January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month
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srainhoutx
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Deicing operations currently underway by TXDOT on Harris County Interstate road ways and State highways.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Did anyone see what the GFS shows next Thursday?.... 
What is going on based on GFS for next week?don wrote:Did anyone see what the GFS shows next Thursday?....
Shows a major ice storm across southeast Texas hours 180-204
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gf ... precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gf ... precip.gif
Last edited by don on Wed Jan 22, 2014 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Baseballdude2915
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Ptarmigan wrote:What is going on based on GFS for next week?don wrote:Did anyone see what the GFS shows next Thursday?....
Wow front that nearly reaches temps we saw earlier this month and precip galore.
Lets see if it's still there by Monday.
Neat to see this board come alive again! I'm excited for everyone in Central and SE TX and hope everything works out perfectly. Watching models, wouldn't be surprised at the end of it all if there are a few "surprises" as far as accumulation goes. This doesn't look like to be a bust, almost guarantee mostly everyone will see some type of form of precipitation.
Though, if you don't like what you see tomorrow... wait a week, tomorrow might just be the appetizer.
Anyway, all good here at OU (besides the scare today). Just very cold, windy and dry with some high fire danger. While y'all are wishing for snow, I'm wishing for anything - even rain. We need it badly!
Stay safe tomorrow night and into Friday. Icy roads are no fun at all (I've learned the hard way).
Cheers everyone!
Though, if you don't like what you see tomorrow... wait a week, tomorrow might just be the appetizer.
Anyway, all good here at OU (besides the scare today). Just very cold, windy and dry with some high fire danger. While y'all are wishing for snow, I'm wishing for anything - even rain. We need it badly!
Stay safe tomorrow night and into Friday. Icy roads are no fun at all (I've learned the hard way).
Cheers everyone!
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
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Andrew
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So lets look at a breakdown of what we have so far as of the 00z runs. There are some huge disparities between models with an event only 24 hours away. The differences between the GFS and NAM in particular are large and unfortunately I don't see a set solution being resolved until precipitation starts firing to the south and west. First let's look at timing of the front. As of now the front is currently situated across the center of the state and is slowly progressing south. Model indicate that the front should progress through the northern part of the area a couple of hours after sunrise, but I suspect that may be too slow and it likely will occur a couple of hours before that. For the most part models seem to agree on timing of the front, but from there things start to differ.
After the front pushes through the area the NAM wants to slowly decrease temps while the GFS is a lot more aggressive, dropping temps much more rapidly with 00z temps at College Station at 34 degrees versus the NAM's 40 degrees. What is even more interesting is the differences in dewpoints. The GFS has 00z dewpoints in the low 20's while the NAM keeps dewpoints in the upper 20's/ lower 30's. The GFS seems to have much stronger cold air advection which would usher in drier air at the surface in particular. I do believe the GFS is bias in this thinking and is probably too low on dewpoints. With moisture overriding the front and decent mid level mixing its going to be tough to get dew's that low. This bias was also present with the Christmas cold snap where the GFS predicted dewpoints in the negatives while the NAM was much more conservative. The NAM verified much better as a result.
GFS MOS:
NAM MOS:
While I believe the NAM has a better understanding of the type of air progressing south, I do see temps being a little to conservative. At this stage I do see a blend between the NAM and GFS being much more likely to verify. The NAM doesn't get temps below zero (32F) for much of the area until Friday morning. With the lower levels being drier and the eventual evaporation that will occur, wet bulb temps would indicate that temps should drop much faster. Paired with the fact that current temperatures are already quite cool, this front shouldn't modify too much.
Finally looking at moisture, again models seem to differ on what they think will happen. The NAM and Euro are wetter than the GFS with the NAM being the wettest of all three models. Interesting to note that both the NAM and hi-res NAM indicate leftover moisture that persists until Friday night. The NAM is much more aggressive with the upper air disturbance/ shortwave and does have indications of a surface low developing. On the other hand the GFS seems to have moisture originating from frontal overrunning and is more prominent closer to the coast. It will be interesting to see where moisture sets up tomorrow out west and if the coastal counties or northern counties win out on higher QPF values. Luckily I do think the base of the trough and drier air will be far enough east where most people should at least get a chance to see something. Unfortunately I suspect locating where higher liquid amounts setup will be something we won't know until the event actually starts.
Just a quick reminder that there will be at least one special launch tomorrow at KCLL at 00z. There is also the possibility (depending on trends) that a 6z launch could also occur. These launches will be especially important in determining the warm nose in the mid levels and how strong it is. It will also help us understand how much moisture is present and where the dry layers are present.
After the front pushes through the area the NAM wants to slowly decrease temps while the GFS is a lot more aggressive, dropping temps much more rapidly with 00z temps at College Station at 34 degrees versus the NAM's 40 degrees. What is even more interesting is the differences in dewpoints. The GFS has 00z dewpoints in the low 20's while the NAM keeps dewpoints in the upper 20's/ lower 30's. The GFS seems to have much stronger cold air advection which would usher in drier air at the surface in particular. I do believe the GFS is bias in this thinking and is probably too low on dewpoints. With moisture overriding the front and decent mid level mixing its going to be tough to get dew's that low. This bias was also present with the Christmas cold snap where the GFS predicted dewpoints in the negatives while the NAM was much more conservative. The NAM verified much better as a result.
