March Ends As One Of The 'Wettest' March On Record

[Portastorm]

38 in SW Austin at 8 pm with gusty north winds ... temps continue to fall.

[srainhoutx]

Evening briefing from Jeff:

Late season arctic front to bring likely the worst winter storm of the season to a large part of TX tonight/Thursday.



Arctic boundary is cutting SE TX in half this evening with College Station 39 and a N wind gusting to 37 while BUSH IAH is 73. Even better is heavy freezing rain mixed with sleet at Dallas with a temperatures of 31 and N wind gusting to 39. Lubbock was reporting heavy snow with zero visibility and N wind gusting of 40mph a few hours ago. Yet BUSH IAH did reach 81 today!



Front will move off the upper TX coast by 1100pm and onset the period of very strong winds across the area. Gusts tonight up to 45mph will be possible W of I-45 and along the entire coast line. Radar shows a large area of freezing rain and sleet over a good part of the TX Hilly Country and N TX. Expect the freezing line to get into our northern tier counties in the 400am-1000am time period Thursday morning with a light freezing/sleet mixture possible from Madisonville to Crockett. Little to no accumulation is expected on bridge or overpasses after reaching nearly 80 this afternoon. Expect the ice/sleet accumulation line to run from roughly just north of San Antonio to Giddings to Centerville. Some locations of the Hill Country into NE TX could see as much as .10-.25 of an inch of ice accumulation tonight and with the 40mph winds potential for widespread power disruption is moderate to high. Travel on US 290, I-45, and US 59 north of SE TX tonight into at least the first half of Thursday is strongly discouraged as road conditions will be extremely hazardous from both freezing rain and sleet accumulations. Anti-ice operations will be largely ineffective given the heavy nature of the precipitation expected overnight.



Most of SE TX will largely miss the impacts of this winter storm.



Note: Sea fog which has plagued the coast the last few days will be “blown” away by the incoming polar air with gale force conditions likely tonight/early Thursday over the NW Gulf waters. At least for the next few days we will not have to deal with any sea fog threat. This current cold air outbreak will only serve to chill the nearshore waters again and it is inevitable that the humid southern Gulf of Mexico air will return and with it the sea fog again.

[jeff]

EWX was within their warning time window...issued at 1030am this morning or a full 12 hours likely before the onset of any freezing precip and both a noon and evening news cycle. They could have maybe put out a watch yesterday...but there was uncertainty and even still some this evening with accumulation amounts. Most agencies and decision makers will make those decisions in the morning anyway regardless of what advisory or warning is in place ahead of time...the wait and see approach...Austin has been burned too many times recently on the overwarning side of the scale.

Winter weather is a very hard and tough call as criteria are in place to guide the product issuance which is based on accumulations and not so much impact. .01 of an inch of ice is advisory level in SE TX, but can cause really big impacts...but that does not make it a "warning" situation...over .12 of an inch qualifies for the warning. It is an absolute nightmare trying to communicate all that in these situations.

[Portastorm]

I think they've (EWX) done a great job for most of today.

[BlueJay]

Down to 45F.

[nuby3]

Waco reporting 33 and light snow

[nuby3]

Snow accumulating more than 2" per hour in and around dfw

[Texaspirate11]

41 Gusty Winds and raining at the bay at Midnight.

[Heat Miser]

A relative in Saginaw "DFW area" posted this pic about an hour ago.

[unome]

EWX drops warning, keeps advisory http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... 20advisory

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
344 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING CANCELLED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND METRO AUSTIN...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR WESTERN AREAS...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR HILL COUNTRY I-35 AND ADJACENT COUNTIES...

.STRONG ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP THROUGH THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MOIST GULF AIR WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ABOVE THE COLD AIR WITH THE RESULT EXPECTED TO BE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND IMPACTS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT. WE HAVE DOWNGRADED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE.

TXZ193-194-204>208-051500-
/O.EXT.KEWX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-150305T1500Z/BASTROP-LEE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS... SEGUIN...LOCKHART
344 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

* TIMING...ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING COMING TO END BY 9 AM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER NOON THURSDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET CAUSING ICING OF LESS THAN 1/10 INCH. THIS WILL MAKE FOR PATCHY ICE ON ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SIDEWALKS...DECKS...AND OTHER SURFACES MAY BE SLIPPERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

[unome]

Warnings still remain for FWD http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

