December: New Years Eve Outlook

[cristina6871]

as always, my mom "thinks" it won't be near as bad as "they" have predicted - for the Houston/Woodlands area.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

as always, my mom "thinks" it won't be near as bad as "they" have predicted - for the Houston/Woodlands area.

Houston won't be bad... Woodlands is on the southern line for small ice accumulations.

[cristina6871]

will it still get cold as they have said or have models backed off on temps

[srainhoutx]

NWS Midland/Odessa to do a special 18Z sounding. They have stated the warm nose aloft is decreasing via diual pol radar analysis.

[djmike]

So if Lubbock NWS underestimated the strength of this front and underestimated the moisture, than is it possible NWS HOU has also underestimated the strength and moisture for us???? I did notice NWS HOU now has a chance of freezing rain for Sat night and Sunday on their forecast!!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests a very close call for Central/SE Texas overnight Saturday for any potential icing issues as a Coastal trough/low develops just E of Brownsville and a near 1038mb high pressure cell settles across Central Texas. Also that model is suggesting some potential of light additional moisture as the upper trough approaches late Monday afternoon into the over night hours.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2058
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM CST THU DEC 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH NWRN TX

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 051640Z - 052045Z

SUMMARY...MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH RATES FROM .04-.08
INCHES PER HOUR WILL EXPAND NEWD THROUGH WRN INTO NWRN TX INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY TAPER FROM
THE WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE SRN EXTENT OF A WEDGE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS WRN TX TODAY. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FROM MIDLAND TO LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. AN AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH RATES FROM .02-.1 INCH PER HOUR WILL EXPAND NEWD
THROUGH WRN TX. THE PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A ZONE OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AS INITIAL BAND OF ASCENT CONTINUES NEWD...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY TAPER OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN TX DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A NOSE OF WARM
AIR ABOVE THE NEAR SURFACE SUBFREEZING LAYER...RESULTING IN A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

..DIAL.. 12/05/2013


ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

[hlewis]

I'm just going to go out on a limb here.... In Wharton County and having a parade in El Campo, any chance to see a lil snow flurry? Also, will rain be an issue between 5-9pm? I asked a day or so ago, but want to hear your thoughts now that we are getting close.

[srainhoutx]

I'm just going to go out on a limb here.... In Wharton County and having a parade in El Campo, any chance to see a lil snow flurry? Also, will rain be an issue between 5-9pm? I asked a day or so ago, but want to hear your thoughts now that we are getting close.

Probably a bit too close to the Coast for you folks to see any wintry mischief, but it will be worth monitoring as the next day or two for any changes in the forecast. It will be rather cold and possibly wet, so bundle up!

[hlewis]

I'm just going to go out on a limb here.... In Wharton County and having a parade in El Campo, any chance to see a lil snow flurry? Also, will rain be an issue between 5-9pm? I asked a day or so ago, but want to hear your thoughts now that we are getting close.

Probably a bit too close to the Coast for you folks to see any wintry mischief, but it will be worth monitoring as the next day or two for any changes in the forecast. It will be rather cold and possibly wet, so bundle up!

Thank you, Srain. Appreciate it

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1050 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS
OF THE PERMIAN BASIN ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 INCLUDING
LEA COUNTY NEW MEXICO...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-20...INCLUDING THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BREWSTER COUNTY THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR A WINTRY MIX...

.A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WEST INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED IN BEHIND THE FRONT. FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET ARE THE PRIMARY FORMS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA ALONG WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SLEET. IN THE ADVISORY
AREA ICE ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH ARE MOSTLY
EXPECTED. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 15. THOSE
CONSIDERING TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD
MAKE CONTINGENCY PLANS TO DEAL WITH THIS WINTRY WEATHER.

NMZ029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-060>062-060100-
/O.UPG.KMAF.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-131206T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMAF.WS.W.0004.131205T1650Z-131206T1200Z/
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-WINKLER-ECTOR-
MIDLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TATUM...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...EUNICE...
JAL...SEMINOLE...LAMESA...GAIL...SNYDER...ANDREWS...STANTON...
BIG SPRING...COLORADO CITY...KERMIT...ODESSA...MIDLAND
1050 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013 /950 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013/

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ FRIDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* EVENT...ICE AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.

