February-Comfortable Days/Cool Nights To The Month

[srainhoutx]

0.20 emptied from my old rain bucket this afternoon. So far for the year I have 5.23 inches.

[srainhoutx]

The progressive pattern will continue throughout the weekend into next week as storm systems march E across the North Pacific and head inland before turning S along a Western trough and eject E into the Southern Plains. The zonal split flow pattern appears to remain in place until the mid week time frame when ridging begins to develop to our W and a deep anomalous Eastern trough becomes anchored across the Plains to the East Coast.

The next storm system will eject out of the Desert SW late Sunday and move across Texas/Oklahoma bringing bouts of wintry weather in the cold sector and light showers and isolated elevated storms across portions of E Texas on E into Louisiana where modest moisture returns from the Gulf may make it inland. It should be noted that the track of this storm is a bit further S than what we have been experiencing so far the season due to the blocking regime across Greenland stretching W to Ontario and -AO/+PNA. The sub tropical jet remains entrenched over the Southern half of Texas and Louisiana on E throughout the upcoming period.

Looking into the medium range time frame of late February, there continues to be indications that unseasonably chilly air may well be possible for the Eastern half of Texas on E where temps may well fall to the 10-15 degrees below normal range. With a dry N to NW flow aloft riding over the building Western Ridge, rain chance appear limited. The fly in the ointment will be the close proximity of the noisy sub tropical jet and any embedded upper air disturbance that may affect the Coastal areas. Winter Storm RECON continues across the Gulf of Alaska where 16 drops were included in the 00Z suite of computer guidance and additional missions are tasked for tonight to further aid the Global models. Also of note is the possibility of a major East Coast storm next week and that will need to need to be monitored for those with travel plans during the last days of February.


Ensembles Early Next Week:

Ensembles Mid Next Week:

[wxman57]

Agree. Return flow looks minimal the next few weeks. Chances of any significant rainfall are low. I got .56" yesterday.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting note from the HPC about the Canadian model since the upgrade. It appears the 12Z GFS has trended to what the Canadian had been suggesting and we may not be able to call it our crazy uncle any longer...

DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST MONDAY
PREFERENCE: 00Z UKMET WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE

THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF MEAN OUTPACE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
WITH THIS SYSTEM'S EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE RIDGE/TROUGH
CONFIGURATION THIS SYSTEM PARTIALLY COMPRISES IS MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH AMERICA, ARGUING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION,
SIMILAR TO THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE. THERE IS AN UPSTREAM KICKER
WITHIN 2000 NM TO ITS WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE RIDGE UPSTREAM IS NOT
AMPLIFYING, WHICH DOES NOT FAVOR THE SLOWER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER,
BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GEFS MEANS ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND
ESPECIALLY THE NAM/SREF MEAN. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWEST/SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM, TOWARDS THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE.
THE 00Z CANADIAN IS THE MOST SOUTHERLY OF THE GUIDANCE, WHICH FITS
ONE OF ITS TRADITIONAL BIASES WITH CLOSED LOWS. HOWEVER, ITS
PHYSICS WERE UPGRADED LAST WEEK, SO THIS BIAS MAY NO LONGER BE
RELEVANT. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, THE GFS/NAM ARE NOT BEING
CONSIDERED USEFUL AT THIS TIME. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A
COMPROMISE OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE, CLOSEST TO THE 00Z UKMET
WHICH LIES BETWEEN THE 06Z GEFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS CHOICE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE SINCE THE
SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE YET AMPLIFIED.


00Z Canadian:

12Z GFS:

[srainhoutx]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

VALID 12Z MON FEB 25 2013 - 12Z FRI MAR 01 2013

...'BLOCKY' PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

...ACTIVE MIDWEST WINTER STORM TRACK EXPECTED...DAYS 3-5...

TRENDS CONTINUED WITH THE BLOCKY (NEGATIVE) NAO PATTERN EMERGING
IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS DEFINITELY
COME AROUND TO THE IDEA THAT THE SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST CYCLONE
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE CONUS WILL COME TO A HALT AROUND DAY 5. THE
PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND SPLITTING SYSTEMS CONTINUES
THROUGH DAY 7.