000
FXUS64 KFWD 051000
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERMAN TO DALLAS TO KILLEEN LINE. A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL END ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WE WILL KEEP THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING EVEN THOUGH THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED ...WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 10 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. THUS HAVE CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF A BOWIE...MERIDIAN...GATESVILLE LINE. WILL LET THE REST OF THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH 6 AM. WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THEN TO 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT WITH ICE/SNOW ON THE GROUND...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TODAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE FRIDAY AS SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS. THIS MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY...50S SATURDAY...MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND 60S AREA WIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS A SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS TO THE SOUTH...THERE WILL BE LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 37 23 47 28 54 / 5 0 0 5 10
WACO, TX 37 22 48 27 53 / 10 0 0 5 10
PARIS, TX 37 20 45 26 54 / 10 0 0 5 10
DENTON, TX 36 20 47 27 54 / 5 0 0 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 37 20 47 27 54 / 5 0 0 5 5
DALLAS, TX 37 24 47 28 54 / 5 0 0 5 10
TERRELL, TX 35 21 47 28 54 / 10 0 0 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 37 24 48 29 54 / 10 0 0 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 38 23 49 28 52 / 10 0 0 10 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 37 19 47 28 55 / 5 0 0 5 10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146-156>159.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ147-148-160>162-174-175.

&&

$$

25/58

[unome]

& a big "KUDOS" to TAMU for their weather balloon !

from HGX http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

000
FXUS64 KHGX 051039
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
439 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BASICALLY TWO POST-FRONTAL BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS... ONE LARGER SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND A LIGHTER RAIN SWATH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA. GENERALLY... 6 HOURLY RAINFALL HAS BEEN A HALF AN INCH OR UNDER WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS DOWNTOWN HOUSTON. AS OF NOW...JUST LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA HAVE REMAINED A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THE GRACIOUS TAMU 06Z SOUNDING WAS INDICATIVE OF A SLEET SOUNDING WITH A ~3,000 FT SUB-FREEZING LAYER BELOW A DEEP WARM LAYER. AS WE NEAR SUNRISE... BELIEVE THAT ANY REMAINING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON LINE WILL BE MIXED WITH SLEET OR MAYBE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING IN LATTER THIS MORNING... THESE COUNTIES COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED SHORT-LIVED LIGHT SLEET OR SNOW. DUE TO THE PRECEDENT WARM CONDITIONS... NO ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET/SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED WITH ONLY MINOR SLICK SPOTS MAKING FOR NUISANCE TRAVELING CONDITIONS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WANING JUST AS THE LOW-MID LAYER COLDEST AIR ARRIVES... SO IT ALL MAY BE A MUTE POINT. A SPEED MAX EXITING NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TRAVELING PARALLEL TO THE TEXAS COASTLINE THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE STATE BY 18Z... WITH THE RRQ REGION OF THE JET PULLING AWAY AS WELL... SO FORECAST IS FOR GREATLY DIMINISHING WEST-TO-EAST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 8 HOURS.

THE NORTH WINDS BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN POWERFUL... WESTERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDING THE LOCAL BAYS AND GULF HAVE REGULARLY REPORTED SUSTAINED 30G40 KT READINGS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY... BUT THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON AND 3 PM CST... RESPECTIVELY. THIS ROBUST OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DRIVE WATER LEVELS DOWN IN THE LOCAL BAYS SO CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED FOR BOATERS IN THE LOCAL TRIBUTARIES/BAYOUS/BAYS WITH RESPECT TO GROUNDING. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION... ALONG WITH THESE NORTH WINDS THAT WILL STAY UP TO AROUND 20 KTS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. THUS... MAKE SURE TO DRESS IN LAYERS IF OUTSIDE IN THESE WINTRY CONDITIONS FOR ANY MENTIONABLE LENGTH OF TIME. A FRIGID NORTHERN TEXAS AIR MASS FILTERING INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL HAVE TODAY`S TEMPERATURES VARYING BY ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO... LITTLE TO NO WARMING HAS MANY FAR INTERIOR COMMUNITIES STUCK IN THE 30S (AND OVERNIGHT 20S) OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A LARGE NEAR 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO EASTERN TEXAS EARLY FRIDAY AND WEAKEN WINDS... CLEARING SKIES WILL HAVE THE NORTHERN CWA FALLING TO BELOW FREEZING FOR APPROXIMATE 12-14 HOURS. THE FREEZING LINE WILL NEAR THE COAST AND MORE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR ABOUT 6-8 HOURS. IT WOULD BE WISE TO MAKE THE NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TODAY TO PROTECT YOUR 3 P`S... PEOPLE... PETS AND PLANTS.