GFS MOS:
Code: Select all
KCLL GFS MOS GUIDANCE 1/23/2014 0000 UTC
DT /JAN 23 /JAN 24 /JAN 25 /
HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00
X/N 45 22 44 30 63
TMP 51 49 47 45 40 38 34 33 31 28 25 29 39 44 43 38 35 33 32 55 58
DPT 40 40 39 36 29 24 20 20 19 16 12 11 8 9 13 19 21 23 24 26 30
CLD BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV CL CL CL CL CL CL FW
WDR 15 07 02 03 02 02 01 01 02 01 01 02 35 29 18 19 20 22 24 27 00
WSP 05 04 09 14 20 24 18 19 16 13 09 06 04 05 03 03 05 04 03 08 00
P06 12 31 71 44 28 15 12 4 2 1 2
P12 89 48 18 6 2
Q06 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Q12 2 1 0 0 0
T06 0/ 3 0/ 1 2/ 0 3/ 0 1/ 0 1/ 0 2/ 8 2/ 4 1/ 4 1/ 0
T12 0/ 3 3/ 0 1/ 1 2/ 8 2/ 8
POZ 0 1 1 1 6 16 27 34 38 35 35 23 17 15 14 15 15 12 10 1 1
POS 0 0 0 1 0 3 30 35 47 53 49 50 59 49 22 18 13 21 19 0 0
TYP R R R R R R Z Z Z Z Z Z S S R R R R R R R
SNW 0 0
CIG 8 8 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Code: Select all
KCLL NAM MOS GUIDANCE 1/23/2014 0000 UTC
DT /JAN 23 /JAN 24 /JAN 25 /
HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00
X/N 46 29 31 31 55
TMP 50 46 43 45 44 42 40 38 35 34 32 29 28 29 30 31 33 33 34 48 52
DPT 41 39 37 37 34 35 32 29 27 26 23 20 25 29 28 27 30 31 31 27 33
CLD BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV FW CL CL SC
WDR 13 05 03 02 03 03 02 03 03 03 01 01 35 34 36 21 20 22 21 24 20
WSP 05 05 08 14 16 17 18 17 16 11 09 08 06 07 03 04 04 04 04 08 06
P06 4 17 51 79 58 30 34 4 1 4 4
P12 55 79 48 9 6
Q06 0 0 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Q12 1 3 1 0 0
T06 1/ 4 0/ 1 3/ 3 3/ 0 1/ 1 2/ 0 3/ 0 2/ 4 1/ 1 0/ 0
T12 3/ 4 4/ 3 3/ 1 5/ 4 1/ 1
SNW 0 0
CIG 8 8 5 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 3 3 4 4 5 8 8 8 8
VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 7 7 7 7 7
OBV N N N N N N BR BR N N N N BR BR BR BR N N N N N Finally looking at moisture, again models seem to differ on what they think will happen. The NAM and Euro are wetter than the GFS with the NAM being the wettest of all three models. Interesting to note that both the NAM and hi-res NAM indicate leftover moisture that persists until Friday night. The NAM is much more aggressive with the upper air disturbance/ shortwave and does have indications of a surface low developing. On the other hand the GFS seems to have moisture originating from frontal overrunning and is more prominent closer to the coast. It will be interesting to see where moisture sets up tomorrow out west and if the coastal counties or northern counties win out on higher QPF values. Luckily I do think the base of the trough and drier air will be far enough east where most people should at least get a chance to see something. Unfortunately I suspect locating where higher liquid amounts setup will be something we won't know until the event actually starts.
Just a quick reminder that there will be at least one special launch tomorrow at KCLL at 00z. There is also the possibility (depending on trends) that a 6z launch could also occur. These launches will be especially important in determining the warm nose in the mid levels and how strong it is. It will also help us understand how much moisture is present and where the dry layers are present.
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srainhoutx
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The overnight guidance has trended in favor of a fairly signifanct Winter Weather event for SE Texas. WPC Senior Forecaster Paul Kocin has placed the Houston Metro Area with a 10% chance of seeing up to 1/4 inch of Ice that would create major travel and transportation issues -vs- powerline problem during the day on Friday. Light snow may develop across portions of Central Texas and extended as far S as the I-10 Corridor. Light freezing rain/sleet is likely further S from just N of Brownsville to the Coastal Counties along the Middle and Upper Texas Coast and extend further E into SW Louisiana and possibly as far E as Baton Rogue. TXDOT has spent the night deicing area bridges/overpasses/flyovers, but travel during the late night hours of tonight extending into Friday afternoon/evening should be discouraged and may be very dangerous. Stay tuned to future updates. Winter Storm Watches may be replaced with Winter Storm Warnings today and Winter Weather Advisories where lesser amounts may be expected in this evovling Winter Storm Situation.
