January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[cperk]

Now they are showing 20% sleet/snow for Wednesday. That wasn't there 30 minutes ago... Ugh. Now it's gone. I'm not looking at it again until tomorrow.

I just checked and it's back again.

[Paul Robison]

If it's a freezing rain event, will we more than likely approach (exceed?) the .25 threshold that Jeff was worried about last week? What do the models say?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'm loving this Winter. I absolutely loathe hot weather so this is good for me until HELL hits us in May

[redneckweather]

Interesting to see this discussion after coming back from fishing the Trinity River today.

I second that. If our area gets some decent sknow totals with this next one, it will take a few days for it to completely melt. In fact, snow was still in the woods before I got to Huntsville and all the way to Centerville. Rooftops still had snow on them as well and it was 50 degress outside.

[Paul Robison]

Interesting to see this discussion after coming back from fishing the Trinity River today.

I second that. If our area gets some decent sknow totals with this next one, it will take a few days for it to completely melt. In fact, snow was still in the woods before I got to Huntsville and all the way to Centerville. Rooftops still had snow on them as well and it was 50 degress outside.

Well, at least I'll be reminded of home!

[jeff]

I am not completely sure we will see anything just yet. The dry air may win out more this time around. If we do end up with enough moisture sleet and snow look more likely than ZR. Still would make a mess of the roads as it falls and melts then re-freezes, but would not be as worried about power.

[djmike]

NWS/LCH feels confident! Here is what's forecasted for Beaumont!

releax.PNG (102.76 KiB) Viewed 6958 times

[Baseballdude2915]

So much uncertainty, hard to start thinking of possible amounts and areas affected. All we know at this point is we will have a deeper airmass moving in Monday afternoon with the possibility of overrunning precip Tuesday-Wednesday Morning. Exciting that its only 3-4 days out. Like Jeff said, dry air might be our killer. Thinking late tomorrow night when the 00z comes in, that's when models should come to an better agreement on solutions.

[nuby3]

I noticed that at weather.gov, the better chance pops are closer to the coast. only 20% chance for snow Tuesday night in the woodlands, but 20% Tuesday and 30% Tuesday night for dwntwn Houston. 20% sleet/snow Tuesday and 30% sleet/snow Tuesday night for Galveston

[cristina6871]

I'm with MontgomeryCoWx - I'm loving this weather. Someone mentioned the 1973 event....surely it's not possible for that to happen with this next artic blast....not that I wouldn't welcome it. It surely has been several years since we've had this much winter weather....the more cold weather, the more delay for "face of the sun" heat that will eventually get us.

[TexasMetBlake]

Here is the 18z NAM. This will definitely bring a smile to your face.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... mageSize=M

Keep in mind that you have to take what you see in the grids and on forecast charts with a grain of salt. As we saw with the last event, everybody thought the dry air would be too much for the moisture to overcome and therefore most of the very light precip would be confined to the coast. In reality, decent banding set up between College Station and Livingston---enough to drop 4 inches of snow near Lake Livingston....and to think San Jacinto and Polk counties weren't even in the Winter Storm Watch to begin with. We're not going to know much until the event gets underway and we see where the banding sets up.

[mcheer23]

This is going to be a very interesting 24-36 hours to watch the models. Looks like the main event may be east of baton rouge toward new orleans-mobile and pensacola. As far as Texas goes south of I-10...too much uncertainty...

[mcheer23]

Lol. Look at the models I'm stating what I'm seeing. Yes the 00z NAM probably overdid the precip totals a great deal but shows a 6-10 inch bulls-eye between mobile and dothan alabama. Still shows a good inch or 2 over Houston. Like I said in the last post....The next 24-36 hours are very critical. Too much uncertainty.

[Baseballdude2915]

00z GFS to my untrained eye says we aren't quite ideal enough to support all snow. More sleet and rain than snow. Magic 540 line a bit north than we would like it...still a icy scenario though as we will have similar if not colder temps than this past event. Good news is we now have good consistency on some precip after the cold shoots down Monday afternoon... this certainy bears watching right until the event actually begins to set up.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/leads_images ... DS_066.gif

And a nice weekend into the 70s to follow it up, Wxman only has to suffer for a couple more days.

[TexasMetBlake]

00z GFS to my untrained eye says we aren't quite ideal enough to support all snow. More sleet and rain than snow. Magic 540 line a bit north than we would like it...still a icy scenario though as we will have similar if not colder temps than this past event. Good news is we now have good consistency on some precip after the cold shoots down Monday afternoon... this certainy bears watching right until the event actually begins to set up.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/leads_images ... DS_066.gif

And a nice weekend into the 70s to follow it up, Wxman only has to suffer for a couple more days.

Well you have to remember there is more to the equation than just the 1000-500 mb thickness values. The very nature of *arctic* air is for it to be very shallow. I'd keep a closer eye to the 10m temps than the thickness values.

[stormlover]

Doesn't matter about the 540 line, arctic air is shallow and models hAve a hard time with it, this will be colder than last week system so temperature wise we will be ok

[srainhoutx]

A very challenging forecast is ahead across the Southern Half of Texas into Louisiana from Tuesday into early Wednesday. First things first...we have one more day of warmer and quiet weather on tap for Sunday. Get out and enjoy the day because major changes are lurking for Monday.

Early on Monday a shot of Arctic air drops S across our Region. The front should push off the Coast by mid day or early afternoon. Cold air advection with brisk Northerly winds should usher in well below normal temperatures across our Region over night on Monday with a freeze likely Early Tuesday. The fly in the ointment arrives Tuesday morning in tthe form of a 700MB low dropping S from the Southern Rockies as the northerly flow continues. Meanwhile to our W, a 500MB upper air disturbance drops S from the Great Basin/California area into the Baja Region. There continues to be developing convection just W of Mexico that adds to the mix of a sub tropical jet which appears to be rather noisy with embedded pieces of energy spreading E across Mexico across Central and Coastal Texas into Louisiana and on E. Some off the models eject and shear out the upper low to our W as it slides E toward Texas while other models suggest this feature will cut off and become closed core and slowly meander beyond mid next week. The challenge is the available mid/uppr level moisture and does over running precip develop. The spread of the availablemoisture reaching the surface ranges from a couple of hundredths to .10 to .25+ of QPF. The profiles seem to suggest a mix of sleet and snow developing along and just N of the I-10 Corridor around mid day Tuesday and continuing until early Wednesday. Along the Coastal Counties, a wintry mix of freezing rain/sleet and snow may possible where temperature are a little 'warmer'. This same situation extends E into Louisiana including the New Orleans area. The forecast is very uncertain and expect changes as we move closer to the event and more data becomes available regarding the eventual evolution of the short wave/upper air energy crossing Mexico as well as other subtle features that we just do not know at this hour. The WPC as a chance of snow from about the I-35 Corridor near Austin and Marble Falls on S to the Coastal tier of Counties Counties and Parishes where there is a chance of freezing rain and sleet mix. Stay Tuned and expect changes in the evolving Winter Weather event!

[wxman57]

All 3 global models (Euro, GFS, CMC) predict significant snow Tuesday from the Texas coast through the FL Panhandle. NAM does, too, by the way. Generally 1-3". That's the only good use for cold. It's rare to see such good agreement on a snow event. We may really have a shot at snow on Tuesday...

[randybpt]

Wxman , you do know what you just started?
I never have seen you that confident in snow!
So just for giggles if you were to GUESS what's the line for 1-3 inches
A friend who is a local met said we have a good chance
Of seeing 1-2 here in Beaumont

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I hope Conroe can get in on this but fear we may be on the far northern edge