* TIMING...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO ICE AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
STAIRWAYS...WALKWAYS AND WINDOWS MAY ALSO BECOME ICY. POWER LINES
AND WEAKENED TREE LIMBS MAY FALL.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER INCH AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL
DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP
AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF
AN EMERGENCY.

[wxman57]

Here's a new meteogram. Still looks like quite cold rain for most of Houston. Up on the north side (Conroe/Huntsville there will likely be some freezing rain/drizzle. But there should be a significant layer of above-freezing air aloft, as noted by the red dashed line which represents the temperature about 5000 ft above ground. Central and SE Houston will be 1-3 deg warmer (less cold) than the plot for IAH below.

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 12Z Canadian suggests another impulse crossing Texas next Thursday. The 12Z GFS is about 24 hours slower, but also has this upper air disturbance.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1146 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

TXZ049-054-064>066-071-072-098-113-127-052000-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-HASKELL-JONES-
TAYLOR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER...
STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...BALLINGER...WINTERS...
MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...HASKELL...STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN...
ABILENE
1146 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND
WESTERN BIG COUNTRY...

AN AREA OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY
THROUGH 2 PM. ALTHOUGH ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...A
GLAZE OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS FROM STERLING CITY TO
ROBERT LEE TO SWEETWATER AND NORTHWARD INTO THE ROBY AND ROTAN
AREAS. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE INTERSTATE 20 AREAS WEST OF
SWEETWATER...AND HIGHWAY 87 NORTHWEST OF STERLING CITY.

REMEMBER...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST TO FREEZE UP.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S...MOST ROADWAYS
WILL QUICKLY SEE ICY PATCHES DEVELOP.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GEFS (individual ensemble members) are beginning to key in on precip developing Monday afternoon as the short wave/upper trough approaches Texas.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It's 35 in Hearne (just north of College Station).... LOOK OUT BELOW!

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST THU DEC 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX...SERN OK THROUGH NWRN AR...SRN MO...SRN
IL AND SWRN IND

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 051800Z - 052300Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET IN SOME
LOCATIONS WITH RATES FROM .02 INCHES TO LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF .1 INCH
PER HOUR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM SERN
OK...NWRN AR...SRN MO INTO SRN IL...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO
PORTIONS OF NCNTRL TX.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SOME SLEET PERSISTS FROM ERN OK THROUGH NWRN AR...SRN MO AND SRN IL.
THIS WINTRY MIX IS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER WRN TX WILL CONTINUE NEWD TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING SWLY FLOW IN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL AUGMENT FORCING
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...LIKELY RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES. FREEZING RAIN LINE SHOULD GRADUALLY
DEVELOP SLOWLY SWD AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WET BULB TO AOB FREEZING
AND AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ADVECTS SWD. STRENGTHENING SWLY WINDS ABOVE THE
SUBFREEZING NEAR SURFACE LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN A WARM NOSE
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN...BUT
WITH SOME SLEET ALSO POSSIBLE. MODEL SOUNDING ALSO INDICATE A
SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER ALOFT SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION RATES MAY BE
LOCALLY ENHANCED WITHIN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

..DIAL.. 12/05/2013


ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...
TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

[cristina6871]

it looks like - from the way I am reading it - the cold is not as cold as they thought for south of Huntsville. Or am I missing something?

[srainhoutx]

it looks like - from the way I am reading it - the cold is not as cold as they thought for south of Huntsville. Or am I missing something?

The cold air is coming in waves, if you will. The initial cold front is what passed SE Texas earlier this morning and re enforcing shots of colder air will continue to filter in over the next several days. Perhaps this image will help you see the amount of Arctic high pressure extending from Eastern Alaska all the way into the Plains. Each 'blue H' represents additional cold air surges and they are lined up fairly well for the foreseeable future. Cold air advection, or cold winds blowing at the surface will cross over snow and ice on the ground to our N meaning less of a chance of air mass modification and the clouds will prevent us from warming up since there is no sunshine reaching the ground. This is the coldest air mass we have seen so far this season.

Current surface temperatures and dew points as well as wind speeds:

Also the 12Z GEFS (American Ensemble guidance) keep us very chilly into next Thursday/Friday.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z European operational guidance continues with the theme of an unsettled cold pattern with several upper air disturbances tracking across our Region Tuesday into Wednesday.