January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS while in the time frame beyond the medium range (hour 240), does suggest a very deep trough developing across the Inter Mountain West and on E. The 500mb charts suggest a strong northerly cross Polar flow becomes established and embedded disturbance dropping S from Canada as well as a noisy sub tropical jet. That computer model is suggesting moisture from the Pacific spreading across Mexico toward Texas as well as additional upper level storms tracking into the base of the trough.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z suite of operational guidance continue to advertise a pattern change developing later in the month. A Very stout EPO Ridge is forecast by virtually all the Global deterministic guidance to 'bridge' across the Polar Region and develop a cross Polar flow.

[vci_guy2003]

Eric Berger mentioned the polar vortex possibly returning by month's end... Any thoughts???

[Ptarmigan]

California is in a severe drought due to the ridging. The same ridge that is allowing cold airs and clippers to hit the Midwest. A negative PDO has an impact on California rain like in Texas as they have less rain.

Historic January Drought Intensifies in California
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2611

[Ptarmigan]

On the topic of freezes, here are links of Texas freezes.

History of Freezes in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, Part II 1895-1962
http://www.raingardens.com/psst/articles/artic02.htm

A History of Severe Freezes in the Lower Rio Grande Valley -- Part III
http://www.raingardens.com/psst/articles/artic03.htm

Tompkins: Documenting Texas coast's big chills
http://www.chron.com/sports/article/Tom ... 687256.php

When Galveston Bay Froze Over
http://www.texasreader.com/when-galvest ... -over.html

North Texas Snowfall Events
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=snowevents

There were some big ones in 1821, 1845-46, 1886, 1888, 1895, and 1899. Galveston Bay froze over in 1821 and 1899. There was a huge snow storm in Galveston in January 1886, 6 inches of snow fell. The big freezes come about every 15 years.

[ronyan]

The most incredible number to me is 8F at Galveston in Feb 1899. That record seems untouchable and there is a reason it has stood for so long. That was a very rare series of fronts ending in an extreme high pressure center and conditions had to be perfect for a freeze like that to occur.

If something similar happened today there would be a lot of people down here caught off guard. The last time we've had cold approaching that level in TX was the 1989 freeze.

[Ptarmigan]

The most incredible number to me is 8F at Galveston in Feb 1899. That record seems untouchable and there is a reason it has stood for so long. That was a very rare series of fronts ending in an extreme high pressure center and conditions had to be perfect for a freeze like that to occur.

If something similar happened today there would be a lot of people down here caught off guard. The last time we've had cold approaching that level in TX was the 1989 freeze.

I consider 1821, 1886, 1895, and 1899 as epic freezes, especially 1899. A 1899 type freeze happens every 200 to 500 years. The closes to 1899 were 1933, 1983, and 1989 and they were severe by any metric.

I could imagine if 1899 freeze happens, people will be in the shock of their life.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS suggests a stout EPO Ridge and cross polar flow developing before truncation. The trends continue to advertise a shot of ‘colder’ Siberian air settling on our side the world. We will see.

CPC:

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 24 - 30 2014

THE WEEK-2 OUTLOOK REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY, WITH GROWING
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND AGAIN DEPICTS AN
EXPECTED SUBTLE RETROGRESSION WHEN COMPARED WITH BOTH THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK AND
YESTERDAY'S WEEK-2 OUTLOOK. THE GFS AND ECMWF SYSTEMS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS,
WITH THE GFS SOLUTION HAVING BEEN SLIGHTLY BETTER. TELECONNECTIONS UPON THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY FORECAST OVER ALASKA CONTINUES TO FAVOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE HAS BEEN REASONABLY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG
RECENT DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS, ALL OF WHICH SUGGEST A COLDER SOLUTION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, NORTHERN PLAINS, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ALONG THE EAST COAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. DESPITE
DRIER-THAN-MEDIAN SIGNALS FROM THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS, NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED BASED ON THE TELECONNECTIONS AND ANALOGS, AS WELL AS
SUPPORT FROM DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.

THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FARILY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE ANOMALY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE DATE
LINE IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AS WELL AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE ANOMALY IN THE
INDIAN OCEAN. THIS COULD FAVOR ENHANCED ODDS OF COLD AIR OUTBREAKS TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AND BEYOND, CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
LATEST 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE SYSTEM DISPLAYS LARGE SPREAD TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD, SUGGESTING STATISTICAL RELATIONSHIPS WITH STRONG TROPICAL
CONVECTIVE SIGNALS MIGHT BE USEFUL TOWARD THE END OF WEEK-2 AND THEREAFTER.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONUS,
AS WELL AS THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ALONG THE EAST COAST.