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
216 AM EST THU JAN 23 2014
VALID 12Z THU JAN 23 2014 - 12Z SUN JAN 26 2014
...ROCKIES INTO TEXAS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWNWIND OF THE AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SHEAR APART WITH ONE
PORTION MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST WHILE THE REST
OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES ENTRAINED WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US.
WHILE THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHWARD...SNOW WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE
ROCKIES BUT AS THE LARGE COLD ANTICYCLONE SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD TEXAS...A BELT OF EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL QUICKLY MOISTEN THE RAPIDLY CHILLING AIR
OVER TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA. THE COLDER AIR MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW FALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AS COLDER AIR DRIVES
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH A MIXTURE OF ALL 3
ELEMENTS SEPARATING PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW FROM GENERALLY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN. AT PRESENT...MOST FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
BE LESS THAN .25 INCHES BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE
AREA NEAR HOUSTON COULD RECIEVE UP TO ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF ICE.
MUCH OF THIS HAZARD WILL MORE LIKELY AFFECT TRANSPORTATION SAFETY
THAN ISSUES REGARDING POWERLINES. ON SATURDAY...THE TROUGH IS
EFFECTIVELY SHEARED APART BY THE UPPER WESTERLY FLOW AND THE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHRINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF ENDING THE
ICING THREAT ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR
ALL 3 DAYS.
KOCIN
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
216 AM EST THU JAN 23 2014
VALID 12Z THU JAN 23 2014 - 12Z SUN JAN 26 2014
...ROCKIES INTO TEXAS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWNWIND OF THE AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SHEAR APART WITH ONE
PORTION MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST WHILE THE REST
OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES ENTRAINED WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US.
WHILE THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHWARD...SNOW WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE
ROCKIES BUT AS THE LARGE COLD ANTICYCLONE SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD TEXAS...A BELT OF EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL QUICKLY MOISTEN THE RAPIDLY CHILLING AIR
OVER TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA. THE COLDER AIR MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW FALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AS COLDER AIR DRIVES
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH A MIXTURE OF ALL 3
ELEMENTS SEPARATING PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW FROM GENERALLY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN. AT PRESENT...MOST FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
BE LESS THAN .25 INCHES BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE
AREA NEAR HOUSTON COULD RECIEVE UP TO ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF ICE.
MUCH OF THIS HAZARD WILL MORE LIKELY AFFECT TRANSPORTATION SAFETY
THAN ISSUES REGARDING POWERLINES. ON SATURDAY...THE TROUGH IS
EFFECTIVELY SHEARED APART BY THE UPPER WESTERLY FLOW AND THE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHRINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF ENDING THE
ICING THREAT ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR
ALL 3 DAYS.
KOCIN
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srainhoutx
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NWS Lake Charles issues Winter Weather Advisory for their entire forecasting area.
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srainhoutx
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NWS Corpus Christi issues Winter Storm Warning for Goliad, Refugio and Victoria Counties.
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Hourly Weather Forecast Graphs for Hooks, IAH & Hobby Airports
Hooks: http://forecast.weather.gov/meteograms/ ... 6&psnwhr=6
IAH: http://forecast.weather.gov/meteograms/ ... 6&psnwhr=6
Hobby: http://forecast.weather.gov/meteograms/ ... 6&psnwhr=6
Hooks: http://forecast.weather.gov/meteograms/ ... 6&psnwhr=6
IAH: http://forecast.weather.gov/meteograms/ ... 6&psnwhr=6
Hobby: http://forecast.weather.gov/meteograms/ ... 6&psnwhr=6
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srainhoutx
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HGX is rather delayed with their morning update. LCH is now mentioning a decreasing warm nose early tomorrow morning suggesting a transition from freezing rain/sleet to sleet and snow mix for areas along and N of I-10 early into mid day Friday with 1/2 to 1 inch accumulations possible on grassy surfaces.
THE PROBLEM COMES THIS EVENING...WHEN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE SFC TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING.
THIS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN BETWEEN 6-9 PM FROM I-10 NORTHWARD...AND 9
PM TO MIDNIGHT TOWARDS THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS WARM
LAYER ABOVE FREEZING ~850MB GRADUALLY COOLING OFF TO NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING FROM 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE AREA OF
ABOVE FREEZING FROM MID FRI THRU BASICALLY 12-15Z FRI. THUS...THE
RA WILL LIKELY MIX WITH IP...FZRA...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO IP/SN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR SN/IP IS GREATER NORTH OF I-10
DEEPER INTO THE COLDER AIR...WITH A MIX OF FZRA/IP/SN MORE LIKELY
FROM I-10 TO THE COAST. FOR THIS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ACCUMULATION
OF THIS WINTRY MIX OF 1/2 TO AS MUCH AS ONE INCH ACROSS THE GRASSY
AREAS...AND ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES/OVERPASSES THAT WILL
FREEZE FIRST WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S/NEAR 30 AND N WINDS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT.
THE PROBLEM COMES THIS EVENING...WHEN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE SFC TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING.
