Gabrielle Regenerates in Tropical Storm: South of Bermuda

[Katdaddy]

Invest 97L has been designated to the E of the Windwards. This is something to watch as it is positioned to enter the Caribbean Sea.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z UKMet suggest a developing disturbance S of Puerto Rico in 72 hours. It is also noteworthy the Euro Ensembles are becoming rather bullish on developing 97L as it travels W across the Caribbean. One observations with a disturbance tracking W is that the slower it actually develops, the better chance that it may end up in the Western/North Western Caribbean later next week.

[srainhoutx]

The NOAA G-IV has completed its training mission and make numerous high altitude observations and did launch many dropsonde in the vicinity of 97L.

[srainhoutx]

While the Global and ensemble guidance are somewhat mixed on the future of 97L, it does appear conditions will become a bit more favorable as this disturbance continues its westward motion at around 10-15 mph. The latest dynamic and operational tracks suggest a slow progression W and will bring the currently elongated 1008 mb surface low S of Hispaniola and approach the southern coast of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands around Thursday. MIMIC does show the elongated nature of the broad low pressure system as the monsoonal gyre translates W.



As we near the Wednesday/Thursday time frame conditions appear a bit more favorable for possible development over the NW Caribbean Sea as wind shear relaxes and the East Coast trough lifts out with a retreating surface boundary and the Atlantic Ridge begins to build back W. The 01092013 03Z 3-7 surface analysis suggests a weakness develops across the Gulf Coast as the Central US Ridge shifts W and the Atlantic Ridge builds over Florida. Another interesting note is the lack of forward progression of an easterly wave currently situated across the NW Caribbean. The dynamical intensity guidance suggest a CAT 2 Hurricane is possible as 97L develops S of Cuba while the Operational and Hurricane intensity guidance remain somewhat lack luster. As we have seen with these monsoonal trough/gyre systems, development is usually slow. The NHC has raised the percentage to a Medium category in about 5 days as this disturbance nears the NW Caribbean. Should the surface low begin to contract or tighten up during the mid part of the coming work week, interests across the Gulf of Mexico may need to monitor this system a bit more closely as a stronger system could gain a bit more latitude and develop in a Region that remains rather conducive for tropical development.

[srainhoutx]

RECON Tasking for 97L has been issued to include a low level flight as well as another Global Hawk mission over the Caribbean Sea:

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 01 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-092

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:  POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST OF
       CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SYSTEM NEAR 15.0N 72.0W FOR 03/1800Z.
    3. REMARK:  THE NASA 871 GLOBAL HAWK MAY FLY A 24-HOUR RESEARCH
                MISSION OVER THE CARIBBEAN SYSTEM...TAKING OFF AT
                03/1100Z.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE CONDUCIVE...
BUT PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Katdaddy]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE CONDUCIVE...
BUT PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

[srainhoutx]

Hour 72 Surface Analysis for the Caribbean Sea:

[srainhoutx]

The updated 1830Z surface maps for days 3-7 suggest that 97L or a possible Gabrielle will pass S of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands as it enters the NW Caribbean Sea.

[jeff]

Not very organized just yet...with the LLC way out west of the "deep convection" Think it will struggle to get through the E Caribbean with any significant development...may see much better potential in the western Caribbean Sea toward the middle to end of the week. Steering pattern will be driven by incoming storm system in the PAC NW which amplifies the downstream ridge over the C US and deepens a trough over the E US. 12Z GFS has a retro-grading "TUTT" feature over SE TX next week under the belly of the ridge to our NW. Not sure the GFS is going to get this right as such features this summer have failed to be as significant as the models have shown.

If it waits to develop then a threat to the Gulf is possible...and I think this possibility is slightly greater at the moment as systems tend not to organized much in the E Caribbean Sea. If it develops in the central Caribbean Sea then there could be a threat to FL or the SE US coast, but there would also be some land interaction.

[cperk]

Thanks jeff your insight into these systems are appreciated.

[Texas Pirate]

What's up with the BOC?
Wheres the thread?
Thanks

[TexasBreeze]

This system is now TD #7. Storm warnings put in effect for Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic.

www.nhc.noaa.gov

[Texas Pirate]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2013

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORMWARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANOTO CABO FRANCES VIEJO AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SANTO DOMINGOTO CABO ENGANO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO CABO ENGANO

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Katdaddy]

ATCF now has 07L.GABRIELLE. TD 7 upgrade to TS Gabrielle coming soon. Lots of flooding rains for Puerto Rico the next 24 hours.

[Katdaddy]

ULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

...GABRIELLE REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 65.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON BERMUDA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST.
GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GABRIELLE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NEAR BERMUDA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41049 LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH...57 KM/H
AND A GUST TO 40 MPH...65 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA. IN ADDITION...ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA BY THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 6
INCHES POSSIBLE.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.