OCTOBER: Halloween Storm: Severe Storms/Flash Flood Threat?

[djjordan]

Nothing too big going on in the state of Texas right now. Looking like some beneficial soaking rains are continuing to fall in a large swath of Central to NE Texas extending SW into Mexico. Nothing to much out of hand at present as of 2:45AM.

[snowman65]

"lots of rain maybe training effect, ice age number 5 coming"


Bring on the ice age!!...I will get me a pet wooly mammoth....

[djmike]

What kind of temps are we looking at? I keep seeing people bring up "Ice Age" and Blue Northern", but I dont see anything of what we are expecting or that is possible.

[cristina99]

oooh.....it's about time for cooler weather (dare I say even cold) to start coming our way. I am over this hot weather. Is it too early to start speculating on whether we will have a winter or not? Just kidding.....a little.

[srainhoutx]

How about a real true 'Blue Norther' just in time for Halloween? That's a mighty strong chunk of cold Canadian air dropping S into the Plains...

[sambucol]

How about a real true 'Blue Norther' just in time for Halloween? That's a mighty strong chunk of cold Canadian air dropping S into the Plains...

What kind of temps are possible here, Srainhoutx?

[Paul Robison]

Folks, we will be in serious trouble on Friday. Read:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE U.S.
THOUGH THE PERIOD...AS A LARGE/EWD-MOVING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND SEWD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL
AIR SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SERN U.S. -- LEAVING
SEASONABLY COLD CONTINENTAL AIR TO COVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE COUNTRY
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL AND S TX VICINITY...
SOME RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE INTO TX AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF TX.
ALONG WITH MODEST SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO EVOLVE TO THE N OF THE ANAFRONTAL-TYPE BOUNDARY.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES SSEWD WITH TIME AND THE LAGGING UPPER SYSTEM
BEGINS SHIFTING INTO THE SRN PLAINS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP -- MOST LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WHILE SHEAR -- AIDED BY 40-PLUS KT
MID-LEVEL WSWLYS -- WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS...MODEST INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
PRIMARILY ELEVATED/POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE RISK. STILL...WILL MAINTAIN LOW /5%/ SEVERE RISK FOR
MARGINAL HAIL...AS WELL AS A WIND GUST OR TWO WITH ANY STORM WHICH
CAN BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR OR S OF THE ADVANCING FRONT.



I think God hates Houston, folks!

[David Paul]

I see the GFS and Canadian are suggesting that 'Blue Norther' may blow in just in time for Halloween. Question... my grandfather used to describe a blue norther (he grew up in Nebraska) as the tinted blue dark clouds rolling in with a strong winter storm. I always thought (growing up in Houston of course) that it was the clear blue sky and cold after a cold front rolled through. Which is it...? Cheers all.

[srainhoutx]

I see the GFS and Canadian are suggesting that 'Blue Norther' may blow in just in time for Halloween. Question... my grandfather used to describe a blue norther (he grew up in Nebraska) as the tinted blue dark clouds rolling in with a strong winter storm. I always thought (growing up in Houston of course) that it was the clear blue sky and cold after a cold front rolled through. Which is it...? Cheers all.

As a 4th generation Texan this description is what my grandmother that was born in 1900 would tell me in my younger days...basically both are true...


https://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/onl ... cles/ybb01

[David Paul]

Great article srain... the 'blue black' cloud is exactly how my grandfather described it. He also told me about several close calls with tornadoes as a boy on the farm in Nebraska. Thanks for posting this and Cheers!

[Katdaddy]

Increasing clouds and rain chances this afternoon. Warm front along the coastal areas may lead to heavier rainfall this evening and overnight. Cold front should move off the coast early Saturday morning with slight thunderstorms chances. Skies should begin clearing by early afternoon Saturday with N winds and temps in the upper 70s. Upper 50s Saturday night and mostly sunny skies with mid 70s Sunday.

[srainhoutx]

SPC issues Slight Risk for severe storms for portion of the Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau for later today as a long wave trough and upper air disturbance that has brought snow to the higher elevations near Denver over night sweeps SE and another disturbance rides NE out of Mexico into Texas. The 06Z short range guidance is suggesting showers and storms will develop later tonight into early Saturday and increase rain/storm chances across Central and SE Texas in a very progressive fast moving pattern.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT FRI OCT 18 2013

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PARTS OF THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU...

...TX AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
AS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CO THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS TO
KS/OK BY THIS EVENING...AND REACH THE MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING.
AN ASSOCIATED REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL SURGE WILL MOVE SEWD FROM OK
TO CENTRAL TX BY EARLY TONIGHT...AND TO THE TX COAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE...WITH PW VALUES AOA 1 INCH AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60...BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU IN TX. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME
MORE PROBABLE NEAR OR AFTER 21Z AS SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS
REDUCES CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT COINCIDES WITH THE LOW-LEVEL LIFT
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.

MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG WITHIN THE MOISTURE
CORRIDOR BY 21Z...WHERE RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AND SPEED
INCREASES ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT.
THESE FACTORS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND
SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...WHEN THE RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
WILL BE GREATEST. THEREAFTER...THE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED PRIMARILY
TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH CONVECTION THAT ENDS UP BEING
SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT BY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
DIMINISHING BY 03-06Z IN CENTRAL TX. OTHERWISE...A FEW WEAKLY
ROTATING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TX COAST
TODAY...ALONG A WEAK SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD FROM NE MEXICO THIS
MORNING.

..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 10/18/2013

[srainhoutx]

NWS Dodge City, KS Office this morning shared via Facebook by NWS Amarillo. The weather is transitioning to colder.

[srainhoutx]

That 'Blue Norther' we have been discussing is still suggested by the GFS. It appears the Southern Rockies may see a significant snow storm extending into the front range and as far S as Albuquerque and strong storms sweeping across Texas as that front races S.

[tireman4]

Here is my wonder, will we (IAH) make it to 75? We are sitting at 69. Hummm.....

[Paul Robison]

What do the blue isotherms to the north of us mean, Ed? Will this "blue norther" be anything like the system that literally blasted the area with powerful cold north winds on Feb. 2, 2011?

[srainhoutx]

Paul, it way too soon to know what we may or may not see with that Polar front or even if it actually occurs at all. We are still well over a week+ away from that potential. Meanwhile it is a nasty stormy night with thunderstorms and heavy rain in NW Harris County.

[unome]

Meanwhile it is a nasty stormy night with thunderstorms and heavy rain in NW Harris County.

it sure is ! training raining ! but I'm not complaining

(took out old hotlinks)

[cisa]

It's been raining hard here in Porter for well over an hour. I don't know what it equates to in inches, but it's been pouring. Nice to enjoy from home, but I wouldn't have wanted to be out under the "Friday Night Lights". I've had more than my fair share of getting soaked in the stands. Such is a Fall Friday in Texas.

[Paul Robison]

Have these rain/storms caused damage anywhere in the city?