December 2014: New Year's Eve Wintry Mix Possible

[srainhoutx]

It appears we are going to be stuck with this low cloud deck across Eastern Texas and Louisiana all day. In fact if you loop the visible imagery you can see the low cloud deck easing slowly back West.

[ndale]

I noticed that TWC has changed Austins (actually Spicewood where I will be) new years weather from straight rain to an ice/rain event and have lowered the high temps to 35ish....

And I believe you're going to see more of that trend ... to a point where the entire I-35 corridor north of I-10 is at threat for wintry precip Wed-Thurs. Temps will continue to be ramped down. We don't get 1050mb+ highs coming down the lee side of the Rockies into Texas and mid 30s for temps. Guidance is still too warm IMO.

The weather service has my area in north Austin right on the dividing line of rain/freezing rain with me on the rain side. I agree with Portastorm that should trend downward. It would not surprise me to see the whole Austin metro area forecasted for freezing rain as this continues to develop.

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This is my opionion only and not a forecast, for that refer to the National Weather Service.

[Portastorm]

Quick case in point on why I continue to believe the GFS is underestimating temps with the Arctic airmass coming. Right now, Goodland, KS, is sitting 16 degrees. The 0z and even the most recent 12z GFS runs show Goodland to be at 22 degrees at this hour. So, it's 6 degrees off and the real brunt of the Arctic airmass hasn't even reached them yet!

[BlueJay]

I know some folks who will be attending the UH Cougar football game in Fort Worth this Friday. The game is at 11:00 a.m. Will they be able to even get to and from Fort Worth safely?

[tx_kingwood32]

It's looking like a north tx and maybe Austin event..I don't think we will have a problem here..just my 2 cents

[brooksgarner]

Thursday morning, temperatures won't be far from freezing in areas well north of Houston... (Conroe and Huntsville?) Today there were reports (per the NWS) of icing on bridges in Brazos Valley up around Bryan earlier this morning... After this arctic front passes thru tomorrow, we'll see New Year's morning looking to be around 36° in Houston with rain in the area... and that's of course, only 4° away from freezing. Your guess is as good as mine in this case. I totally agree that the models are all off, probably significantly under estimating the density and cold of this artic airmass... that ridge is pretty darn stout! (Even today, MOS guidance is suggesting upper-50s but HRRR may have best handle, with upper 40s -- keeping clouds in place thru greatest solar insolation period.)

What do you think about New Year's? Cold rain? Icy mix north of Montgomery County?

[srainhoutx]

The barometric pressure readings from NE and E of Edmonton, Canada down to Great Falls, MT are reading in the 1054mb range. That extends further N in Alberta. Yellowknife in the NW Territories is reading 1047mb.

[JulieC]

I am one of those folks headed to Fort Worth for the Cougar game on Jan. 2. However, I won't be leaving from Houston, I will be driving from San Antonio to Fort Worth the day before the game, probably in the early afternoon. Do we know what the weather situation will be along I-35 on NY day? I am wondering if I need to adjust my plans? Thanks for any advice you can give me, I don't want to be stuck in an ice storm!

[tx_kingwood32]

Thursday morning, temperatures won't be far from freezing in areas well north of Houston... (Conroe and Huntsville?) Today there were reports (per the NWS) of icing on bridges in Brazos Valley up around Bryan earlier this morning... After this arctic front passes thru tomorrow, we'll see New Year's morning looking to be around 36° in Houston with rain in the area... and that's of course, only 4° away from freezing. Your guess is as good as mine in this case. I totally agree that the models are all off, probably significantly under estimating the density and cold of this artic airmass... that ridge is pretty darn stout! (Even today, MOS guidance is suggesting upper-50s but HRRR may have best handle, with upper 40s -- keeping clouds in place thru greatest solar insolation period.)

What do you think about New Year's? Cold rain? Icy mix north of Montgomery County?

I'm guessing just a cold rain for us..looks like the action will be in Orth Texas and austin..nothing here but rain..MAYBE a ice pellet mixed in

[srainhoutx]

I am one of those folks headed to Fort Worth for the Cougar game on Jan. 2. However, I won't be leaving from Houston, I will be driving from San Antonio to Fort Worth the day before the game, probably in the early afternoon. Do we know what the weather situation will be along I-35 on NY day? I am wondering if I need to adjust my plans? Thanks for any advice you can give me, I don't want to be stuck in an ice storm!

Keep monitoring JulieC. We will be here to update with the very latest good and factual information as humanly possible as the events of this week get closer.

[snowman65]

What is causing the frozen stuff W of Austin New Years Day to be ice and not snow?

[srainhoutx]

What is causing the frozen stuff W of Austin New Years Day to be ice and not snow?

Warm layer above 3000 feet. This is very typical when we have an upper trough/closed core upper low to our West. It causes a SW flow aloft from the Eastern Pacific Ocean across Mexico and NE over Texas. Water Vapor Imagery clearly shows the SW flow aloft already.

[snowman65]

Well.....You can't change it?? lol...Thanks!

[ndale]

Just a quick question Srainhoutx, what circumstances does it take to get a "deeper" airmass into Tx, one that would produce snow?

[srainhoutx]

Just a quick question Srainhoutx, what circumstances does it take to get a "deeper" airmass into Tx, one that would produce snow?

Typically when we see a closed cold core upper low pass directly over or very near your location the column is sufficiently cold in all levels to produce snow or sleet.

[ndale]

Ok, thanks, Srainhoutx.

[harpman]

That's what gave us the snow event here in the New Orleans area in 2008. We had a cold core ULL pass over the southern part of the state. Some areas received up to 8".

[JulieC]

I am one of those folks headed to Fort Worth for the Cougar game on Jan. 2. However, I won't be leaving from Houston, I will be driving from San Antonio to Fort Worth the day before the game, probably in the early afternoon. Do we know what the weather situation will be along I-35 on NY day? I am wondering if I need to adjust my plans? Thanks for any advice you can give me, I don't want to be stuck in an ice storm!

Keep monitoring JulieC. We will be here to update with the very latest good and factual information as humanly possible as the events of this week get closer.

Thanks! Will do. I appreciate everything y'all do to keep us informed. As of today, I don't see anyone talking about this. I hope we aren't in for a big surprise!

[srainhoutx]

NWS Midland/Odessa issues Winter Storm Watch for their entire forecast area. Light freezing drizzle, freezing rain, freezing fog the primary p-type for that area

[brooksgarner]

As of 4pm newscast at KHOU 11, we are going "wet" (not wintry) for Houston area... but we are mentioning that this is a situation to monitor for possible icing far north and west of Houston. (Austin/San Anton/Bryan) for a time New Year's morning... all models continue to advertise "wet" for southeast Texas, as the sole precip mode. I wonder what tomorrow's model runs will bring. The GFS parallel model showed icy mix in Houston in its forecast a week and a half ago -- now forecasting rain. Will be interesting to see if it slips back toward a mix as we get closer. Too many factors in play for any sort of certainty, but for me at least, this is the most "interesting" system so far this winter for the possibility of an icy mix within a 2hr drive north/west of downtown Houston.