February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month

[wthrwave]

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=1920

Posted some shots from todays snow.

[nuby3]

can't help but notice the hard freeze warnings Beaumont area from lake Charles NWS. forecast of 26 for a spot less than a mile from somewhere in our watch area that has a low of 30

Batson, Tx. currently sitting at 32 with a forecasted high this morning of 41 and now forecasted for a low of 30 tomorrow morning.

[Kingwood31]

From David's fb....


More sleet tonight and Friday morning?? Futuretrack is suggesting we may see a repeat of this mornings sleet and 'graupel' in some spots. Updates at 4-5-6-10! Thanks 'Jill' in Cypress for the pic!

[nuby3]

from weather.gov

Friday : A slight chance of freezing drizzle before noon, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.

Friday Night : A 30 percent chance of rain or drizzle before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

[TexasMetBlake]

Heads up...NWS flirting with idea of issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for western and northern counties. FWD has already issued one for their southern teir of counties.

[Kingwood31]

Heads up...NWS flirting with idea of issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for western and northern counties. FWD has already issued one for their southern teir of counties.

For here or Dallas?

[davidiowx]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 062146
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NEXT SHORTWAVE ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF TX FRI AFTN/EVNG CAN BE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN
CALIFORNIA. AS IT APPROACHES, EXPECT LLVLS BETWEEN 1000-8000 FT
TO GRADUALLY SATURATE THRU THE NIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING (GENERALLY
WSW TO ENE). FCST SOUNDINGS ARE BORDERLINE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRIZZLE/NO DRIZZLE AFTER 3 AM. SHOULD ANY OCCUR WITH SFC TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING IT COULD VERY WELL POSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
(REMEMBER 1ST WINTER WX EVENT WITH FREEZING FOG? - THOSE TYPE
ISSUES). GOING TO HOLD OFF ON ADVSY ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE &
LOW CHANCES. HAVE SOME TIME TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE MAKING FINAL
DECISION RATHER THAN BLANKETING EVERYONE. WILL RECOMMEND ANYONE
THAT HAS TO MAKE A WX RELATED DECISION TO CHECK THE LATEST INFO BY
430AM.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTN/EVENING AS
LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF MAIN SHORTWAVE. GOOD
PART OF THAT AREA SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AT THAT TIME.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS & WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS MON-WED REGARDING THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TODAYS ECMWF LOOKS
LIKE YDAYS FASTER GFS. GFS LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER
ECMWF. PRETTY MUCH LEFT FCST THE SAME BEYOND SUNDAY UNTIL WE SEE
SOME CONSISTENCY. STILL LOOKS DAMP REGARDLESS - JUST A MATTER OF
TIMING. 47

[nuby3]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
356 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014

...COLD TEMPERATURES AND A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... A
ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83.
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IN ADDITION... THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON ROADWAYS AND TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE IMPACTED FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO LIQUID BY NOON. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 71 COULD SEE WINTRY PRECIPITATION LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

[nuby3]

I see precip chance in the forecast through tomorrow night now. with a forecasted high of 35. no way, in my opinion, with a dewpoint of 25 and precip heading this way and lows in the mid twenties forecasted to my east and frozen precip forecasted to my west and a north wind blowing over fresh snow to my north do I get above freezing tomorrow. but we will see. I'm going by observation and not computers

[don]

18Z GFS looks interesting hours 132-138...

[cperk]

18Z GFS looks interesting hours 132-138...

Care to elaborate.

[don]

shows temperatures in the mid to low 30's with a lot of moisture moving through. Of course it could just be a fluke run.

[cperk]

shows temperatures in the mid to low 30's with a lot of moisture moving through. Of course it could just be a fluke run.

Thanks Don.

[Andrew]

Looking at some observations out west, it looks like a localized jet streak is rotating around the base of the shortwave and could help amplify it farther south than originally expected. The jet is weakening upstream of the wave, but has proven stronger than originally anticipated. Should be interesting to see how far it can dig as it transitions east.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

A slight chance of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain Friday morning into midday along a west of a line from Victoria to Sealy to Huntsville.

Bitter cold arctic cold dome is firmly entrenched across the area this evening with sub-freezing temperatures extending from Livingston to Conroe to Columbus…in fact College Station has been at or below freezing for 22 hours straight. Upstream air temperatures are 24 at Dallas and 15 at Abilene with a large portion of the state at or below freezing which is putting some strain on the power supply system.

While the next disturbance aloft will not arrive into the area until Friday afternoon, increasing moisture advection will result in slow saturation of the mid and low levels from the top down early Friday morning. Short term HRRR and WRF models show very light QPF (precipitation) breaking out from favorable but general isentropic lifting in an arcing band from near Rockport to Columbus to Huntsville in the 300-600am time period. With dewpoints in the low to mid 20’s there is dry air to be overcome at the surface and unlike this morning there is not strong incoming lift until Friday afternoon. While surface temperatures will be cold enough for freezing drizzle the actual chance of the drizzle occurring is fairly low.

However if the drizzle does indeed develop especially in the above mentioned corridor where surface temperatures are in the mid to upper 20’s ice formation on bridges and overpasses is likely and road surfaces have now been cooled by many hours near/below freezing. Think the best chance of freezing drizzle and ice formation will be along the I-35 corridor from San Antonio to Dallas starting early Friday and continuing much of the day.