THIS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN BETWEEN 6-9 PM FROM I-10 NORTHWARD...AND 9
PM TO MIDNIGHT TOWARDS THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS WARM
LAYER ABOVE FREEZING ~850MB GRADUALLY COOLING OFF TO NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING FROM 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE AREA OF
ABOVE FREEZING FROM MID FRI THRU BASICALLY 12-15Z FRI. THUS...THE
RA WILL LIKELY MIX WITH IP...FZRA...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO IP/SN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR SN/IP IS GREATER NORTH OF I-10
DEEPER INTO THE COLDER AIR...WITH A MIX OF FZRA/IP/SN MORE LIKELY
FROM I-10 TO THE COAST. FOR THIS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ACCUMULATION
OF THIS WINTRY MIX OF 1/2 TO AS MUCH AS ONE INCH ACROSS THE GRASSY
AREAS...AND ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES/OVERPASSES THAT WILL
FREEZE FIRST WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S/NEAR 30 AND N WINDS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT.
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srainhoutx
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HGX issues Winter Storm Warning for entire SE Texas forecast area.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
542 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
A COLD FRONT WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BEHIND IT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY AND THEN
BEGIN TO FALL DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND THEN BY
FRIDAY MORNING AT THE COAST. MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY THEN CHANGE FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. AREAS FROM COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE MAY EXPERIENCE A
MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET FRIDAY. AREAS TO THE SOUTH INCLUDING HOUSTON
WILL EXPERIENCE A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.
MADISON-WALKER-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...CALDWELL...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA
542 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM CST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN... ICE PELLETS... AND
SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* TIMING...WINTER WEATHER WILL START LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* THREAT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OF 0.10
TO 0.25 INCHES. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION
TO A MIX OF SNOW AND ICE PELLETS FRIDAY MORNING.
* MAIN IMPACT...ACCUMULATING ICE WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. INITIALLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITION INTO FREEZING
RAIN... AND ICE PELLETS. HIGHWAYS AND HIGHWAY BRIDGES WILL BE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS!
* OTHER IMPACTS...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD LIKELY FALL ON TOP OF THE
ICE. THIS WOULD MAKE GLAZING DIFFICULT TO SEE AND BRIDGES EVEN
MORE DANGEROUS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE WARNING AREA.
SAN JACINTO-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-
CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
542 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
CST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN... ICE PELLETS... AND
POSSIBLY SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* TIMING...WINTER WEATHER WILL START THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* THREAT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OF 0.10
TO 0.25 INCHES. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TONIGHT COULD POSSIBLY
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SNOW AND ICE PELLETS FRIDAY MORNING.
* MAIN IMPACT...ACCUMULATING ICE WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. INITIALLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITION INTO FREEZING
RAIN... AND ICE PELLETS. HIGHWAYS AND HIGHWAY BRIDGES WILL BE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS!
* OTHER IMPACTS...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD LIKELY FALL ON TOP OF THE
ICE. THIS WOULD MAKE GLAZING DIFFICULT TO SEE AND BRIDGES EVEN
MORE DANGEROUS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE WARNING AREA.
HOUSTON-TRINITY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON
542 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM CST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN... ICE PELLETS... AND
SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
FRIDAY.
* TIMING...WINTER WEATHER WILL START LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* THREAT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OF 0.10
TO 0.25 INCHES. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION
TO A MIX OF SNOW AND ICE PELLETS FRIDAY MORNING.
* MAIN IMPACT...ACCUMULATING ICE WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. INITIALLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITION INTO FREEZING
RAIN... AND ICE PELLETS. HIGHWAYS AND HIGHWAY BRIDGES WILL BE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS!
* OTHER IMPACTS...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD LIKELY FALL ON TOP OF THE
ICE. THIS WOULD MAKE GLAZING DIFFICULT TO SEE AND BRIDGES EVEN
MORE DANGEROUS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE WARNING AREA.
POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIVINGSTON...CORRIGAN...ONALASKA
542 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
CST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN... ICE PELLETS... AND
POSSIBLY SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9
AM CST FRIDAY.
* TIMING...WINTER WEATHER WILL START THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* THREAT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OF 0.10
TO 0.25 INCHES. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TONIGHT COULD POSSIBLY
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SNOW AND ICE PELLETS FRIDAY MORNING.
* MAIN IMPACT...ACCUMULATING ICE WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. INITIALLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITION INTO FREEZING
RAIN... AND ICE PELLETS. HIGHWAYS AND HIGHWAY BRIDGES WILL BE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS!
* OTHER IMPACTS...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD LIKELY FALL ON TOP OF THE
ICE. THIS WOULD MAKE GLAZING DIFFICULT TO SEE AND BRIDGES EVEN
MORE DANGEROUS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE WARNING AREA.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
542 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
A COLD FRONT WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BEHIND IT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY AND THEN
BEGIN TO FALL DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND THEN BY
FRIDAY MORNING AT THE COAST. MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY THEN CHANGE FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. AREAS FROM COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE MAY EXPERIENCE A
MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET FRIDAY. AREAS TO THE SOUTH INCLUDING HOUSTON
WILL EXPERIENCE A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.
