April - Ends on Mild Note

[srainhoutx]

Storm Prediction Center meso discussion suggest they may extend the Severe Watch a couple of hours past 11:00 PM CDT for SE TX as storms slowly head E toward DT Houston and points E.

[Rip76]

Coming through the Sageglen area pretty heavy now...
Windy and lots of rain.

Maybe I'm seeing things, but it looked like a little "hook" on the radar Ed posted about 3 frames back, near 35.

[biffb816]

Rain gauges near me range from 3/4 to 1-1/2 inches. Yay!

[TexasBreeze]

Finally got some happy amounts of rain, both Sunday and tonight!!! Anxiously watching for more from central TX moving east.

[Rip76]

That's probably the best 30-45 min storm we've had around here since before Ike.

[Belmer]

Today has been one happy day across the Lone Star State. I can't remember when this much rainfall has fallen across TX in one day with the amounts we have seen. PLUS, one surprise batch of storms followed by another one that just passed I-35. Double whammy! Anyway, the line of storms just rolled through here in San Marcos, nothing too extreme, however, there was some pea size hail for about 5 seconds and that was it. More than anything was the very gusty winds, easily tropical storm force. Not sure how many League City/Webster folks we have on here, but my friend posted this on facebook a few minutes ago who lives in Webster and she said this completely ruined her car. Windows smashed and everything. This is the only photo she posted, hopefully someone else has more. I say Webster wins the severe weather threat today as far as around the Houston area goes.

[Belmer]

To follow up on my post, several hail reports are coming in near the Webster and Sante Fe area. Looks like tennis ball/baseball size hail fell. Lots of car damage as well from what I'm hearing. What a Spring storm!

Also, line out west seems to be falling apart pretty quickly. It is also racing, literally, to the East. Back when it was west of I-35, forecasters has that line reaching Houston between 4am-7am, as of 2am, it's already approaching Sealy. Nothing severe with this line of storms, just nice moderate soaking rains.

[niner21]

How does it look for today? Is this 60% for popup stuff or another wave of rain?

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Highly active night across the region with extensive hail damage reports in a corridor from Wharton to Fort Bend County to Galveston County.

Initial line of severe weather moved off the coast around midnight while a secondary line moved through the western into the central counties between 2-4am while weakening. Skies have rapidly cleared behind this activity, but main upper level system is still NW of the area and additional short waves are moving E from N MX toward SW TX. Radar is already showing development of storms from Sonora to Laredo as a result of returning moisture up the Rio Grande and short wave lift. Air mass locally has been heavily worked over and stabilized from all the overnight activity, but with clear skies and heating this morning we should begin to recovery and destabilize by early to mid afternoon. Cold pocket associated with upper level trough will nudge closer to the area helping to make the low level unstable especially with morning surface heating.

If the air mass can recover, additional storms may develop this afternoon especially given any short wave moving out of MX helping to foster lift. With radar trends along the Rio Grande supporting this thinking currently. Cold mid-level temperatures will support a hail threat with storms this afternoon. Short term meso models are trying to develop additional rainfall this morning over the region, but this seems somewhat unlikely given the state of the air mass. Do think there is the potential for some redevelopment this afternoon into the evening hours as the air mass recovers.

Will re-evaluate later this morning/early this afternoon as trends establish.

Storm reports will be released later this morning.

[srainhoutx]

I emptied 1.27 inches of rain from the old rain bucket for the past 24 hours at 7:00 AM this morning. The Storm Prediction Center is a little less bullish on additional severe storms today, but not discounting that we may some more development to our S and W across Deep S and S Central Texas later today. The main upper level energy is still to our W. We'll see what the day brings and update as needed. More active weather appears to be likely early next week as a potent Spring Storm complex with a very deep Western trough develops over the coming weekend. It does appear we are heading toward a more active period with changeable weather. Stay Tuned!

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 AM CDT WED APR 03 2013

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE HAS SETTLED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AT LEAST A SHALLOW COOL/COLD AND STABLE
SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS HAS ADVANCED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST...AS WELL AS MUCH OF TEXAS...WITH THE GENERAL
EXCEPTION OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN. THE FRONT
APPEARS LIKELY TO ADVANCE ACROSS THIS AREA LATER TODAY...BUT THE
EXPANSIVE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL OCCUR AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE MIDDLE AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND THE SOUTHERN
STREAM CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

ONE SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH WITHIN THIS LATTER REGIME IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WEAK FRONTAL WAVE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS
IMPULSE...HOWEVER...HAS BEEN PRECEDED BY ONE OR TWO WEAKER IMPULSES
WHICH HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO EXTENSIVE VIGOROUS CONVECTION NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BROADER SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING IN RESPONSE TO
FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE DIGGING CLOSED LOW/TROUGH. THIS IS
OCCURRING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...AND ABOVE THE COLD FRONT...ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU. ADDITIONAL WEAKER STORMS PERSIST WITHIN A LINGERING ZONE
OF STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT...ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER
COLD INTRUSION ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF COAST/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ABOVE THE
SHALLOW STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO MIDDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOADED GUN TYPE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES /ELEVATED AND SURFACE BASED/ SUPPORTIVE OF
HAIL POTENTIAL IN STRONGER STORMS NOW APPEAR GENERALLY CONFINED TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE LACK
OF A MORE OBVIOUS LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND PRECLUDE SLIGHT RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT...COUPLED WITH WEAKENING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION...COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
BROWNSVILLE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...LINGERING BOUNDARY
LAYER CAPE MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A SUPERCELL IN THE CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...
LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE BEING MAINTAINED...MAINLY FOR POTENTIAL
OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE LATER TONIGHT.

