N. ATL Hurricane Season 2013 Discussions

[Rip76]

Decent look this morning.
Who knows.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

[srainhoutx]

One has to think the GFS is benefiting from the additional data from the Global Hawk mission across the Eastern Atlantic and that trend continues with the 12Z GFS that we saw last night with the 00Z suite of guidance.

[srainhoutx]

For the past several cycles, the operational on ensemble guidance have been rather insistent that the MDR (Main Development Region) W of 50 could become favorable for tropical cyclone genesis. That trend continues today as the ITCZ and associated tropical waves move along and S of 20 degrees N traversing W bound. It is also note worthy that the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) is decreasing over time and the Kelvin Wave that aided in allowing Fernand to develop in the Western Atlantic Basin is progressing E. Also the MJO does continue to suggest favorable conditions for tropical development as one of the strongest pulses we have seen since 1989 progresses E bound in the Tropical Atlantic. As peak season draws closers and attention turns to the start of school and dreams of cooler weather, it serves as a reminder that we are not done with tropical season just yet and we will monitor daily for any tropical troubles that may head our way.

The attachment 08272013 00Z Multi Model TC Genesis Probs genprob_4enscon_2013082700_altg_000_120.png is no longer available

[Ptarmigan]

Atlantic Hurricane Season: The Saharan Air Layer and Vertical Wind Shear
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/24hour ... ntrynum=64

What impact does Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and vertical wind shear have on hurricanes.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...


$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Rip76]

NHC Area of interest over the Yuc.
10%.

I assume this just crashes into Mexico like all the rest?

[Texas Pirate]

Please BOC blob ....send your bad self to Houston

[Rip76]

Of Course -


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

THE TROPICAL WAVE FORMERLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EAST PACIFIC WITH A 1009 MB CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16N102W.
REMNANT CONVECTION LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS S OF 22N W OF 93W.

[srainhoutx]

RECON has been tasked to fly the Bay of Campeche suspect area is need be. Also there is a lot of other tasking for 97L that includes a low level flight and the Global Hawk mission...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1040 AM EDT TUE 03 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-094

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
       A. 04/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
       C. 04/1700Z
       D. 16.8N 65.5W
       E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: 
       A. FIX MISSION AT 05/1800Z NEAR 19.5N 68.5W IF SYSTEM    
          DEVELOPS.
       B. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
          20.0N 94.5W AT 05/1730Z. 

    3. REMARKS: THE INVEST FOR THIS AREA TODAY AT 03/2100Z
       WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 03/1100Z.


    4. THE NASA 872 GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 24-HOUR RESEARCH
       MISSION OVER THIS SYSTEM
       A. AIRCRAFT: NA872
       B. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: DEPRESSION 97L-LEEWARD ISLANDS
       C. DEPARTURE WFF: 1500Z, 04 SEP
       D. MISSION DURATION: 24H 00M
       E. IP: 1900Z, 04 SEP; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
       F. EP:  1000Z, 4 SEPT; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
       G. ON-STATION DURATION:  15H 00M
       H. ETA WFF: 1500Z, 05 SEPT
       I. DROPSONDES TO BE DEPLOYED: 84
       J. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
       K. PATTERN: RACE TRACK ACROSS REGION OF CIRCULATION
          IN BOX BOUNDED BY 22.8N 67.5W, 17.0N 67.6W,
          14.8N 55.3W AND 22.8N 55.3W 
       L. COMMENT: NA871 LANDING WFF AT 1100Z, 4 SEP
       M. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY- NA872 LANDING 1500Z, 5 SEP

[Rip76]

Ed thanks...

I misread it as "pulling all the moisture into the Epac with it."

[srainhoutx]

For those looking for tropical development, keep a close eye on the Western Caribbean and the Gulf for the next week to 10 days. The Global ensembles are suggesting increased tropical development chances across the Western Atlantic Basin. We are already beginning to see pressure fall across this Region in response and increased convection is developing as seen with the designation of 99L this morning. In fact the operational GFS has been suggesting abundant deep tropical moisture will become entrenched across the NW Caribbean and Western Gulf of Mexico.

[Rip76]

So basically, this will just pull moisture away from us?

[srainhoutx]

RECON will fly the Gulf today and possibly tomorrow and some interesting movement of additional aircraft to St. Croix.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1120 AM EDT THU 05 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-096

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70      
       A. 06/1800Z          
       B. AFXXX 0307A GABRIELLE     
       C. 06/1615Z                
       D. 21.0N 70.0W             
       E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2100Z    
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT        

    2. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
       A. 06/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0208A CYCLONE
       C. 06/0900Z
       D. 21.5N 97.3W
       E. 06/1130Z TO 06/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    4. REMARKS:
       A. THE MISSIONS ON GABRIELLE FOR 05/1800Z, 06/0000Z
          AND 06/0600Z WERE CANCELED AT 05/1400Z BY NHC.
       B. NOAA WILL DEPLOY EITHER ONE OR 3 AIRCRAFT TO ST CROIX
          FRIDAY FOR RESEARCH MISSIONS THIS WEEKEND

[srainhoutx]

While there remains some day to day difference in the operational and ensemble guidance, the general pattern suggests lower pressures and generally disturbed weather will remain across the Western Caribbean Sea and the Western Gulf of Mexico. The upper ridge will build further E into the Tennessee Valley as an Eastern trough develops over the Great Lakes Region. A parade of tropical disturbances along the Mexico Pacific Coast supply ample deep tropical moisture into the Desert SW for the foreseeable future. One interesting note is the American and European ensembles remain steadfast in bringing easterly waves NW from the Western Caribbean and then into the Western Gulf. Convection continues to abound across both these areas and the ensembles continue to advertise that trend will continue during the next 10 to 15 days. The longer range ensembles are also suggesting a rather strong tropical disturbance will be near the Yucatan Peninsula during the mid September time frame. While it is too soon to know with any certainty where these disturbances will travel or develop, the general trend suggests a stormy pattern in the Tropical Western Atlantic Basin may well unfold before we enter the late September period.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z Multi Model TC Genesis Probabilities continue to suggest the SW Caribbean Sea does have a fairly high chance of developing a storm in the medium to long range. The operational GFS and European have been 'sniffing' that area for potential TC development and their ensembles do suggest lower pressure across the Western half of the Caribbean at that time. It is also noteworthy that an upper ridge is being modeled over the Western/Central Gulf of Mexico as well and once a secondary trough passes next weekend, perhaps conditions may be a bit more conducive for TC development.

[texoz]

So, when do we start talking about the crazy model prediction for the Nov 6th time frame?

[Paul Robison]

So, when do we start talking about the crazy model prediction for the Nov 6th time frame?

We start talking now, I'm afraid. Is it true that the Canadian model has been trying to spin up a system in the central caribbean and shoot it at S.Texas?

[unome]

NOAA: Slow Atlantic hurricane season coming to a close

No major hurricanes formed in the Atlantic basin - first time since 1994

Thirteen named storms formed in the Atlantic basin this year. Two, Ingrid and Humberto, became hurricanes, but neither became major hurricanes. Although the number of named storms was above the average of 12, the numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes were well below their averages of six and three, respectively. Major hurricanes are categories 3 and above.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... eason.html