MADISON-WALKER-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...CALDWELL...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA
542 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM CST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN... ICE PELLETS... AND
SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* TIMING...WINTER WEATHER WILL START LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* THREAT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OF 0.10
TO 0.25 INCHES. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION
TO A MIX OF SNOW AND ICE PELLETS FRIDAY MORNING.
* MAIN IMPACT...ACCUMULATING ICE WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. INITIALLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITION INTO FREEZING
RAIN... AND ICE PELLETS. HIGHWAYS AND HIGHWAY BRIDGES WILL BE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS!
* OTHER IMPACTS...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD LIKELY FALL ON TOP OF THE
ICE. THIS WOULD MAKE GLAZING DIFFICULT TO SEE AND BRIDGES EVEN
MORE DANGEROUS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE WARNING AREA.
SAN JACINTO-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-
CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
542 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
CST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN... ICE PELLETS... AND
POSSIBLY SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* TIMING...WINTER WEATHER WILL START THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* THREAT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OF 0.10
TO 0.25 INCHES. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TONIGHT COULD POSSIBLY
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SNOW AND ICE PELLETS FRIDAY MORNING.
* MAIN IMPACT...ACCUMULATING ICE WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. INITIALLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITION INTO FREEZING
RAIN... AND ICE PELLETS. HIGHWAYS AND HIGHWAY BRIDGES WILL BE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS!
* OTHER IMPACTS...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD LIKELY FALL ON TOP OF THE
ICE. THIS WOULD MAKE GLAZING DIFFICULT TO SEE AND BRIDGES EVEN
MORE DANGEROUS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE WARNING AREA.
HOUSTON-TRINITY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON
542 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM CST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN... ICE PELLETS... AND
SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
FRIDAY.
* TIMING...WINTER WEATHER WILL START LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* THREAT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OF 0.10
TO 0.25 INCHES. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION
TO A MIX OF SNOW AND ICE PELLETS FRIDAY MORNING.
* MAIN IMPACT...ACCUMULATING ICE WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. INITIALLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITION INTO FREEZING
RAIN... AND ICE PELLETS. HIGHWAYS AND HIGHWAY BRIDGES WILL BE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS!
* OTHER IMPACTS...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD LIKELY FALL ON TOP OF THE
ICE. THIS WOULD MAKE GLAZING DIFFICULT TO SEE AND BRIDGES EVEN
MORE DANGEROUS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE WARNING AREA.
POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIVINGSTON...CORRIGAN...ONALASKA
542 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
CST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN... ICE PELLETS... AND
POSSIBLY SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9
AM CST FRIDAY.
* TIMING...WINTER WEATHER WILL START THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* THREAT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OF 0.10
TO 0.25 INCHES. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TONIGHT COULD POSSIBLY
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SNOW AND ICE PELLETS FRIDAY MORNING.
* MAIN IMPACT...ACCUMULATING ICE WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. INITIALLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITION INTO FREEZING
RAIN... AND ICE PELLETS. HIGHWAYS AND HIGHWAY BRIDGES WILL BE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS!
* OTHER IMPACTS...THE PRECIPITATION COULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD LIKELY FALL ON TOP OF THE
ICE. THIS WOULD MAKE GLAZING DIFFICULT TO SEE AND BRIDGES EVEN
MORE DANGEROUS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE WARNING AREA.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
TexasBreeze
- Posts: 942
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
HGX has issued a more agressive zone forecast...
I'm glad the NWS issued the winter storm warnings early so the school districts can hopefully make their decisions on closings today.I hate it when they keep us in limbo to the last minute.
NWS just upped my precip chances to 70/40 with a low of 28.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
A short Update from Jeff:
Watch is being upgraded to a warning this morning as confidence in the event happening increases and accumulation amounts are now better defined.
Winter Storm Warning is in effect for all SE TX counties from 900pm tonight until 900am Friday.
Winter Storm Watches SW and W of the area will be upgraded to warnings this morning.
Note: Winter Storm Warning criteria for SE TX is 2 inches of snow or .12 of an inch of ice accumulation. Latest accumulation forecast of .10 to .25 of an inch of ice accumulation places us well within the warning criteria.
Will update this morning with a more detailed overview once I have had time to go over the short term models.
Watch is being upgraded to a warning this morning as confidence in the event happening increases and accumulation amounts are now better defined.
Winter Storm Warning is in effect for all SE TX counties from 900pm tonight until 900am Friday.
Winter Storm Watches SW and W of the area will be upgraded to warnings this morning.
Note: Winter Storm Warning criteria for SE TX is 2 inches of snow or .12 of an inch of ice accumulation. Latest accumulation forecast of .10 to .25 of an inch of ice accumulation places us well within the warning criteria.
