July - Hot & Muggy To End The Month

[Katdaddy]

Completed 12.2 miles before the tropical thunderstorms chased me back home. Lots of thunder ongoing from tropical thunderstorm S of her in Santa Fe and Alvin.

[TexasBreeze]

So far a 'donut hole' with rain surrounding nw Harris county. Maybe later outflows will combine over the nw county area for more cooling lawn happy rains!

[Texas Pirate]

3.5 inches of rain so far this week at my home near bay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jasons2k]

In a donut hole here, been thundering all around me for hours, but mostly just sprinkles with a couple of showers. My last chance was that line moving from the south, but it fizzled before it could get up here. They really got it just west of here earlier, though.

[SusieinLP]

Rained hard at Deer Park H.S resulting in a rain delay at my nephew's tennis tourney. Drive back to my house about 8 minutes away and not even a puddle.

[C2G]

Nice rains along the coast and up here in Friendswood this morning.

.

[txflagwaver]

Woke up to rain...must have been raining a while...patio has standing water and street was completely covered. A little break now...would not mind if it rained all day

[Katdaddy]

Picked up .78" this morning with lots of thunder and lightening. More storms moving up the coast affecting Galveston and Brazoria Counties.

[mckinne63]

Nothing here in Stafford this morning. It clouds up, than we see the sun, than it clouds up, wind picks up, than no pretty droplets of water. Looking at the radar it seems like it is all around us, just missing my lawn. We did get a bit late yesterday afternoon, not much though.

[texoz]

Quite a line of storms in the Gulf. Looks mostly stationary, though?

[Katdaddy]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
241 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

TXZ195>198-211-212-212030-
BURLESON TX-BRAZOS TX-AUSTIN TX-WALLER TX-WASHINGTON TX-GRIMES TX-
241 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 239 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRENHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRENHAM AND HEMPSTEAD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

[Ptarmigan]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 212036
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
336 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND
WATERS HAVE STARTED TO COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALSO BEEN HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER IN
THIS AREA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER INLAND TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO
GO UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH COLLEGE STATION IN THE LOWER 90S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA WILL ALSO LIKELY START TO DIE DOWN AFTER THE SUN
SETS.

TOMORROW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND WITH LOWER PWAT AIR MOVING IN OVERHEAD.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. BY TUESDAY FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW INCREASING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND LOWER PWAT VALUES (~1.35").
850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 23C THURSDAY SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 100F. THE AREA MIGHT ALSO BE A TAD SLOW
HEATING UP GIVEN THE RAIN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RAIN WILL
ALSO KEEP THE HUMIDITY UP THOUGH. EITHER WAY IT WILL FEEL HOT
OUTSIDE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

THIS WEEKEND MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. BOTH BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREAS BUT THE
ECMWF ALSO BRINGS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/ TEXAS
BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND PUSHES IT
FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO NO LONGER BRING
THE BOUNDARY INTO OUR CWA THIS WEEKEND. WILL WAIT FOR MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. 23

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TAPERING OFF AS A DRIER
AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 96 77 97 76 / 20 20 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 94 77 96 77 / 10 30 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 91 82 93 81 / 20 20 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Could rain return again? We shall see.

[wxman57]

Measured a whole 0.11" from Thursday through today. About 23.3" for the year. That's 6" more than IAH, but about 4" below normal. The storms have been missing my neighborhood for the past few weeks. Only 0.5" last week.

[jojotheidiotclown]

It has rained a lot here in Friendswood. Grass looks good, but not looking forward the dang mosquitos.

I miss the sun and look forward to the normal summer temps returning.

[srainhoutx]

One more day of scattered storms before a brief few days of hot and muggy weather returns with a heat index near or a little above 100F returns. The guidance is suggesting a deep trough will begin to develop across the Eastern half of the US bringing abundant moisture to Kansas and the mid Mississippi Valley of E into the Mid Atlantic and SE. The fly in the ointment will be a rather strong mid/upper level disturbance that drops SE from Canada later this week as it rides around the upper ridge well to our W across the Pacific NW and may allow for yet another back door frontal boundary to sag SW into the Eastern half of Texas and Louisiana next weekend. One thing is very certain. We are not seeing a repeat pattern that plagued our Region the past two summers as an Upper Ridge remained present the entire summer season. Also of note, there are strong indications that the quiet tropics are about to awaken so as a reminder, be sure to check our Hurricane Central area for any tropical troubles that may be brewing across the Atlantic and Caribbean.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

After several days of below normal temperatures and afternoon showers and thunderstorms high pressure will be building over the area.

One last day of at least a chance of showers and thunderstorms before high pressure builds over the area. Much different looking radar sweeps this morning compared to yesterday with little to no activity over the Gulf waters. Air mass is already starting to dry out and this is clearly evident by looking at the radar this morning. Heating this morning should promote a decent seabreeze circulation by mid-day and with just enough moisture left in the column, we may see an isolated to scattered storm fire up along the seabreeze late this morning into the afternoon hours.

Rest of the forecast will be one of building high pressure and heat. Upper air pattern will amplify over the next few days with ridging building across the western US into the central plains and a deep eastern US trough developing. Forecast heights rise over the area today and peak on Thursday-Friday. 850mb warming would normally support highs in the 100’s, but recent rainfall has wetted the top layer of soil and some of the solar energy will go into evaporating that moisture instead of heating the air. The result will likely be several days of 95-100 degree weather instead of several days of 98-104 degree weather. Could see some 100’s by Wednesday around the College Station area where the drought conditions remain the worst and rainfall this past week was the lowest. Combined ground moisture and heat will make it uncomfortable outside and while heat index values may reach the 108 mark during the late morning or early afternoon hours, widespread 108 values are not expected resulting in no heat advisory issuance.

Looking toward the weekend, the same upper air pattern remains locked in place, but the ridge shifts a little toward the west allowing strong NNW flow to develop over eastern TX. Models are inconsistent on the idea of bringing a frontal boundary into the region from the north on Saturday. July frontal passages would be rare, but the upper air pattern would support at least some sort of boundary getting close to our area. Not sure the ridge to our NW will give enough ground to lessen the subsidence for thunderstorms along the boundary Saturday and Sunday.

Tropics are quite this morning.

[jasons2k]

I got another .21" yesterday. Most of it missed me again but I guess I can't complain after seeing what some of you are getting (or not getting).

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro remains steadfast insisting that a frontal boundary will drop SE with a short wave/upper air disturbance increasing rain chances on Sunday. We will see.

[tireman4]

As a runner, I am so hoping this front ( boundary) comes down. Any relief is greatly appreciated.

[jasons2k]

Aside from this weekend's possible break, How long will this hot/dry/ridge pattern last? Through next week? Longer?