LIGHT WINDS REMAIN EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THICKENING CLOUDINESS WITH SUBSEQUENT DAY(TIME) WARMING FROM FRIDAY`S UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TO MONDAY`S UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. A BROAD AND SOMEWHAT SHALLOW LOWER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL PLACE THE REGION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... KEEPING THE SOUTHERN THIRD FA/MARITIME SUNDAY AND MONDAY`S POPS IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH CATEGORY. DESPITE A POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY REINFORCING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL KEEP NORTHEASTERLIES IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK... DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY. CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S PER A NE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL FORTIFY A RELATIVELY DRIER RESIDENT AIR MASS. 31

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CAUSE THE TRANSPORT OF SOME WATER OUT OF THE BAYS AND CAUSE TIDE LEVELS TO RUN 1 TO 2 FEET BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAYS. GALE WARNINGS & LOW WATER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY. SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT & FRI AND VEER TO THE NE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN METRO/COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 15Z...CLL/UTS EARLIER. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THRU THE DAY AND INTO VFR TERRITORY BETWEEN 19-21Z AND SHOULD BE SKC BY SUNSET. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS >30KT. SPEED SHOULD VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH IN THE LATE AFTN HOURS AND LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS AFTER SUNSET. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 35 25 50 32 55 / 20 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 39 29 52 34 57 / 50 10 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 42 34 50 41 52 / 60 10 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AUSTIN... BRAZORIA... BRAZOS... BURLESON... CHAMBERS... COLORADO... FORT BEND... GALVESTON... GRIMES... HARRIS... JACKSON... MADISON... MATAGORDA... WALLER... WASHINGTON... WHARTON.

GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY... MATAGORDA BAY.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/47

[srainhoutx]

Seeing some 7 inch snow amounts just N and E of DT Dallas with a few 4 to 5 inch snow amounts near Ft Worth. It's going to be very cold today with the gusty winds blowing across that N Texas snow. Protect your plants tonight. Freezing temperatures could reach the Coastal tier of Counties as the winds relax overnight. We may have some clouds linger that may save us from a harder freeze with that pesky Baja upper low still spreading mid and high level clouds across the Gulf Coast. After being teased with temperatures in the low 80's yesterday, I am so ready for Spring like weather that lasts more than a day or two. And to think we've been talking about winter weather since mid November. Enough already... The GFS suggests another shot of colder weather arrives mid March. It also appears that El Nino may be officially declared today. We could see a wet Spring pattern developing and that would certainly help areas across Central Texas that need the rain to fill the Highland Lakes as we transition into Summer.

[Katdaddy]

That makes two of us Srain. Bring on Spring. Enough Winter until next year.

[unome]

I 3rd that, bring on Spring already - we're at our high temp til sometime Friday

from WPC's latest storm summary:

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 700 PM EST WED MAR 04 THROUGH 300 AM EST THU MAR 05...

...TEXAS...
DALLAS 8 N 6.0
CLARENDON 5.0
FORT WORTH 8 E 5.0
GRAPEVINE 5.0
WELLINGTON 5.0
MCLEAN 4.5
BENBROOK 4.0
CHILLICOTHE 4.0
GRAND PRAIRIE 4.0
KELLER 4.0

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SLEET IN INCHES FROM 700 PM EST WED MAR 04 THROUGH 300 AM EST THU MAR 05...

...TEXAS...
MERIDIAN 0.75
BOWIE 0.50
DALLAS 4 NE 0.50
ROSCOE 0.50
TERRELL 5 S 0.25

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AT 1000 AM EST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Snow, sleet and rain mix in Conroe and Montgomery this morning.

[Portastorm]

EWX was within their warning time window...issued at 1030am this morning or a full 12 hours likely before the onset of any freezing precip and both a noon and evening news cycle. They could have maybe put out a watch yesterday...but there was uncertainty and even still some this evening with accumulation amounts. Most agencies and decision makers will make those decisions in the morning anyway regardless of what advisory or warning is in place ahead of time...the wait and see approach...Austin has been burned too many times recently on the overwarning side of the scale.

Winter weather is a very hard and tough call as criteria are in place to guide the product issuance which is based on accumulations and not so much impact. .01 of an inch of ice is advisory level in SE TX, but can cause really big impacts...but that does not make it a "warning" situation...over .12 of an inch qualifies for the warning. It is an absolute nightmare trying to communicate all that in these situations.

Well jeff, as it turned out ... EWX was right for being cautious and it's too bad they went "all in" yesterday only to have the severity of the event not materialize. Then again, they were simply going by what everything but the NAM was showing. It was only until last evening ... when the HRRR started suggesting a quick stopping of precip around midnight ... that guidance turned.

It's only fair that I offer a mea culpa to them and say that my comments were way too extreme. As you say and as most of us know, forecasting winter weather in Texas, especially below I-20, is a tough, tough task.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I think I could write a thesis on Winter Weather in Texas due to all the busts and surprises we see!

[srainhoutx]

Sleet/rain mix reported in Edna (Jackson County).

[jasons2k]

So far just rain here @ home. I'll watch for any flakes or sleet during the commute and report if I see anything.

BTW, the NWS AFD comment about he "mute" point made me chuckle...must have been a C student in English.