. I'm not even asking for a dusting, or 0.100058696 inches. I'm just asking for ONE snowflake to fall from the heavens. Time is almost over, summer soon come

Never works that way, Jack. Believe me you see one and you'll hope for another and another. One will just wet the appetite that can never be satisfied. Luckily in 2004, 2008, and I believe in 2009, I saw good snows. 04 was the most memorable because it was the first snow I'd seen in a while and the first my kid, who was ten at the time, had ever seen.
One flake won't be enough.

[Katdaddy]

Very true Cloud2ground. 2004 was amazing. I too live in NW Galveston County near Magnolia Creeks just E of Friendswood. That was incredible to have a Christmas Eve snowfall.

[Ptarmigan]

I just wanna see a snowflake, I'll give anything to see a snowflake...maybe two, but I'm not greedy. I'm not even asking for a dusting, or 0.100058696 inches. I'm just asking for ONE snowflake to fall from the heavens. Time is almost over, summer soon come

Never works that way, Jack. Believe me you see one and you'll hope for another and another. One will just wet the appetite that can never be satisfied. Luckily in 2004, 2008, and I believe in 2009, I saw good snows. 04 was the most memorable because it was the first snow I'd seen in a while and the first my kid, who was ten at the time, had ever seen.
One flake won't be enough.

It snowed on December 4, 2009, the earliest +1 inch snowfall.

[srainhoutx]

A break from the clouds and showers are ahead for a couple of day before a Canadian front arrives overnight Thursday into Friday chilling us down to the 30’s. The GFS has backed off the with available moisture from the ‘Clipper like’ short wave diving SE along the W flank of the developing East Coast trough while the Euro still suggests some lift albeit weak may squeeze out some very light rain and possibly a stray flurry or sleet pellet or two, but those chances did decrease for Friday night/early Saturday. A quick shot of cold air will be replaced by a return flow off the Gulf on Sunday as another storm systems dives S from the Pacific NW into the Great Basis. Showers and storms may be possible Monday night into Tuesday mainly across E Texas into Louisiana before yet another front passes.

The active pattern continues into next week with a very progressive flow off the Pacific and additional storms systems to our West developing and moving across the Southern tier of the US as the sub tropical jet remains active and the a general trough develops that cover most of the Lower 48 with a Ridge developing over the NE Pacific and system riding over the top of that ridge and heading S into the Great Basin tapping Pacific and Gulf moisture as the move E. It is note worthy that when we have a noisy sub tropical jet in the neighborhood, embedded upper air disturbance can become very unpredictable and difficult to forecast as we witnessed early this morning across our Coastal areas. The next 8-10 day appear to be the ‘coldest’ we’ll see this month (not colder than January) and with an active storm track, bouts of rain/storms and winter weather further N across the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains N of the Red River may well be in the offing.



00Z Euro:

[Portastorm]

Last year, the snow barley missed San Marcos and the Austin area last February, so my friends and I drove up north. Our plan was to drive to Abilene where the best snowfall accumulation was going to be, however, we only got to Comanche (just SE of Abilene) because it went from 36 degrees of rain, to 33 degrees to snow pretty quickly while on Highway 36. My friends and I stayed in Comanche for a few hours and enjoyed the snow while the temperature kept dropping (lowest it got was 28) and was still snowing. I was a bit nervous since temps weren't predicted to be that low at 6-8pm and snow was starting to accumulate on the roads.
Anyway, moral of the story was... That 3 hour drive was worth it to see some snow, and I am planning on another trip this year since it doesn't look like the snow will get as far south as the Austin area.
I've seen that snow may get as far south as the Waco area this weekend. If that trend continues, I might go up and see my brother who is currently attending Baylor and crash with him for the weekend. However, I see there may be a few more chances before the 25th of some more snow shots for TX. So I'm not sure what to do at this point.
Does anything look more promising/hopeful down the road than this weekend?

I feel your pain Belmer. I told srainhoutx this morning that I'm about ready to stick a fork into my hopes that the Austin area might see even a minor winter weather event. The "noisy" subtropical jet is there but I just don't see us getting cold enough for any real "excitement." That will all be up north and probably north of I-20 and in the Panhandle and parts of the Caprock areas.

This will make two winters in a row where we had no winter weather events. I'd have to do some research but it's been a while I think since that has happened. Usually we get at least some sort of freezing drizzle event which shuts down the town for a day. But nope. Not in 2011 or 2012. Have to go back to February 2010.

[wxman57]

The 00Z Euro keeps the snow quite far to the north. About 1/4" across NE OK and NW Arkansas. GFS has nothing in Texas. The map below is liquid equivalent 24hr snowfall in millimeters. Just a bit over 1mm = about .03" liquid.

[srainhoutx]

Nice visible shot of all the snow on the ground across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles on E...

[srainhoutx]

Well the 12Z Euro certainly does raise an eyebrow for late Friday into early Saturday...lol

Edit to add the HPC has tasked an additional Pacifc Winter Storm RECON mission for tomorrow afternoon and possibly Friday as well.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EST WED 13 FEBRUARY 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013
WSPOD NUMBER.....12-075

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. P28/ DROP 10 (35.0N 150.0W)/ 15/0000Z
B NOAA9 11WSC TRACK28
C. 14/1930Z
D. 19 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 15/0600Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE
P21/ DROP 10 (40.0N 135.0W)/ 16/00000Z
3. REMARK: THE NOAA G-IV WILL FLY TRACK P-9 TODAY AS
DETAILED IN WSPOD 12-074.

[harpman]

Can you elaborate, sir? Thanks.

[srainhoutx]

Can you elaborate, sir? Thanks.

There is enough lift albeit weak via the Euro to spit out some light moisture post frontal after mid night Friday. The $64,000 question is will we see some flurries with that upper air disturbance or not? That remains to be seen. Surface temps are a bit too warm for anything other than a novelty at this time.

NWS Houston/Galveston:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CST WED FEB 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST WITH THE FLOW OVER TEXAS BEING
INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LAGGING TROUGH. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EASTERN MONTANA
TODAY WILL MAKE THE TREK SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARRIVING
IN SETX ON FRIDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHERN AREAS THEN ON TO THE
COAST BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY. PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED A CHANCE OF
SNOW/RAIN/IP MIX AND THEN IN 00Z RUNS BACKED OFF ON THIS EXCEPT
FOR THE ECMWF. TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NW BUT UPPER JET LOOKS
SLIGHTLY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. THIS SET OF RUNS 12Z HAVE KEPT THE PROFILE WARMER AND
DRIER UNDERNEATH A MOIST SUB FREEZING LAYER FROM 850-600MB
(EXCEPT THE ECMWF) BUT IT LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF VIRGA WILL BE IN
THE OFFING...MAY GET SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING (34-38) SO NO IMPACTS IF ANY
REACH THE GROUND WITH IT MELTING ON CONTACT. WILL NOT MENTION ANY
IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MIDNIGHT TO
15Z WINDOW ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY
DIP TO AROUND 30-32 IN THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS (ROUGHLY
MADISONVILLE TO GROVETON NORTHEASTWARD)SO TENDER VEGETATION MAY
NEED SOME PROTECTION FOR ALL THE EARLY GARDENERS.

18Z NAM:

18Z HIRES NAM:

[harpman]

Thank you. Don't see any possibilities for S.E. La. But, you never know......a few days ago, the models did have overunning precip and the 540 line was well south of us here.....