Due to the current uncertainties WFO Houston is holding off on any advisories at this time, but this may change late this evening or very early Friday morning with portions of our W and NW counties possibly requiring yet another Winter Weather Advisory. Caution should be used on any bridges and overpasses Friday if traveling west and north of Houston and especially across central and north TX.

For Houston metro: while surface temperatures look to fall into the 29-31 degree range across Harris County early Friday, expect drizzle/light rain to hold off until late enough in the morning Friday to allow temperatures to creep back to 32-34 degrees.

Note: given thickening/lowering clouds decks and developing light rain and drizzle on Friday along with continued cold air drainage from snow covered north TX, highs will only reach the mid 30’s and some locations may hover near freezing all day into Saturday morning. Would not be surprised if some locations from College Station to Livingston approach 36-42 hours straight below freezing.

This morning’s winter weather was the 4th time this winter season that winter precipitation has fallen in SE TX.

Will update again this evening if there are any changes to the current thinking or issuance of any advisories.

[Ptarmigan]

I have never seen so much winter precipitation in one winter. Not even 1973 or 1985 compare. 1973 was El Nino, while 1985 was La Nina.

I suspect there have winters with this many winter precipitation in the past and were recorded, but got lost over time.

[nuby3]

water vapor loops

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

[Paul Robison]

shows temperatures in the mid to low 30's with a lot of moisture moving through. Of course it could just be a fluke run.

Near miss, verbatim, about 2ºF too warm, on the mother of all ice storms. Not just slippery highway and wreck ice storms, Paul Robison style trees crashing down on power line type ice storm.

Did I mention my wife and kids have lost President's Day and Memorial Day already?

At this point, just a one off, but not completely different from the 12Z GFS, cool off and rain, just more rain and a bigger cool off, so it falls into the watch and see category.

URGENT: Read this from ERCOT!


Media Advisory for the Rio Grande Valley area



Valley area consumers asked to conserve electricity due to extreme cold, system limitations

AUSTIN, TX, Feb. 6, 2014 – The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), grid operator for most of Texas, is asking electric consumers in the Rio Grande Valley region to reduce electric use from 5 p.m. today through noon on Friday, Feb. 7.

“In addition to the high demands associated with the cold weather, the transmission system’s ability to send power to the region is currently reduced due to a planned outage on a line that serves the Valley,” said Dan Woodfin, ERCOT director of System Operations. “That line, which is being rebuilt to increase capacity to serve the Valley region, cannot be returned to service in time to serve expected power demands tonight and tomorrow morning.”

Consumers can help ensure the system is able to continue serving current power needs by taking the following steps to reduce demand on the system tonight and tomorrow morning:
■Keep your thermostat as low as is comfortable, preferably no higher than 68 degrees.
■Turn off and unplug non-essential lights and appliances.
■Avoid running large appliances such as washers, dryers and electric ovens during peak energy demand hours (6-9 a.m. and 4-8 p.m.).
■Close shades and blinds at night to reduce the amount of heat lost through windows.
■Large consumers of electricity should consider shutting down or reducing non-essential production processes.

ERCOT peak demand this morning exceeded 57,000 megawatts (MW) and could reach or break its 57,277 MW record before the current winter weather leaves the region. The ERCOT grid is not experiencing any systemwide issues.

“This is a precautionary measure to help ensure we can maintain overall reliability in the Valley during this high-demand period,” said Woodfin.



Consumers asked to conserve electricity due to extreme cold, limited generation



AUSTIN, TX, Feb. 6, 2014 – The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), grid operator for most of Texas, is asking electric consumers to reduce electric use from 5 p.m. today through noon on Friday, Feb. 7.

“With the cold weather that began last night, we already saw electric demand close to our winter record this morning,” said Dan Woodfin, ERCOT director of System Operations. “We are expecting cold weather to continue through tomorrow morning’s high demand period, and some generation capacity has become unavailable due to limitations to natural gas supplies.”

Consumers can help ensure the system is able to continue serving current power needs by taking the following steps to reduce demand on the system tonight and tomorrow morning:
■Keep your thermostat as low as is comfortable, preferably no higher than 68 degrees.
■Turn off and unplug non-essential lights and appliances.
■Avoid running large appliances such as washers, dryers and electric ovens during peak energy demand hours (6-9 a.m. and 4-8 p.m.).
■Close shades and blinds at night to reduce the amount of heat lost through windows.
■Large consumers of electricity should consider shutting down or reducing non-essential production processes.
■Businesses should minimize the use of electric lighting and electricity-consuming equipment as much as possible.

ERCOT peak demand this morning exceeded 57,000 megawatts (MW) and could reach or break its 57,277 MW record before the current winter weather leaves the region.

“This is a precautionary measure to help ensure we can maintain overall reliability through this high-demand period,” said Woodfin.


No laughing matter, ya'll. We have a full blown energy crisis thanx to Old Man Winter. Everyone may wake up in the dark tomorrow morning.

Please Stand By.

[nuby3]

“This is a precautionary measure to help ensure we can maintain overall reliability through this high-demand period,”

see?? last line of your very own post. nothing to worry about. just staying ahead of the game and being on the safe side.

[Paul Robison]

“This is a precautionary measure to help ensure we can maintain overall reliability through this high-demand period,”

see?? last line of your very own post. nothing to worry about. just staying ahead of the game and being on the safe side.

ERCOT has not issued an honest-to-gosh Level 1 alert then, Nuby 3?

BTW: They DID say they were running low on natural gas, remember?