Will update this morning with a more detailed overview once I have had time to go over the short term models.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
601 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING BRINGING
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR
NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING AND REACH THE COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PASSES TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
DROP AND THEN HOLD STEADY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES TEXAS TECH
WRF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE OF MODELS RUNS
DEVELOPING VERY LIGHT RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES STARTING EARLY
THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPANDING THE PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARDS. THE
HRRR ALSO SEEMS TO BE ON PAGE WITH THIS. THE TEXAS TECH KEEPS THE
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL MID FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS WITH THIS IDEA. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE PRECIP
GOING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL CAUSE MAJOR IMPACTS ACROSS OUR AREA. AS PRECIPITATION
BEGINS TO FALL THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
START TO COME DOWN. THIS COULD EASILY LET THE SURFACE TEMP START
TO WET BULB DOWN. THIS WOULD MEAN ICING COULD START AS EARLY AS
THIS AFTERNOON OFF TOWARDS OUR NORTHWEST. NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS AT COLLEGE
STATION AS EARLY AS 21Z TODAY. FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS EARLY AS 6Z FRIDAY.
FRIDAY MORNING SNOW COULD POSSIBLY MIX IN AT COLLEGE STATION.
BOTH NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW KCLL COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME DRY AIR TRYING
TO WORK ITS WAY IN AROUND 500MB. GALVESTON SHOULD ALSO FALL TO
FREEZING FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE THE CAUSEWAY EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS! HIGHWAYS... BRIDGES... AND OVERPASSES WILL BE EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
PLEASE AVOID TRAVEL AT ALL COST.
WE SHOULD START TO WARMUP A BIT THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH. 23
&&
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
601 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING BRINGING
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR
NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING AND REACH THE COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PASSES TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
DROP AND THEN HOLD STEADY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES TEXAS TECH
WRF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE OF MODELS RUNS
DEVELOPING VERY LIGHT RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES STARTING EARLY
THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPANDING THE PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARDS. THE
HRRR ALSO SEEMS TO BE ON PAGE WITH THIS. THE TEXAS TECH KEEPS THE
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL MID FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS WITH THIS IDEA. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE PRECIP
GOING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL CAUSE MAJOR IMPACTS ACROSS OUR AREA. AS PRECIPITATION
BEGINS TO FALL THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
START TO COME DOWN. THIS COULD EASILY LET THE SURFACE TEMP START
TO WET BULB DOWN. THIS WOULD MEAN ICING COULD START AS EARLY AS
THIS AFTERNOON OFF TOWARDS OUR NORTHWEST. NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BOTH SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS AT COLLEGE
STATION AS EARLY AS 21Z TODAY. FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS EARLY AS 6Z FRIDAY.
FRIDAY MORNING SNOW COULD POSSIBLY MIX IN AT COLLEGE STATION.
BOTH NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW KCLL COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME DRY AIR TRYING
TO WORK ITS WAY IN AROUND 500MB. GALVESTON SHOULD ALSO FALL TO
FREEZING FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE THE CAUSEWAY EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS! HIGHWAYS... BRIDGES... AND OVERPASSES WILL BE EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
PLEASE AVOID TRAVEL AT ALL COST.
WE SHOULD START TO WARMUP A BIT THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH. 23
&&
-
Portastorm
- Posts: 800
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
- Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
- Contact:
Looks like at least a half inch of wintry "slop" here in Austin ... that'll easily be enough to send traffic into chaos tonight.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
625 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...
.A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ENTERING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA BY MID
MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS ABOVE
THE COLD AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. EXPECT A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO
DEVELOP IN THE HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW TONIGHT.
ALONG THE I-35 AND HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDORS...A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WITH A TRACE TO ONE
HALF INCH ACROSS ADJACENT AREAS. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
90 WEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND I-10 EAST OF SAN ANTONIO MAY SEE ICE
AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAY TRANSITION BACK TO ALL RAIN JUST BEFORE
ENDING AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
TXZ171>173-183>190-232030-
/O.CAN.KEWX.WS.A.0001.140124T0600Z-140124T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.140123T1800Z-140124T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO
625 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON
CST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS CANCELLED
THE WINTER STORM WATCH.
* TIMING...THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
* MAIN IMPACT...ICE ACCUMULATION ON EXPOSED SURFACES THIS EVENING
THEN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* OTHER IMPACTS...ICY ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
&&
$$
TXZ191>194-206>208-232030-
/O.UPG.KEWX.WS.A.0001.140124T0600Z-140124T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.140124T0000Z-140124T1800Z/
HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...
GIDDINGS...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART
625 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* TIMING...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
* MAIN IMPACT...ICE ACCUMULATION ON EXPOSED SURFACES THIS EVENING
THEN UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* OTHER IMPACTS...ICY ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
&&
$$
TXZ202>205-209-217>225-228-232030-
/O.UPG.KEWX.WS.A.0001.140124T0600Z-140124T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.140124T0600Z-140124T1800Z/
KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-
WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...
SAN ANTONIO...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...PEARSALL...
PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...
HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
625 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* TIMING...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
* MAIN IMPACT...NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A TRACE TO
ONE QUARTER INCH OF SNOW OR TRACE ICE ACCUMULATION ON EXPOSED
SURFACES. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH.
* OTHER IMPACTS...ICY ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
&&
$$
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
625 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...
