December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible

[harpman]

What are the chances of that arctic air bleeding east into Louisiana? Any thoughts?

[wxman57]

What are the chances of that arctic air bleeding east into Louisiana? Any thoughts?

Highly unlikely. I've seen this pattern many times in my 35 years working as a meteorologist here in Houston. The models had the right idea last week (sub-freezing with precip) and now they've lost the event. The Euro doesn't even have a freeze in Dallas through 10 days. Ridiculous. The models will start to catch on in a couple of days. The Arctic air will plunge southward so fast that it may reach Brownsville before it edges east to Houston. And the front won't back up through Texas as a warm front as per the GFS/ECMWF. They always make that mistake with Arctic air. Expect freezing/frozen precip much farther south than the models are currently indicating.

[harpman]

What are the chances of that arctic air bleeding east into Louisiana? Any thoughts?

Highly unlikely. I've seen this pattern many times in my 35 years working as a meteorologist here in Houston. The models had the right idea last week (sub-freezing with precip) and now they've lost the event. The Euro doesn't even have a freeze in Dallas through 10 days. Ridiculous. The models will start to catch on in a couple of days. The Arctic air will plunge southward so fast that it may reach Brownsville before it edges east to Houston. And the front won't back up through Texas as a warm front as per the GFS/ECMWF. They always make that mistake with Arctic air. Expect freezing/frozen precip much farther south than the models are currently indicating.

So, it will not move east into La? the current mid Carribean ridge will block the cold air from moving east?

[BlueJay]

Sounds like we all need to stay tuned...and be ready to bring in/cover all the plants very soon.

[wxman57]

This type of Arctic air intrusion often has a hard time reaching SE Louisiana, at least with any significant intensity. It may get colder in Brownsville than in New Orleans, for example.

[harpman]

This type of Arctic air intrusion often has a hard time reaching SE Louisiana, at least with any significant intensity. It may get colder in Brownsville than in New Orleans, for example.

Ok, thanks. I guess time will tell.

[cperk]

What are the chances of that arctic air bleeding east into Louisiana? Any thoughts?

Highly unlikely. I've seen this pattern many times in my 35 years working as a meteorologist here in Houston. The models had the right idea last week (sub-freezing with precip) and now they've lost the event. The Euro doesn't even have a freeze in Dallas through 10 days. Ridiculous. The models will start to catch on in a couple of days. The Arctic air will plunge southward so fast that it may reach Brownsville before it edges east to Houston. And the front won't back up through Texas as a warm front as per the GFS/ECMWF. They always make that mistake with Arctic air. Expect freezing/frozen precip much farther south than the models are currently indicating.

Will the weather services have enough time to fine tune their forecasts and issue watches and warnings if necessary.

[jeff]

What are the chances of that arctic air bleeding east into Louisiana? Any thoughts?

Highly unlikely. I've seen this pattern many times in my 35 years working as a meteorologist here in Houston. The models had the right idea last week (sub-freezing with precip) and now they've lost the event. The Euro doesn't even have a freeze in Dallas through 10 days. Ridiculous. The models will start to catch on in a couple of days. The Arctic air will plunge southward so fast that it may reach Brownsville before it edges east to Houston. And the front won't back up through Texas as a warm front as per the GFS/ECMWF. They always make that mistake with Arctic air. Expect freezing/frozen precip much farther south than the models are currently indicating.

Will the weather services have enough time to fine tune their forecasts and issue watches and warnings if necessary.

There is plenty of time for any watches to be issued...if in fact any watches need to be issued.

[unome]

easy to keep an eye on Southern Region graphicasts here: http://innovation.srh.noaa.gov/ROC/gcastgis/

& Facebook Monitor here: http://innovation.srh.noaa.gov/ROC/srFBmonitor/

[skidog40]

New Year Watch

[Snowman]

What are the chances of that arctic air bleeding east into Louisiana? Any thoughts?

Highly unlikely. I've seen this pattern many times in my 35 years working as a meteorologist here in Houston. The models had the right idea last week (sub-freezing with precip) and now they've lost the event. The Euro doesn't even have a freeze in Dallas through 10 days. Ridiculous. The models will start to catch on in a couple of days. The Arctic air will plunge southward so fast that it may reach Brownsville before it edges east to Houston. And the front won't back up through Texas as a warm front as per the GFS/ECMWF. They always make that mistake with Arctic air. Expect freezing/frozen precip much farther south than the models are currently indicating.

I will be in Austin for New Years and I was wondering what the chances are for frozen precip there? It really looks like the models have backed off on the cold and precip. I trust you and your 35 years of experience more than the models though.

[unome]

nothing like a muggy 70 degree night in late Dec to make the next cold front feel even colder

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDWH.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/

it's snowing in Lubbock right now... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/

winter weather advisory http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... 20advisory

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/cu ... radar.html

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdepd

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1216 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

VALID 12Z TUE DEC 30 2014 - 12Z SAT JAN 03 2015


...ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE EAST AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE...

AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO
DELIVER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE, WITH A SIZABLE CHUNK FORCED ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, GREAT BASIN, AND EVEN AREAS ON
THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE CASCADES. THE GREATEST THERMAL ANOMALIES
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE DAY, FOLLOWING
THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AS THE BIG SURFACE HIGH OOZES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS--ALL THE WAY TO WESTERN TEXAS BY
MID PERIOD. THOUGH NOT ARCTIC AIR, A CLOSING OF THE UPPER FLOW
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WOULD FOCUS COLD
IN THOSE REGIONS, WITH REMARKABLY LOW SNOW LEVELS IN THE TERRAIN
TO THE EAST OF LOS ANGELES AND SAN DIEGO IF THE VORTEX SPINS UP
THERE. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DRIVES THE VORTEX OFFSHORE--A MUCH
MILDER OUTCOME.

SOME OF THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST, REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. WHEN PART OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH FINALLY BREAKS OFF AND EJECTS EASTWARD DAYS 6
AND 7, THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS APT TO BE
IN WINTRY FORM--SNOW, SLEET, OR FREEZING RAIN. MUCH AND MORE NEEDS
TO SHAKE OUT IN THE GUIDANCE BEFORE DETERMINING WHERE THE SNOW AND
ICE STRIPE IS PAINTED. FOR THIS FORECAST, RELIED LARGELY ON THE
EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES, WITH A
BLEND OF THE ECENS MEAN, NAEFS MEAN, AND GMOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
GRIDS.


CISCO

[ndale]

What are the chances of that arctic air bleeding east into Louisiana? Any thoughts?

Highly unlikely. I've seen this pattern many times in my 35 years working as a meteorologist here in Houston. The models had the right idea last week (sub-freezing with precip) and now they've lost the event. The Euro doesn't even have a freeze in Dallas through 10 days. Ridiculous. The models will start to catch on in a couple of days. The Arctic air will plunge southward so fast that it may reach Brownsville before it edges east to Houston. And the front won't back up through Texas as a warm front as per the GFS/ECMWF. They always make that mistake with Arctic air. Expect freezing/frozen precip much farther south than the models are currently indicating.

I will be in Austin for New Years and I was wondering what the chances are for frozen precip there? It really looks like the models have backed off on the cold and precip. I trust you and your 35 years of experience more than the models though.

I am not Wxman57 but this is what the San Antonio/Austin forecast office is thinking about that timeframe, "AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND THEN ENTERING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING FORWARD
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE INTERESTING AND CHALLENGING PART OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
COMES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THESE FORECAST PERIODS...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER TYPE
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT...WILL MENTION FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE AREAS ABOVE MENTIONED. HOWEVER...STILL DAYS AWAY BEFORE THIS
WINTER EVENT UNFOLDS. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE ARE DOING A BETTER JOB
WITH THIS EVENT THIS MORNING VERSUS 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WILL BE
MONITORING CLOSELY AND ADJUSTING THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY AS NEW
MODEL DATA AND HIRES SOLUTIONS ARE AVAILABLE."

Which means right now they are only predicting cold rain for Austin.

[Portastorm]

The cold front is through Austin and it appears it'll be a chilly, raw day. Temps have dropped from mid 50s into upper 40s in just two hours. Light rain and a north wind too.

[snowman65]

We will be in austin for new years also....give me snow or give me bluebird skues....only 2 choices.....thanks.

[Kludge]

This front really got angry just as it entered Grimes County. Heavy downpours and frequent C2G lightning. Up to about half an inch already. 68 to 48 degrees in less than 45 minutes.

Another wake-up-in-Spring, go-to-bed-in-Winter day. I'm not a fan of roller coasters.

[Ptarmigan]

This front really got angry just as it entered Grimes County. Heavy downpours and frequent C2G lightning. Up to about half an inch already. 68 to 48 degrees in less than 45 minutes.

Another wake-up-in-Spring, go-to-bed-in-Winter day. I'm not a fan of roller coasters.

It always happen, when a strong cold front is approaching. Warm one moment and cold the next.

[TexasBreeze]

It is snowing in North Texas today. That has come as a suprise. The models can't even get things 24 hrs right let alone 5 days. The models strength of the high is amazing and going south....

[Katdaddy]

50F in Conroe and 77F in Pearland. A 27F temp difference across the Houston area. A line of thunderstorms across Houston have intensified some during the past hour but nothing severe.

Its cold up here in Roanoke N of Ft Worth. No Winter precip though The Winter precip was 2 counties to the NW. I am hoping next week will much more interesting for NTX.

[srainhoutx]

It was 72F at the house just before the heavy rain and lightning hit. Unfortunately I was out running some last minute errands before a small dinner party and got soaked to bone. Temperature has dropped to 50F now here in NW Harris County. Andrew sent a text earlier from Lubbock where a 20% chance of very light sleet or snow flurries were forecast and the snow that was not forecasted in Wichita Falls stuck. Me thinks there may be a little too much model hugging going on across our Region...

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This was from Ski Taos this morning where 24 inches of fresh powder accumulated the past 5 days and much more on the way.