..KERR/LEITMAN.. 04/03/2013

[jasons2k]

Wow - I had 2.67" of rain here - the most in a long time. I can't remember the last time it just poured rain that long.

[Portastorm]

Picked up 3.05 inches of rain in the last 24 hours in southwest Austin/Travis County. I certainly can't remember when we've seen so much rain in a 24-hour period. Been a while for sure.

The news gets even better. The Hill Country also recorded 2-3 inch totals and we need that for replenishing the Edwards Aquifer as well as the Highland Lakes chain. Hope we see lots more in the next few weeks,

One interesting anecdote from yesterday's storms here: a trained spotter recorded a 77 mph wind gust just a few miles from my house. I don't have a wind gauge but I knew the way the winds were gusting that it had to easily be more than 40-45 mph per what the NWS said to expect. Sure enough, this morning as I drove to work I saw a lot of limbs in the neighborhood down.

[cureduchenne]

Most of the state has seen rain and are happy. However, Jackson county is not one of those places! Is there a cap still in place over this area, Jackson/Victoria counties? We have missed all the rain and desperately need it for the crops. Any input as to why this area is missing the rain it is much appreciated and if it looks like we could get some anytime soon.

[srainhoutx]

The Storm Prediction Center issues Slight Risk for Severe Storms for portions of S Central Texas. Large hail we be the primary threat.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT WED APR 03 2013

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF S CNTRL TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THU...WITH HIGH PLNS TROUGH CONTINUING ESE INTO OK WHILE A SERIES OF
FASTER-MOVING...SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND CROSS S TX/THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. CONFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN COOL SFC HIGH OVER THE MS AND OH
VLYS...AND RETARD NWD ADVANCE OF W-E WARM FRONT NOW OVER THE NRN
GULF/N CNTRL FL. THE WARM FRONT...A COLD FRONT OVER DEEP S TX...AND
THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES MODULATING
TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD.

...CNTRL/S TX THIS AFTN/EVE...
SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT LOBE OF ASCENT ROUNDING BASE OF HI
PLNS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ESE ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND E TX THROUGH
THE DAY. LARGE RAOB DATA-VOID MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE
DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE VORT. AMPLE CLOUD
LAYER SHEAR WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY EXIST FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
SIZABLE EML WILL REMAIN PRESENT ACROSS AT LEAST THE SRN THIRD OF
TX...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL IN ANY LONGER-LIVED
STORMS. THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST FROM THE SERN PART OF THE
HILL COUNTRY E TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX CSTL PLN...AND MAY CONSIST OF
MULTIPLE SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS.

...DEEP S TX THROUGH AFTN...
COLD FRONT MARKING LEADING EDGE OF THE POLAR AIR MASS DOMINATING THE
CNTRL/ERN U.S. MOVED INTO DEEP S TX EARLY TODAY. A SMALL CLUSTER OF
TSTMS FORMED ALONG THAT BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS MORNING...NEAR WHERE
IT INTERSECTED THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE MEXICO. THE STORMS HAVE
REMAINED STRONG TO SVR JUST W OF THE LWR RIO GRANDE OF DEEP S
TX...LIKELY SUPPORTED BY MODEST BUT MOIST NELY LOW-LVL FLOW IN THE
PRESENCE OF 40 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR AND DEEP EML. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE
THAT CROSSED TX YESTERDAY APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED WELL E INTO THE
NRN CNTRL GULF...CONTINUED ESE MOTION OF HI PLNS TROUGH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH EXISTING WIND/THERMODYNAMIC SETUP SUGGESTS THAT
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AFTERNOON.
ASSUMING THAT FRONTAL UPLIFT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME EML
CAP...NOT A GUARANTEED OVER THE LWR TERRAIN NE OF THE RIVER...A
CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR THE STORMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP ESE ALONG
THE LWR REACHES OF THE RIO GRANDE.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF CST LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY THU...
A SFC WAVE APPEARS TO BE FORMING ATTM ALONG WARM/STNRY FRONT OVER
THE N CNTRL GULF IN RESPONSE TO LEAD SRN STREAM UPR IMPULSE. THIS
WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION/STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EVAPORATIVE COOLING ON N SIDE OF BOUNDARY AND
PRESSURE RISES OVER THE ERN STATES SHOULD KEEP MARITIME AIR OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEREBY LESSENING ANY ASSOCIATED SVR RISK. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...NRN FRINGE OF WARM SECTOR MAY APPROACH/REACH PARTS
OF THE WRN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA...BUT LIMITED BUOYANCY SHOULD KEEP ANY
SVR RISK /LOCALLY DMGG WIND OR AN ISOLD TORNADO/ LOW.