AS A BASELINE...THE MANUAL GRAPHICS EASILY MAINTAINED CONTINUITY
WITH THE PREVIOUS PROGS BY USING A BLEND OF THE 22/06Z GEFS MEAN
AND 22/00Z ECMWF MEAN. BOTH WERE GIVEN EQUAL WEIGHTING ALOFT...AND
THEIR OPERATIONAL COUNTERPARTS...SOME CONSIDERATION TO 27/00Z. THE
OPERATIONALS DID A NICE JOB WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PRIMARY
CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WITH THE CYCLONE'S INTERACTION
WITH THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCK. AFTER 27/00Z...HOWEVER...THE
PERSPECTIVES AND DETAILS WERE TOO 'ILL-DEFINED' TO REASON FOR
THEIR (THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS) CONTINUED USE. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN TERMS OF STORM TRACK AND DEPTH AFTER 27/06Z.

DAYS 3-4...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER WINTER STORM FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MIDWEST. A COARSE BLEND OF THE 00Z/06Z GUIDANCE GENERATES A
SUB 1000MB CYCLONE TRACK FROM WICHITA KS TO KALAMAZOO MI. IT IS
AFTER 27/00Z...WHEN THE GFS AND ECMWF PART WAYS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
THE DEPTH AND TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.

BEYOND DAY 5...THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE BLOCK ALLOWS THE DAY 3/4
CYCLONE TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MIDWEST TO STALL AND THE
(PRIMARY) SURFACE REFLECTION TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE CYCLONE DIES OR THE STORM IS OVER.
RATHER...THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SEPARATES FROM THAT SURFACE
WAVE...AND BECOMES THE 'DRIVER' FOR A DEEP INTRUSION OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ORIGINATING IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO. A SERIES OF DECENT
LAKE-EFFECT SNOWFALLS ARE IN THE OFFING. THIS LEANS MORE TOWARDS
THE SLOWER...LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION VS THE GFS.
DOWNSTREAM...THIS SETS UP A COLD AND WINTRY...(NORTHWEST FLOW)
PRECIPITATION REGIME FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND DOWNWIND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE.

OF NOTE...REGENERATION OF A SERIES OF SECONDARY SURFACE WAVES
ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES IS A VERY
REASONABLE CONCLUSION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THE CYCLONE
REMAINING IN PLACE BEYOND DAY 4.5 AND LIKELY TO WOBBLE IN
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY 7.

THE DETAILS WITH PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW...WINTER P-TYPE
PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC APPEAR TO BE TIED TO THE SLOW...EAST-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THE CYCLONE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THOSE DETAILS WERE POORLY HANDLED BY THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS.

VOJTESAK

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro is suggesting a similar scenario as the Canadian for late Sunday into Monday with a further S storm track. It does appear a robust Winter Storm may well develop across portions of Texas and Oklahoma with rain chances further S.

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm...a late February/early March Freeze?

[Portastorm]

Oh my goodness ... that ought to get a few tongues wagging around here, at least those hoping for a little "winter" before the oven turns back on.

[tireman4]

Oh my.....(Sound of Dick Enberg).....

[Ptarmigan]

Not unprecedented to see a freeze in late February to March. There have been freezes in March 1989 and 2002. It also snowed on March 10-11, 1932. 0.8 inches of snow fell that time.

http://www.wxresearch.com/snowhou.htm

It also got cold around Easter 2007. There was snow north of Houston.

[srainhoutx]

Also interesting to note that the G-IV that will sample the Gulf of Alaska tonight has made some changes and shift the drop tracks to the right and they are flying back to Hawaii. Perhaps some additional missions to the E of Hawaii will be tasked for the sub tropical jet. Also of note, the GEFS has also trended slower and further S and W leading to a low confidence forecast for the late weekend/early next week storm system.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EST FRI 22 FEBRUARY 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013
WSPOD NUMBER.....12-084

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 --
A. P16M/ DROP 8 (40.0N 157.0W)/ 24/0000Z
B NOAA9 17WSC TRACK16M
C. 23/2000Z
D. 8 DROPS ON MODIFIED TRACK 16
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 24/0600Z
F. RIGHT SIDE OF TRACK TO 40N 157W RECOVER PHNL

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

[Andrew]

Now that would be one hell of a trough but I suspect over the coming days the models will come into agreement on a more "realistic" outcome. Something to watch either way.

[wxman57]

Looks terrible to me. I was looking forward to 80+ degrees in March. Darn east coast low means little or no onshore flow (and warm temps) for quite a while. Not cold enough for snow, just cold enough to be miserable...

