INVEST 94L: Across The Eastern Atlantic

[srainhoutx]

There are at least two easterly waves that are worth monitoring, one that is offshore of Africa and another nearing Western Africa that may combine and track fairly far S along the ITCZ along or just S of 10N. The ensembles are suggesting that as the waves passed 40 and near 50W, the chances of TC genesis could possibly increase. Check back tomorrow and see if the convection is still active as these waves move W around 20 MPH. There is still a good bit of dust across the MDR and convection would need to remain attached to the ITCZ to survive the trek across the Atlantic in the short term. 94L has been designated for this disturbance.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests 94L will remain rather weak, but does keep the convection attached to the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) as it passes 50W. That GFS is suggesting vorticity increases as it passes through the Windward Islands and enters the Caribbean Sea next Sunday into next Monday.

[cperk]

srainhoutx this may be our first long tracker.Dr Masters said we need to watch this one.

[Paul Robison]

srainhoutx this may be our first long tracker.Dr Masters said we need to watch this one.

Dumb question but:

Could this turn into another big threat to the lone star state a la Hurricane Allen (1980)? Is a SE Texas landfall a likelihood?

[cperk]

srainhoutx this may be our first long tracker.Dr Masters said we need to watch this one.

Dumb question but:

Could this turn into another big threat to the lone star state a la Hurricane Allen (1980)? Is a SE Texas landfall a likelihood?

Way too early to pinpoint a landfall,if it develops we should get a better idea of where it's headed by next weekend as it enters the Caribbean.

[Paul Robison]

srainhoutx this may be our first long tracker.Dr Masters said we need to watch this one.

Dumb question but:

Could this turn into another big threat to the lone star state a la Hurricane Allen (1980)? Is a SE Texas landfall a likelihood?

Way too early to pinpoint a landfall,if it develops we should get a better idea of where it's headed by next weekend as it enters the Caribbean.

18z GFS run did show a landfall in the Brownsville/Corpus Christi region, didn't it?

[cperk]

The 18z GFS loses 94l at 180 hours.We need to be patient and wait to see if it develops.

[srainhoutx]

Convection associated with 94L is confined well to the S (below 10N along the monsoonal trough/ITCZ) of the surface analysis of the low center. Dust continues to be an issue N of the disturbance, but further W and closer to the Windward Islands that becomes less of an issue. Yet another easterly wave is nearing the Atlantic from Western Africa and should drop SW as it continues westward today. MIMIC does show a rather robust precipitable water envelope associated with 94L. The only global guidance indicating any potential of TC genesis is the UKMET and that occur later in the period as 94L enters the Caribbean Saturday night into Sunday. The global guidance does suggest the Bermuda Ridge may build back W and allow this disturbance to continue tracking W across the Caribbean Sea into mid next week. There is no threat of development in the near term as of this time.