January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:04 pm

That's for tomorrow, not tomorrow night.

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:05 pm

I haven't heard much about Brazoria County. What can we expect in Angleton?

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:07 pm

Charlster wrote:I haven't heard much about Brazoria County. What can we expect in Angleton?

Freezing rain and sleet most likely

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:13 pm

sambucol wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Its gotta work on it sometime. Those returns are building. So it begins.
What does that mean? More precip? Thanks.

Sorry, it was in reply to Portastorm's report. He confirmed that virga was 'falling.' Virga will moisten the atmosphere.

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:22 pm

Judging from radar and the temp drop rate, this might be in and out before temps ever reach freezing. Quick moving. GFS .04'' amount of precip for Hooks airport and falling each run. Trace by morning...

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:23 pm

more moisture showing up on radar now

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:30 pm

mexico. looks like plenty of time still for the cold air to come to me

http://www.accuweather.com/en/mx/national/satellite

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:39 pm

During this time, I am going to remind folks to watch the models. Ask the pro mets questions, but be patient with them. They are busy during this time of an event. We are honored and pleased they are here. Their information and wisdom are welcomed. This is an ever changing event and it will take time for it to unfold. Winter weather in Texas is tricky to forecast. Stay tuned here and at the NWS for further updates. Also, Wxman 57 mentioned many pages ago that UH is sending up sounding balloons at noon tomorrow. That will help tremendously.

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:41 pm

Portastorm reports sprinkles now in SW Austin. That's interesting...moisture wasn't suppose to start falling according to the models until the very early hours of tomorrow morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CIGS ABOVE BKN090. A MIX
OF SHRA/SN/IP CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z WHICH MAY CAUSE
A LOWERING OF CIGS TO BKN035-060. WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP AT TAF
SITES DUE TO PROBS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE MENTION IN LATER TAFS. A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING INTO AREA WILL CREATE NLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TUESDAY EVENING.

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:47 pm

FWIW, there is a very fine mist falling in Kingwood at my location

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:48 pm

jgreak wrote:FWIW, there is a very fine mist falling in Kingwood at my location

Agree I'm on bens branch

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:49 pm

tireman4 wrote:During this time, I am going to remind folks to watch the models. Ask the pro mets questions, but be patient with them. They are busy during this time of an event. We are honored and pleased they are here. Their information and wisdom are welcomed. This is an ever changing event and it will take time for it to unfold. Winter weather in Texas is tricky to forecast. Stay tuned here and at the NWS for further updates. Also, Wxman 57 mentioned many pages ago that UH is sending up sounding balloons at noon tomorrow. That will help tremendously.

What good is that going to do? The event should be ongoing by then and we should already have an idea of how things will play out. I would think

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:50 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Portastorm reports sprinkles now in SW Austin. That's interesting...moisture wasn't suppose to start falling according to the models until the very early hours of tomorrow morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CIGS ABOVE BKN090. A MIX
OF SHRA/SN/IP CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z WHICH MAY CAUSE
A LOWERING OF CIGS TO BKN035-060. WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP AT TAF
SITES DUE TO PROBS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE MENTION IN LATER TAFS. A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING INTO AREA WILL CREATE NLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TUESDAY EVENING.

It shows we still have a long to go when it comes to forecasting. For Houston area, it is winter weather, which is a rarity.

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:52 pm

dallas 33F Fairfield 37F Centreville 44F

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:52 pm

Kingwood31 wrote:
jgreak wrote:FWIW, there is a very fine mist falling in Kingwood at my location
Agree I'm on bens branch

Mills Branch here...hey neighbor

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:53 pm

His answer to me was ( and he is the expert here) was...

They will give us an idea whether the model projections of the warm nose were correct.

We did not have that information during the 2011 event....

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:55 pm

Weather Service sticking to their guns high of 29 just north of Beaumont with freezing rain in the morning then sleet and snow likely after noon...why so different outlook than I see being thrown around on this forum for Houston???

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:56 pm

jgreak wrote:
Kingwood31 wrote:
jgreak wrote:FWIW, there is a very fine mist falling in Kingwood at my location
Agree I'm on bens branch
Mills Branch here...hey neighbor

Howdy! Nice to see someone else from kingwood on here! U ready for some ice!

Mon Jan 27, 2014 7:08 pm

Game Time. sleet south of San Angelo

Mon Jan 27, 2014 7:15 pm

Looks like hi-res NAM is doing the best job so far, especially on picking up on that early precip in West Texas.

January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

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