January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

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srainhoutx
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Some of the 12Z GFS winter weather charts are suggesting a bit of icing as the precip ends across SE Texas/SW Louisiana, if it were to verify. We will see.
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12232013 12Z GFS gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_68.png
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TxJohn
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Looks like Joe bastardi was right...January will be similar to 1994. He said all the models are painting a 1994 picture. Even though it's 5 days out...I doubt we'll be impacted. So far my hunches have been right this winter. ;)
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srainhoutx
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LOL...The 12Z GFS dumps the Arctic air from Siberia into North America with a PNA Ridge building into Alaska and a cross Polar flow.
12252013 12Z GFS gfs_z500_vort_namer_73.png
12252013 12Z GFS gfs_mslpa_sd_nhem_74.png
12252013 12Z GFS gfs_T2ma_nhem_42.png
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srainhoutx
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The forecast from New Years Day into mid January is trending to that of what we saw in late November/early December where a –WPO (Western Pacific Oscillation)/-EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) regime where heights were high across the North Pacific/Gulf of Alaska due to the unusually warm waters across the Northern Pacific ushered in much colder air into the Western 2/3rds of North America and brought much below normal temperatures with a stormy pattern as strong/potent upper lows and a noisy sub tropical jet brought bouts of wintry weather across our Region. The PNA (Pacific- North American Oscillation) is forecast to relax back to a more neutral or slightly negative state which is what happen when we were very chilly early in the month of December where a persistent trough developed across the Great Basin/Inter Mountain West and into the Plains while the East Coast saw a stout Ridge and kept that area warm with above normal temperatures. The fly in the ointment is the AO (Arctic Oscillation) which is currently forecast to drop into negative territory which tends to have major effects of the location of the Polar Vortex near Hudson Bay. The Global ensembles have been hinting that the PV will shift back W and S, or to the West of Hudson Bay. Currently our source regions of Eastern Alaska/NW Territories of Western Canada are witnessing temperatures of -50 F or about 10-20 F colder than what we saw early in December. The telecommunication indices tend to raise an eyebrow as those indicators we look to suggest a more favorable pattern for a return of chilly weather into our Region.

There are also indications that the tropical Pacific may become a bit more active with convection and that tends to throw a wild card into the forecasting schemes when looking at the medium/long range forecast, but after a relaxation of the pattern in our part of the world, signals are growing that another pattern change may be developing that could have major impacts on the sensible weather we can expect in the early to mid January time frame.
12272013 00Z WPO 00zgfsensallwpo.gif
12272013 00Z WPO 00zgfsensallwpo.gif (7.14 KiB) Viewed 13561 times
12272013 00Z EPO 00zgfsensallepo.gif
12272013 00Z EPO 00zgfsensallepo.gif (7.78 KiB) Viewed 13561 times
12272013 00Z PNA 00zgfsensallpna.gif
12272013 00Z PNA 00zgfsensallpna.gif (8.37 KiB) Viewed 13561 times
12272013 00Z AO 00zgfsensallao.gif
12272013 00Z AO 00zgfsensallao.gif (6.47 KiB) Viewed 13561 times
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TxJohn
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Lol I will believe it when I see it. When there's 25 degrees forecasted for the next day then I'll believe it's gonna get cold.

So far regardless of the trends the Euro and GFS keeps us in a boring pattern...our 7 fay forecast just changed this morning to warmer weather. We looking at a low of 30 degrees early next week now we'll be in the 40s and the coldest being 34.
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TxJohn wrote:Lol I will believe it when I see it. When there's 25 degrees forecasted for the next day then I'll believe it's gonna get cold.

So far regardless of the trends the Euro and GFS keeps us in a boring pattern...our 7 fay forecast just changed this morning to warmer weather. We looking at a low of 30 degrees early next week now we'll be in the 40s and the coldest being 34.


Well if that's the case then this longer-range thread probably isn't for you.
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When do the models ever not come to a reasonable moderation? I'm so tired of getting hopes up then like clockwork, they modify to the usual warming trend. I hope this warming trend doesnt remain the rest of our winter.
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Warming trend? Good lord guys... Even the short to mid term forecast doesn't show a warming trend... It shows average to below avg temps.

I don't think "trend" means what you think it means... The macro synoptic pattern is still very vulnerable to consistent cold fronts reaching our area whether they are extreme or just cool. If anything, these extended range runs just tell me that we will eventually see another arctic blast or two this winter and the pattern doesn't look to change anytime soon. My common sense tells me that this winter will end up as one of the cooler ones in recent memory and the STJ should bring us some welcome precip into mid January onward.

We are always fighting climatology here (the gulf) if you are expecting consistent sub 50 temps for highs. I'm just happy we've seen more sub 50 than 70 plus this December and I expect that to continue.

