September: Weekend Rain Chances. 1-2 Inches Possible C/N TX

[srainhoutx]

18Z GFS wind (10 meter) and mean sea level pressure with total accumulated precipitation through 180 hours. Worrisome to see a tropical system sit and spin just inland for about 18-24 hours before beginning to lift ENE.

[Ptarmigan]

18Z GFS wind (10 meter) and mean sea level pressure with total accumulated precipitation through 180 hours. Worrisome to see a tropical system sit and spin just inland for about 18-24 hours before beginning to lift ENE.

If I am reading the rainfall total forecast, some areas in Texas could see up to 24 inches.

[Rip76]

This place should be hoppin'.
Maybe the Texans game tired everyone out.

[rnmm]

I am lurking I just don't want to jinx anything by asking stupid questions or hoping too much!!

[srainhoutx]

I think everyone is just patiently waiting to see what happens after 93L crosses the Yucatan. That is when any real development will begin in earnest. Right now all we really know is there is a lot of potential, but uncertainty as well. By Thursday I suspect we will have a lot more information and a bit better idea how this system will actually unfold. Tomorrow is another day. I believe some of the night crew and of course us early birds will have updates in the morning.

[Rip76]

I just couldn't log in all day

So as of this moment, is the whole system moving West?
Or a bit WNW?

[srainhoutx]

I just couldn't log in all day

So as of this moment, is the whole system moving West?
Or a bit WNW?

Hopefully that log in issue will be totally resolved by tomorrow. W to WNW is the official motion right now across the Yucatan.

[Portastorm]

Rip, keep in mind that what is supposed to happen is that the tropical wave moving westbound across the Yucatan will combine with existing lower pressures/low pressure trough in the SW Gulf/BOC to help form a potential tropical system. Those two pieces have to come together first.

[SusieinLP]

I'll believe itvwhen I see it....anytime we get these types of predictions of heavy rains I get like 3 drops.....

[Texas Pirate]

David Paul says models are starting to be in agreement there will be rain for Texas -
I hope I didn't jinx us...

[Texas Pirate]

Dang...I'm going on vacation - come hell or high water.

[Portastorm]

The overnight model trend is disappointing as the strength of the ridging above developing 93L keeps it south of us and well into Mexico. *Some* moisture gets into south Texas but nothing like what we saw with some of the other model depictions yesterday.

I wouldn't be surprised by more changes though in the next day or two via the models. As our esteemed srainhoutx says "we shall see."

[djmike]

....well, I think we have been jinxed. It showed AND sounded too good to be true for us Texans. Yesterdays model runs showed the perfect scenario for Texas.

[ticka1]

Praying for a cold front now since the models backed off 93L giving Texas and SE Texas the rain they need.

[Rip76]

Just a thought but this may not even make it to the BOC on this path, opinions?

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Tropical wave over the extreme western Caribbean Sea continues to become better organized this morning as it nears the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula.

Early day visible satellite images show what appears to be a broad low level circulation very near the SE coast of the Yucatan peninsula and this is support by surface data across the western Caribbean Sea and Mexico/Belize. Deep convection has erupted near or on the southwest side of this broad circulation this morning near the coastline. This tropical wave and broad area of low pressure is moving toward the WNW at 5-10mph and will be moving inland today over the Yucatan. No additional development of this system is expected while over land.

This broad low will then emerge into the Bay of Campeche at some point on Thursday where both oceanic conditions and upper level conditions look favorable for development. There continues to be strong model support for tropical cyclone formation and the National Hurricane Center gives the system a 70% chance of development over the next 5 days and 40% in the next 48 hours.

Global forecast models have come into some better agreement on the track of the system, but continue to differ between model runs which creates a lower confidence forecast. Latest GFS which had for several runs brought the system NNW out of the Bay of Campeche and toward the lower TX coast is now falling in closer line with a more suppressed track toward the Mexican coast in better agreement with the EURO, CMC, UKMET, and the hurricane models…GFDL and HWRF. While this appears to be an increased consensus in the track field, there are things expected to be going on with the upper air pattern over TX which could alter this current track reasoning.

An incoming trough into the Pacific NW will help to kick out a trough currently over the western US toward the central plains by late this weekend which in turn allows a breaking down of the ridging over TX and the formation of a weakness in the height field. The blocking “protecting” high that has kept all tropical systems south of the US Gulf coast this summer shifts eastward toward the MS Valley and SE US opening a northward pathway for a western Gulf of Mexico system to come northward. The big question is does the southern Gulf system make landfall in MX prior to the ridge breaking down or is it still over the water. Given that there is not a well-defined circulation of circulation at the moment it is hard to put much stock in the model solutions on both track and intensity.

Impacts:

It is too soon to tell what impacts if any this potentially large tropical system will have on the state of TX. The current guidance tracks would suggest only an increase in rain bands for extreme south Texas while any possible NW track would greatly increase rainfall, wind, seas, and tides along the TX coast.

Tides are already running about .5 of a foot above predicted levels this morning and this is due to the long fetch E winds from FL to TX across the northern Gulf. This fetch will be maintained and likely intensify toward the end of the week as pressures lower in the southern Gulf and high pressure builds into the SE US increasing the pressure gradient. The increase wind force will build Gulf of Mexico swells to near 6-8 ft by this weekend and possibly up to 10 ft by Sunday evening. These big swells will deliver more water to the coast and begin to result in wave run-up. Lunar tides will be increasing in height toward the weekend with high tides reaching nearly 1.25 feet above MSL. This combined with the wave setup along the Gulf beaches and ET surge modeling showing up to .5 of a foot of developing storm surge suggest total water level rises upwards of 1-2 feet above MSL by the weekend. These levels would not be expected to cause any significant issues, but water and wave action could reach dunes at the times of high tide resulting in some erosion and possibly some minor overwash. Current guidance does not suggest we will reach our coastal warning levels of around 4.0-4.5 feet.

[Rip76]

[Portastorm]

The current movement of 93L and the latest computer model developments certainly are depressing ... what's that saying about "if we didn't have bad luck we'd have no luck at all?!" But I'm still not convinced the final chapter has been written here on 93L.

[Kludge]

I'm not holding out much hope that this circulation will come ashore near Texas, but I can't imagine (or maybe just don't want to imagine) that all of it's accompanying moisture will simply move into Mexico and go poof. If the potential weakness that develops over Texas next week is too late to bring the storm towards us, I would hope that it at least pulls the post landfall rains up this way.

[Texas Pirate]

I WANT TO SCREAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

thank you.