...N CNTRL FL THIS AFTN...
A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY FORM THIS AFTN NEAR WARM FRONT OVER
THE N CNTRL PART OF THE FL PENINSULA. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
MODEST...GIVEN WIND PROFILES WITH APPRECIABLE LOW-LVL VEERING AND
40-50 KT WLY DEEP SHEAR...SETUP MAY YIELD A ONE OR TWO STORMS WITH
STRONG WINDS...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO.

..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 04/03/2013

[David Paul]

From the looks of that line of storms near San Antonio now, I'd say you have a 50/50 chance of getting some rain in Jackson/Victoria counties later this afternoon. Good luck, I know you farmers need the rain down there.

[unome]

this is the 24-hr gauge-adjusted QPE from NMQ's site (thru 12 UTC) - tried to get the whole state in the pic, so it's not a close-up view - you can view other options here: http://nmq.ou.edu/

[djjordan]

It was like a strobe light for an hour at my house last night. The rain was falling as heavy as I've seen it since Ike and the trees and lawn were very happy to see it. No hail at my place but it was a close call. When I saw the hail core intensifying on radar near Needville I told my wife we better put our vehicles in the garage just in case. Prayers for our weather forum peeps in Hitchcock and Santa Fe .... that was a wild night last night for sure.

[tireman4]

Yeah, hail damage at my parent's house in Santa Fe. My sister had the smarts to pull both vehicles in the garage, so no damage there....

[Andrew]

Any chance of getting the Aggies to launch a trial balloon?

...CNTRL/S TX THIS AFTN/EVE...
SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT LOBE OF ASCENT ROUNDING BASE OF HI
PLNS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ESE ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND E TX THROUGH
THE DAY. LARGE RAOB DATA-VOID MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE
DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE VORT. AMPLE CLOUD
LAYER SHEAR WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY EXIST FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
SIZABLE EML WILL REMAIN PRESENT ACROSS AT LEAST THE SRN THIRD OF
TX...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL IN ANY LONGER-LIVED
STORMS. THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST FROM THE SERN PART OF THE
HILL COUNTRY E TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX CSTL PLN...AND MAY CONSIST OF
MULTIPLE SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS.

I think right now we aren't going to launch one but if things look severe there may be a possible launch later. I doubt it though. I think they are really looking to next week.

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff:

Active night across the region.

Severe:

15 WSW Eagle Lake, Colorado: 1.75 inch hail

Wharton, Wharton: 1.0 in hail in downtown Wharton

3 E Wharton, Wharton: 1.50 inch hail

Needville, Fort Bend: 1.75 inch hail

4 SSE Boling, Wharton: 1.75 inch hail

Manvel, Brazoria: Quarter size hail along Hwy 6 between Manvel and Fresno

Hitchcock, Galveston: ***3.50 inch hail*** 15-20 minutes of softball to baseball size hail with extreme hail damage on the west and central parts of the city. Numerous windows broken in many homes, significant damage to Midway church, fire station, 2 mobile home parks, and traffic signals. 7 out of 11 police cars with windows and windshieds shattered

Santa Fe, Galveston: Golf ball to tennis ball size hail across the city. 3.17 inches of rainfall also

Aldine, Harris: tree down from strong winds

The Woodlands, Montgomery: lightning strike to apartment complex resulting in extensive damage.

Rainfall:

Smithville: 5.03
LaGrange: 3.10

CoCoRaHS Reports:

9 E Smithville: 6.30
0.3 WSW Santa Fe: 2.74
4.8 WNW Huntsville: 2.92
Hallettsville: 2.64
1.9 NNE Sealy: 2.33
4.7 E LaGrange: 2.58
Sugar Land: 1.66
Bacliff: 1.59
Webster: 2.08
West University Place: 2.03
13.5 SE Hallettsville: 2.98
4 N Montgomery: 1.92
Livingston: 4.15
10 W Livingston: 3.65
11.5 WSW Huntsville: 2.40
3.1 NE Wharton: 2.50
1.4 ESE Wharton: 1.43
6.0 SE Katy: 2.03
.6 NNE Schulenburg: 4.27
1.4 W Dickinson: 2.25
2.5 NE Friendswood: 2.20
1.4 W The Woodlands: 2.18
8.4 W Livingston: 3.39
2.6 SSW Livingston: 3.69

Out of 132 gage stations that collect rainfall in Harris County, 66 recorded equal to or greater than 1.0 inch of rainfall in 15 minutes.

Wharton Hail:

04032013 Jeff image009.jpg (28.12 KiB) Viewed 4897 times

Galveston County Hail Images:

04032013 Jeff image010.jpg (12.27 KiB) Viewed 4897 times

04032013 Jeff image011.jpg (28.93 KiB) Viewed 4897 times

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