If you like really cold weather like me, I suggest you save up and travel to the mountains in the Winter because you just aren't going to see consistent freezing weather here in most winters including 1989 and 1983. After those cold snaps, the rest of those Winters were mild.
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Portastorm
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Very well said, MontgomeryCoWx!

Think you put it all into perspective quite well. ;)
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Portastorm
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All of this talk of "warming trends" and such ... take a look at the last 30 days and just how cold, how below normal we have been!
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srainhoutx
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LOL...
12282013 12Z Euro f240.gif
12282013 12Z Euro 12zecmwf500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif
12282013 12Z Euro 12zecmwf850mbTAnomalyNA240.gif
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ticka1
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srainhoutx wrote:LOL...
12282013 12Z Euro f240.gif
12282013 12Z Euro 12zecmwf500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif
12282013 12Z Euro 12zecmwf850mbTAnomalyNA240.gif
what fantasy is this showing srainhoutx?
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srainhoutx
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ticka1 wrote:
what fantasy is this showing srainhoutx?

This is around January 7th. As we have mentioned, the telecommunication indices have suggested a return to a much colder pattern across the Western 2/3rds of North America extending well south into Mexico in a somewhat similar pattern we saw late November/early to mid December. It is still a long way out, but the indicators have been rather persistent over the past 5-7 days another big pattern change was ahead for our Region. The ensembles have been 'sniffing' that change as well, so there may be some credence to the validity that the medium/long range guidance is picking up on the -EPO/-AO/-WPO regime that tends to deliver much colder air into the Great Basin, Inter Mountain West and the Plains including Texas and possibly as far south as Monterrey, MX. We will see.
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srainhoutx
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I know there is a lot of chatter concern what we may expect later in the upcoming week into next weekend. The Global ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to struggle with the -WPO/-EPO/-AO telecommunications regime and what the sensible weather will be regard this pattern change. The operational Euro dropped a very deep trough into the Western/Central US yesterday with its 12Z run while the 00Z GFS was depicting a 1065+ mb Arctic High settling into Montana only to loose it with the 06Z output. The 12Z GFS is back to a deep trough pattern with a 1050+ mb Arctic High and a deep Western/Central trough delivering much colder air well south into the Western 2/3rds of the Continental United States. Canada remains very cold, so our source regions are certainly capable of delivering a cold shot into our Region. The New Year appears to start very unsettled with a front arriving Thursday with perhaps a much colder front arriving next weekend. We will see.
12292013 12Z GFS gfs_z500_vort_namer_58.png
12292013 12Z GFS gfs_uv250_nhem_63.png
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z Canadian is also suggesting a strong cold front next Sunday with a potent Winter Storm as a robust short wave/upper low drops S into the Desert SW. Heavy snow for the higher elevations of Arizona and New Mexico with wintry mischief spreading across Texas, if such a solution were to verify.
12292013 12Z CMC f180.gif
12292013 12Z CMC f216.gif
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z GEFS (ensemble mean) is also suggesting the 500mb anomaly pattern that is favorable for dropping a Western Central North America trough bring colder air well south and the means also suggests an upper air disturbance crossing Mexico after the cold air is in place at the surface.
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12292013 12Z GEFS gfs-ens_z500a_namer_33.png
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srainhoutx
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After a quiet and cool pattern since Christmas there are growing indications that a very chilly and possibly stormy pattern is ahead as we begin 2014. The Global deterministic and ensemble guidance is suggest a significant pattern change ushering in much colder air into our Region as a -WPO (Western Pacific Oscillation)/-EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation)/-AO (Arctic Oscillation) regime develops some what similar to the Weather Pattern we witnessed in late November/early to mid December where temperature departures of -20 to -30 degrees were commonplace and extended cold entrecched our Region for several weeks. A very strong Arctic Front looks to arrive next weekend.
The attachment 12292013 12Z Euro Ensemble mean Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_168.gif is no longer available
12292013 12Z Euro Ensemble mean Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_168.gif
12292013 12Z Euro Ensemble 12zecmwfens850mbTAnomalyNA192.gif
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srainhoutx
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The 18Z GFS is suggesting some wintry mischief after the Arctic front arrives next Sunday with a upper trough extending to our SW to near the Baja Region. Such a solution would tend to favor over running precip over the shallow cold air at the surface and there my be some potential for a Coastal Low to develop that would increase chances of Wintry Weather across portions of Texas and Oklahoma.
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12292013 18Z GFS gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_55.png
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Keep it coming srain...everyone here is watching, just not posting because we have been down this road before already this fall/winter season. Heck, even Ed isn't chiming in with is monotone dialogue. He has GOT to be out of town or something! Just kidding Ed.

Interesting times ahead hopefully. That's all I've got. :)
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Wow, the models have really lost their bearings for Montana and Southern Canada. :shock:

And its within a higher resolution timeframe too. Massive 1060s and upper 1050s highs from both the Euro and GFS slipping down the Rockies.
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