[Texas Pirate]

Tis a bad time to paint my toenails fushia (spring purple) to welcome Spring and flip flops.
*sigh*

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Love the looks of the mid to long range models. Delay those 75 plus degree days as much as possible!

Give me 2-3 weeks of lows in the 20s/30s and highs in the 40s/50s and then you can have your hell called April to September.

[losmabies]

I know the models can change as they are never really reliable until we are about 3 days out, but our oldest son is playing in a baseball tournament in the Dallas next weekend. If this pattern comes to truth, what kind of temperatures are we looking at for that region? I looked at the maps, but my eyes popped out when I saw -22.

[TexasBreeze]

Loks rather dull, and somewhat cool, the next week or so.

The good news, less than 5 days, per models, to a significant tropical cyclone landfall in Western Australia.

1 system went inland over Madagascar today with 2 more being outlooked around Australia. I like tracking those systems during our off-season.

[C2G]

My tongue's not wagging, it's salivating excessively from the nausea I'm feeling at the prospects of miserable cold. Like wxman57 already pointed out, not cold enough to snow, but cold enough to make you miserable.
YUCK
Spring, do not forsake me my youthful, glorious friend.

[srainhoutx]

Some interesting developments overnight as the trends are becoming a bit more clear that a Major Winter Storm will develop well S into Texas/Oklahoma. NWS OKC is now mentioning a Blizzard Watch upgrade form the Winter Storm Watch they have already hoisted. Also of note is now NWS Dallas/Ft Worth is seeing the trends on the non American guidance and is now mentioning a rain changing to snow in their forecast. They have noted that the snow may have to be shifted further S. The Euro/Canadian/UKmet solutions are pointing to a potential low track along and even slightly S of I-20 which may bring rain ending as snow/sleet even further S into Central Texas on E into the Northern areas of SE Texas/Louisiana/Arkansas before this storm shifts E and gets out of our hair on Tuesday. Also the 06Z GFS has come in much further S with the storm track and further adds credibility to the potential.

Further S on Sunday ahead of the storm system, rain and elevated storm chances are increasing for late Sunday into Monday. Also of note the trends are coming together that suggest freezing temps may well extent well S into S Central and SE Texas as we end February and begin March. More later about the freeze potential in the March thread.

Those that had forecasted that Winter was over may well be eating crow with those Spring Warmth forecast of 2 weeks ago. It always seems we have a strong cold snap when the Rodeo comes to Houston, doesn't it...



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2013

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL AMPLIFY SEWD INTO
THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BY EARLY SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND REACHING THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT.
SFC LOW WILL FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS BEFORE DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH OK/NRN TX. TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE NRN GULF...POSSIBLY MOVING ONSHORE OF THE
GULF COASTAL STATES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

...GULF COASTAL AREA...

GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING SFC RIDGE OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND
DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL PROMOTE INCREASING SLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
ACROSS THE NRN GULF REGION. WARM FRONT RESIDING OVER THE CNTRL GULF
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NWD...POSSIBLY REACHING
SHORE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DESTABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN
COOL SECTOR. WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION SUGGEST ANY SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN LOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ROOTED CLOSE ENOUGH TO SFC LAYER TO
WARRANT SOME CONCERN FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND AT LEAST A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELIHOOD OF WEAK
INSTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR THE WARM SECTOR CAN
DEVELOP INLAND PRECLUDES MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.

...WRN AND CNTRL OK THROUGH NCNTRL AND CNTRL TX...

MODIFIED CP AIR WILL RETURN THROUGH SRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR WITHIN
SLY FLOW REGIME EAST OF THE DEVELOPING LEE LOW. INSUFFICIENT TIME
WILL EXIST FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN...AND INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...BAND OF LOW TOPPED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP FROM OK SWD THROUGH NWRN AND CNTRL TX LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP FRONTAL FORCING AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE THE
SCANT MOISTURE...COLD AIR ALOFT AND BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING MIGHT
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY FOR A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. HAVE INTRODUCED A 5%
SEVERE COVERAGE AREA...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THE EXPECTED MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING
FACTOR.

00Z Euro:

00Z Canadian:

[C2G]

How lovely, I mean that just brightens my day to know Old Man Winter will keep his cold grip on us a while longer.
Personally, I was very hopeful/optimistic that winter would abate and let the warmth in.
I'm not overly worried, because my heat will surely win, eventually.
Yes Ed let's hope Saint Patrick ushers in Spring.......and some Funderstorms.