.A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ENTERING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA BY MID
MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS ABOVE
THE COLD AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. EXPECT A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO
DEVELOP IN THE HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW TONIGHT.
ALONG THE I-35 AND HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDORS...A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WITH A TRACE TO ONE
HALF INCH ACROSS ADJACENT AREAS. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
90 WEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND I-10 EAST OF SAN ANTONIO MAY SEE ICE
AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAY TRANSITION BACK TO ALL RAIN JUST BEFORE
ENDING AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
TXZ171>173-183>190-232030-
/O.CAN.KEWX.WS.A.0001.140124T0600Z-140124T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.140123T1800Z-140124T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO
625 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON
CST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS CANCELLED
THE WINTER STORM WATCH.
* TIMING...THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
* MAIN IMPACT...ICE ACCUMULATION ON EXPOSED SURFACES THIS EVENING
THEN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* OTHER IMPACTS...ICY ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
&&
$$
TXZ191>194-206>208-232030-
/O.UPG.KEWX.WS.A.0001.140124T0600Z-140124T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.140124T0000Z-140124T1800Z/
HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...
GIDDINGS...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART
625 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* TIMING...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
* MAIN IMPACT...ICE ACCUMULATION ON EXPOSED SURFACES THIS EVENING
THEN UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* OTHER IMPACTS...ICY ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
&&
$$
TXZ202>205-209-217>225-228-232030-
/O.UPG.KEWX.WS.A.0001.140124T0600Z-140124T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.140124T0600Z-140124T1800Z/
KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-
WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...
SAN ANTONIO...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...PEARSALL...
PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...
HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
625 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* TIMING...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
* MAIN IMPACT...NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A TRACE TO
ONE QUARTER INCH OF SNOW OR TRACE ICE ACCUMULATION ON EXPOSED
SURFACES. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH.
* OTHER IMPACTS...ICY ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
&&
$$
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Detailed Update from Jeff:
***Impactful winter storm event heading for SE TX.***
Winter Storm Warning in effect from 900pm tonight until 900am Friday for all counties.
Arctic cold front is moving southward through north TX this morning and will move off the coast early this afternoon. Initial wind shift will drop temperatures into the 40’s across the area before a secondary surge of much colder air arrives around dark this evening which is currently moving southward over OK and KS where temps are in the 10’s and 1’s. Short term models suggest northern tier counties could be very near freezing prior to sunset this evening so we could start to see some changeover of rain to freezing rain after 300pm in the College Station to Huntsville areas…but think roads will be ok until after sunset and then it is going to go downhill very quickly and spread southward across much of the area. Meso models are in decent agreement on breaking out light rain this afternoon from north to south across the region as lifting of a moistening air mass over the frontal dome occurs. Temperatures should fall to freezing at most locations by 300-400am Friday morning and the recovery on Friday will be very slow with temperatures not likely reaching freezing until around 1000am to noon if then. Warming on Friday will depend on the amount of precipitation that continues across the area.
P-type:
After reviewing the short term guidance forecast soundings for IAH, VCT, and CLL I see no big reason to change the P-type thinking of mostly freezing rain and sleet with mixed snow. Interestingly CLL soundings do fall almost entirely below freezing by 600am Friday morning which would suggest a changeover to mostly snow. Sounding is also saturated up to around 15,000ft but then dries aloft. Think the northern counties will start off as freezing rain early this evening then go over to a freezing rain and sleet mix then to a sleet and snow mix by Friday morning. Further south including metro Houston and the US 59 corridor expect rain to change to freezing rain around midnight and then a freezing rain and sleet mixture Friday morning. Toward the coast mainly just freezing rain with some sleet mixed in. This continues to look like an ice event over a snow event…but there will be plenty of mixing of precipitation across the region as thermal profiles change throughout the event.
Accumulations:
A little more concerned with accumulations this morning as the intruding dry air from the NE looks less than before and liquid QPF numbers have increased some overnight especially on the NAM model. Would like to see 00Z (600pm) soundings this evening to see how they are matching with the meso model trends…but I do not have that luxury 12 hours before they are launched. Upstream air mass is very cold and dry so I will leave that door open to a little more drier air getting in here than the models are showing and keeping accumulation amounts in the .10 to .20 range. Should there be less dry air accumulation amounts could be closer to .25 to .30 inches which becomes a little more concerning with respect to power outages and tree limbs. Amounts look greatest along the US 59 from Houston SW to Victoria and then southward toward the coast where the moisture will be greatest and the dry sub cloud layer least….or Fort Bend, Wharton, Jackson, and Victoria Counties.
Other item to consider is the amount of sleet mixing in which tends to lessen accumulations, but forms a more solid and crusty layer of ice similar to what happened in N TX in early December 2013. More snow would greatly increase accumulations into the ½ to 1.5 inch range…but this looks unlikely at the moment and if it occurred would be mainly NW of a line from Columbus to Conroe. Think any snow will be very wet and will likely only add to the icing accumulation.
