August - Warm and Dry Weather Returns To End The Month

[Andrew]

Would like to hear thoughts on the last 6 summers in C. Texas.

Since records have been kept (150+ years), the average number of 100 degrees days is 12 per summer. We're on track to average 50 days of 100 degrees or hotter over this 6 year period, 2008-2013.

Thankfully, we've had some rain this spring & summer, but I'm getting a little concerned that this heat isn't a short term pattern.

Dry grounds and heat go hand in hand....

Also another thing that a lot of people don't always thing about is the mixed layer. This was a big thing last summer and the one before that where winds would be stronger than normal drying the ground even more. Usually the layer extends to around the 850mb level (Depending on the time of year) but with some of the more severe droughts this level has been extended higher (where there are stronger winds) resulting in stronger winds mixing to the surface causing even drier grounds and increasing heights. It is truly remarkable how much of a positive feedback a drought can be.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning from the Florida Keys. Changes are brewing for that hot and dry weather that has plagued Texas this week and increasing rain chances with a surge of deep tropical moisture (PW’s above the 2 inch range) moving inland over the weekend. A TUTT is currently traversing the Florida Straights S of the Keys Island chain that brought gusty tropical squalls overnight with winds in the 35 knot+ range. There is a cold pocket aloft with this feature and unsettled continues will shift W into the Central Gulf early next week.

There continues to be strong indications that some form of tropical mischief may develop later next week in the NW Caribbean near the Yucatan and enter the Gulf of Mexico by next weekend. The NCEP Ensemble TC Genesis Probabilities have been very bullish on development this week across the Western half of the Caribbean Sea and are now increasing for the NW Caribbean. The local `chatter` down here is that potential tropical troubles may develop late next week as this potential feature moves into the Gulf. Several note worthy items are a favorable MJO pulse and a Kelvin Wave will be moving W bound into the Western Atlantic Basin during that time frame. While it is way too soon to know what will actually happen in regards to development, the upper air pattern appears to become a bit better as an anticyclonic ridge develops over the Gulf allowing for ventilation aloft and pressures lower at the surface. The upper ridge that has brought the hot and dry conditions appears to loosen its grip on our Region and shifts W. Time will tell if anything becomes of this pattern, but it serves as a reminder that we are getting into that mid August time frame and peak tropical season is rapidly approaching.

[cperk]

srainhoutx a tropical system unfortunately is what we may need too break our drought.

[Texas Pirate]

EXTREME DROUGHT EXPANDS OVER SE TX:

FROM NWS

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=pns_2013 ... _expanding

[srainhoutx]

Good morning from the Lower Keys. The NHC has outlined an area along a tropical wave nearing Tampico with a 10% chance of developing before moving inland into the Mexico Gulf Coast. A TUTT is currently located across the Central/Southern Gulf of Mexico moving W bound and is a bit more potent and brought a squally day to the Keys Island chain yesterday and last night. A wave axis is associated with this feature as well and has a cold pocket aloft that has created some enhancement of storms. The Heat Advisory has been dropped for Coastal Texas as a surge of deep tropical moisture moves inland and the upper ridge is lifting out. Fingers crossed that the Coastal Counties get a break and see some scattered showers and storms the next couple of days to provide a bit of relief from the hot and dry conditions across the area.

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There continues to be indications that a fairly deep trough will drop S across the eastern half of the US and the upper ridge will stay to our W. A NW flow aloft may offer additional showers and storms to develop and drop SE later in the afternoon and evening for the next several days. Attention will then turn to the tropics as the computer models are suggesting the possibility of a weak tropical low developing in the SW Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche by late next week.

[Texas Pirate]

HAPPY SATURDAY MORNING EVERYONE

WE GOT RAIN BY THE BAY!

[Katdaddy]

We got .20" in NW Galveston County! A nice tropical deluge for a few minutes. The Harris County rain gauges show up to 2.84" near Pasadena.

[txflagwaver]

Was hopeful this am when the thunder rolled and I heard rain tapping on the roof...

5 minutes later it was gone...

Not even enough to wet the driveway...

[jasons2k]

I got an even 1.00" today and very grateful!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z operational GFS suggests a 1008mb surface low develops in the SW Gulf of Mexico just off the Yucatan Peninsula generally heading N to NW. The major concern will be just how much wind shear will develop and how far S the Eastern trough/back door 'cool' front sags S and exactly where the weakness develops along the Northern Gulf Coast.

[mckinne63]

Got some rain yesterday, not sure how much. A few sprinkles this morning, but nothing of note yet. Keeping my fingers crossed.

[rnmm]

I totally agree with you Ed. I hate the thought of anyone flooding, but the rain would be so beneficial!!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian develops a strong tropical storm/weak Hurricane heading toward S Texas in about 180 hours. That operational computer model suggests the trough may not be too quick to drop S and 'catch' the tropical disturbance as it moves into the SW Gulf late next week. One issue we will need to monitor is just how deep the Eastern trough develops and if any frontal boundary does in fact make it as far S as some of the models suggest. It is mid August after all and actually getting a frontal boundary as far S along the Northern Gulf Coast may be a bit over estimated, IMO. We will see.

[texoz]

I totally agree with you Ed. I hate the thought of anyone flooding, but the rain would be so beneficial!!

The central Texas lakes would also like their share. Travis is at 623ft. The record low from 1951 is 618ft.

[rnmm]

I totally agree with you Ed. I hate the thought of anyone flooding, but the rain would be so beneficial!!

The central Texas lakes would also like their share. Travis is at 623ft. The record low from 1951 is 618ft.

That is so sad to hear!!

We need rain so bad but not in the form of a hurricane.

[jeff]

I totally agree with you Ed. I hate the thought of anyone flooding, but the rain would be so beneficial!!

The central Texas lakes would also like their share. Travis is at 623ft. The record low from 1951 is 618ft.

That is so sad to hear!!

We need rain so bad but not in the form of a hurricane.

A tropical system is the only weather feature capable of bringing enough moisture and lift this time of year to even come close to re-filling Travis and even that is a stretch.

[rnmm]

We need rain so bad but not in the form of a hurricane.[/quote]

A tropical system is the only weather feature capable of bringing enough moisture and lift this time of year to even come close to re-filling Travis and even that is a stretch.[/quote]


WOW! That is horrible to imagine

[SusieinLP]

No rain today here but not too far from me got a good soaking. Same thing yesterday but I did get at least a few sprinkles. I'd rather pull around a sprinkler than deal with a hurricane. A nice rainy depression or low end TS would be nice....just no Allison....

[Texas Pirate]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[jasons2k]

Added another .61" today. Lawns and trees are happy.