FORECASTER: STEPHEN BAXTER

[vci_guy2003]

Guess mr Berger is out to lunch

[Paul Robison]

Another bone-chilling, power-cutting freeze to hit Texas at the end of January?

SAY IT AIN'T SO!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro ( hour 192) is suggesting a very impressive blocking pattern with a cross Polar flow delivering very chilly air from Siberia into Canada and the Central/Eastern United States.

[cristina6871]

srainhoutx, that doesn't look like it'll come our way. Am I reading it wrong?

[srainhoutx]

srainhoutx, that doesn't look like it'll come our way. Am I reading it wrong?

Right now the models are suggesting the 'coldest air' is to our East, cristina. What is noteworthy as we move just beyond the Day 10 time frame and start looking into February, the mean trough is shifting W and with each day the coldest anomalies as well as the 500mb pattern are suggesting our source Region of Western Canada will become much colder as the bitter cold air continues to build across the North Pole and head South. The fly in the ointment is the continued suggesting of strong tropical convection developing near and E of the dateline in the Pacific Ocean. That suggests everything shifts into the Central United States and into our Region.

Climate Prediction Center Update as of this afternoon...

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 25 - 31 2014

THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. THE
OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND DEPICTS THE LARGEST POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES VERY CLOSE TO THE POLE, TELECONNECTING TO AN IMPRESSIVELY COLD
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ALONG THE EAST COAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TODAY'S
DYNAMIC SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER, HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
STATISTICAL TOOLS THAT WERE HEAVILY FAVORED EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK MAY, IN FACT, BE ALONG THE WEST COAST,
WHERE TELECONNECTIONS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR SOME MODEST UNDERCUTTING
OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER ALASKA. PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION WERE DECREASED FAIRLY DRAMATICALLY, AND ENHANCED ODDS FOR
NEAR-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION WERE INTRODUCED.

THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
INTENSE CONVECTIVE ANOMALY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE DATE LINE IN THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AS WELL AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE ANOMALY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN.
THIS COULD FAVOR ENHANCED ODDS OF COLD AIR OUTBREAKS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD AND BEYOND, CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ALONG BOTH COASTS.

FORECASTER: STEPHEN BAXTER

[srainhoutx]

Interesting developments via the over night guidance as little short wave suggested by the 00Z Euro and the 00Z/06Z GFS late this coming week dropping down the back side of the big Eastern trough and arriving after an Arctic front passes Texas/Louisiana on Thursday with 1048mb Arctic High just to our N. The guidance has been slowly shifting the colder air back W and the operational guidance is suggesting over running precip as a Coastal trough/low develops, some of it of the wintry nature developing this coming Friday into Saturday. Temperatures may struggle to make it out of the low to mid 30's for highs if the guidance is correct.

Day 3 to 7 Surface Charts:

Hour 120:

Precip:

Temperature:

[txflagwaver]

So does that mean it's going to be cold next weekend?

[srainhoutx]

So does that mean it's going to be cold next weekend?

The trends have been moving in that direction, txflagwaver. Cold and wet with temperatures struggling to make it out of the 30's for daytime highs with blustery N winds.

[Katdaddy]

I was hoping we were done with the very cold weather this Winter but I better enjoy this nice warm weather. Some of the most Wintery days occur in Feb so we still have a long way to go.

[ticka1]

So does that mean it's going to be cold next weekend?

The trends have been moving in that direction, txflagwaver. Cold and wet with temperatures struggling to make it out of the 30's for daytime highs with blustery N winds.

yay winter returns

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GEFS (ensemble individual members) are coming into better agreement that over running precip will develop after a shot of the Arctic air arrives on Thursday. While it is too soon to know the 'finer details', it does appear a Coastal trough/low may well develop and wintry mischief most likely in the form of light freezing drizzle/light freezing rain may develop across portions of our Region. We will see.

[unome]

So does that mean it's going to be cold next weekend?

The trends have been moving in that direction, txflagwaver. Cold and wet with temperatures struggling to make it out of the 30's for daytime highs with blustery N winds.

I know the 7-day forecast will change, as 7-day forecasts do, however, here's Seabrook's current forecast from NWS: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 95.025&e=0

as of right now, it shows 20% chance of precip Thur-Sat, with highs ranging from 50-58 during that same period