Impacts:
Ice accumulation on bridge and overpasses looks likely tonight into much of Friday producing extremely dangerous travel conditions. TXDOT crews have been applying anti-ice chemical on freeways overnight. Extreme caution should be used at all bridges, overpasses, connector ramps, and flyovers after dark tonight through all day on Friday. Additional roadway treatments will likely be needed tonight into Friday. If you must travel…take surface streets with as few bridges as possible.
Airports will require de-icing operations of aircraft by this evening so expect long delays. Ice accumulation on aircraft control surfaces at departure gates and on runways is likely with heavy icing up through 5,000 ft in rapidly changing precipitation mixture through ascent.
Still think power outages will not be a big problem, but we are starting to get near the threshold on accumulation where the area could see some outages. Typically 1/4th of an inch of ice is the threshold to start to see power problems and ½ of an inch is when things really start to get bad. These outages would likely be focused north of I-10 in the pine forest areas which have the most surface area for ice to accumulate. Winds will also be gusty in the 20-30mph range which will add more weight and pressure to ice covered trees and power lines.
Next update: early afternoon
***Impactful winter storm event heading for SE TX.***
Winter Storm Warning in effect from 900pm tonight until 900am Friday for all counties.
Arctic cold front is moving southward through north TX this morning and will move off the coast early this afternoon. Initial wind shift will drop temperatures into the 40’s across the area before a secondary surge of much colder air arrives around dark this evening which is currently moving southward over OK and KS where temps are in the 10’s and 1’s. Short term models suggest northern tier counties could be very near freezing prior to sunset this evening so we could start to see some changeover of rain to freezing rain after 300pm in the College Station to Huntsville areas…but think roads will be ok until after sunset and then it is going to go downhill very quickly and spread southward across much of the area. Meso models are in decent agreement on breaking out light rain this afternoon from north to south across the region as lifting of a moistening air mass over the frontal dome occurs. Temperatures should fall to freezing at most locations by 300-400am Friday morning and the recovery on Friday will be very slow with temperatures not likely reaching freezing until around 1000am to noon if then. Warming on Friday will depend on the amount of precipitation that continues across the area.
P-type:
After reviewing the short term guidance forecast soundings for IAH, VCT, and CLL I see no big reason to change the P-type thinking of mostly freezing rain and sleet with mixed snow. Interestingly CLL soundings do fall almost entirely below freezing by 600am Friday morning which would suggest a changeover to mostly snow. Sounding is also saturated up to around 15,000ft but then dries aloft. Think the northern counties will start off as freezing rain early this evening then go over to a freezing rain and sleet mix then to a sleet and snow mix by Friday morning. Further south including metro Houston and the US 59 corridor expect rain to change to freezing rain around midnight and then a freezing rain and sleet mixture Friday morning. Toward the coast mainly just freezing rain with some sleet mixed in. This continues to look like an ice event over a snow event…but there will be plenty of mixing of precipitation across the region as thermal profiles change throughout the event.
Accumulations:
A little more concerned with accumulations this morning as the intruding dry air from the NE looks less than before and liquid QPF numbers have increased some overnight especially on the NAM model. Would like to see 00Z (600pm) soundings this evening to see how they are matching with the meso model trends…but I do not have that luxury 12 hours before they are launched. Upstream air mass is very cold and dry so I will leave that door open to a little more drier air getting in here than the models are showing and keeping accumulation amounts in the .10 to .20 range. Should there be less dry air accumulation amounts could be closer to .25 to .30 inches which becomes a little more concerning with respect to power outages and tree limbs. Amounts look greatest along the US 59 from Houston SW to Victoria and then southward toward the coast where the moisture will be greatest and the dry sub cloud layer least….or Fort Bend, Wharton, Jackson, and Victoria Counties.
Other item to consider is the amount of sleet mixing in which tends to lessen accumulations, but forms a more solid and crusty layer of ice similar to what happened in N TX in early December 2013. More snow would greatly increase accumulations into the ½ to 1.5 inch range…but this looks unlikely at the moment and if it occurred would be mainly NW of a line from Columbus to Conroe. Think any snow will be very wet and will likely only add to the icing accumulation.
Impacts:
Ice accumulation on bridge and overpasses looks likely tonight into much of Friday producing extremely dangerous travel conditions. TXDOT crews have been applying anti-ice chemical on freeways overnight. Extreme caution should be used at all bridges, overpasses, connector ramps, and flyovers after dark tonight through all day on Friday. Additional roadway treatments will likely be needed tonight into Friday. If you must travel…take surface streets with as few bridges as possible.
Airports will require de-icing operations of aircraft by this evening so expect long delays. Ice accumulation on aircraft control surfaces at departure gates and on runways is likely with heavy icing up through 5,000 ft in rapidly changing precipitation mixture through ascent.
Still think power outages will not be a big problem, but we are starting to get near the threshold on accumulation where the area could see some outages. Typically 1/4th of an inch of ice is the threshold to start to see power problems and ½ of an inch is when things really start to get bad. These outages would likely be focused north of I-10 in the pine forest areas which have the most surface area for ice to accumulate. Winds will also be gusty in the 20-30mph range which will add more weight and pressure to ice covered trees and power lines.
Next update: early afternoon
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity