JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

Will need to monitor the ongoing Flash Flooding across portions of S Central Texas throughout the day. Additional storms are firing along the Sierra Madre Mountains as well as across N Central Texas ahead of an upper trough and moisture somewhat associated with Carlos across the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Outflow boundaries will likely focus redevelopment of additional storms later this morning to our West. Some locations have received near 7 inches of rainfall the past few hours

[unome]

from: https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic
The reconnaissance mission for the system near the Yucatan has been slipped from 2 PM to 5 PM.

NHC announces its new Twitter account for interactive outreach - @nwsnhc. We look forward to engaging the public and our partners here: https://twitter.com/NWSNHC/with_replies

[srainhoutx]

First early morning High Resolution satellite imagery suggests a surface low may be developing just N of the Yucatan Peninsula in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Movement appears to be to the NW at this time.

[srainhoutx]

12Z Track and Intensity guidance for 91L still clustered along the Middle/Upper Texas Coast.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/14/15 1347Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1330Z WARREN
.
LOCATION...S-CENTRAL TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT. APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
.
EVENT...UPDATE TO PREVIOUS SPENES FOR ONGOING HVY RAINS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VISIBLE STLT IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HR
INDICATES MOST ACTIVITY/NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG THE SE AND
ERN EDGE OF A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LOCATED ACROSS
S-CENTRAL TX. OVERALL THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RELATIVELY SLOW-MOVING
WITH A GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST EVEN THOUGH INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTIONS
HAVE BEEN STEADY TO THE ENE...UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT HAS ALLOWED TRAINING
TO OCCUR. VERY MOIST 2.0" PW MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS AREA HAS RESULTED
IN 1-2" RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN AN HR.

IR/VIS STLT SUGGESTING WRN EDGE OF ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AS SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS NEARS ALONG WITH DISSIPATING CAPE PER GOES
SOUNDER/SPC MESO ANALYSIS. MODEST LLVL INFLOW LOOKS LIKE IT MAY PERSIST
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS ALLOWING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP...BUT
WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING MUCH MORE LIMITED THINKING HVY RAINFALL THREAT
MAY BE VERY LOCALIZED AND DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

[Portastorm]

We picked up close to an inch and a half in an hour or so earlier today here in SW Austin.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

***Tropical system likely to impact the TX coast early this week.***

Dangerous amounts of rainfall expected leading to potentially widespread and significant flooding.

Discussion:
Air mass is moist and tropical this morning with PWS of 2.17 inches recorded at Lake Charles and radar show numerous showers and thunderstorms progressing inland off the Gulf of Mexico. Concentration of heavy rainfall is aimed at the areas north of Victoria to SE of Austin where training bands are in progress. Will have to keep a close eye on this as the radar suggest training bands attempting to setup over our western counties. Rainfall rates in this air mass will be 2-3 inches per hour and can quickly lead to flooding especially in urban areas.

91L:
System remains rather disorganized this morning as the sharp surface trough or elongated area of low pressure continues to interact with an upper level trough to its west. This upper trough is forecast to weaken and drift southwest while high pressure builds over the SE US. This will slowly result in more favorable conditions for tropical cyclone formation over the western Gulf of Mexico tonight-Tuesday.

Track:
91L will track generally NW toward the TX coast and this is support by all model guidance which are actually fairly tightly clustered with a landfall along the middle/upper TX coast on Tuesday. The exact track will be determined by the building ridge of high pressure over the SE US. It is interesting to note that a couple respectable models do slow and briefly stall the system near landfall on Tuesday, but at this time this appears to be an outlier solution.

Intensity:
There has been little change in the intensity guidance overnight with generally most models showing a weak tropical storm near landfall. Upper level conditions will gradually become more favorable for development as the system moves into the NW Gulf and upper level shear weakens. This does not appear to be a situation where rapid intensification is favored.

Impacts:
Main impact with be rainfall and potentially very significant amounts of rainfall. Potential is increasing for a dangerous flash flood event associated with the landfall of this system.

Rainfall:
Forecast models are in general agreement with excessive rainfall and an extremely moist air mass moving into the area Monday afternoon and evening as the northern feeder bands/rain shield approach the coast. PWS increase to 2.4-2.6 inches which is +2SD above normal and near record values for June. TS Allison values were near 2.4 inches…so this air mass will be very much capable of some really big rainfall totals. Training of feeder bands is worrying with SE TX likely falling on the eastern side of the circulation center. Hourly rainfall rates of 3-6 inches will be possible which will quickly lead to flash flooding.

WPC has already placed SE TX in a slight risk for heavy rainfall and this will likely be increased to a moderate or even high risk. Flash flood watches will be required.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 6-8 inches with isolated totals of 10-15 inches is the current thinking. Should the system slow or a period of sustained cell training develop…totals could easily top 20 inches.

This is a potentially very serious flash flood threat and areas that do not normally flood could flood which this type of rainfall.

Tides:
Tides are running .5-1.0 ft above normal this morning. Current water levels are running 2.0-2.4 ft total water along Bolivar and 2.2-2.6 ft total water level in Galveston Bay. Critical elevations are around 4.0 ft along the Gulf beaches and 4.0-5.0 ft in the bay. Increasing E to ESE winds will likely result in additional tidal and wave pile up along the upper TX coast. Will need to keep a close watch on tides as they could get into coastal flood warning criteria or around 4.0 ft above normal late Monday into Tuesday which would result in overwash of the western end of Galveston Island and Bolivar.

Winds:
Will not go much higher than 40-45mph across the coastal waters although stronger winds are possible in heavy thunderstorms and feeder bands. Worst of the weather will likely be removed to the east side of the center of circulation or across the SE TX waters into SW LA. Tropical storm force winds are possible if not likely across much of the coastal waters late Monday into Tuesday and across the coastal beaches and inland bays early Tuesday. Inland winds of 25-35mph can be expected.

Tornadoes:
The current forecast track place the center inland along the mid or upper TX coast between Corpus Christi and Galveston Bay. This places much of SE TX within the right front quaderant of the system which is most favorable for weak tornado production. Tornadoes tend to be most likely in the feeder bands and this will be possible with this system. Tornado threat will be increasing late Monday and last much of the day on Tuesday as bands move inland from the Gulf of Mexico. Such tornadoes tend to be weak…but can still cause damage.

Actions:
Residents along the middle and upper TX coast into SW LA should be preparing for the landfall of a tropical storm within the next 72 hours….with the main emphasis being on flooding.

Keep up to date on the latest weather forecasts as significant forecast changes will be possible over the next 48 hours.

[unome]

NCEP Operational HWRF Forecasts for Storm INVEST91L

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt ... =INVEST91L

you can read about the recent upgrade of this model here: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt ... ch=summary

[Rip76]

Looking at the satellite imagery for 91L it "looks" like it wants to move northward towards Louisiana.
I was reading about high pressure moving in from the SE, so we shall see.

[srainhoutx]

Zoomed and wider view visible imagery loops...moving NW to me...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1141 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BEXAR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 1137 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN FROM SHAVANO PARK TO DOWNTOWN SAN ANTONIO TO
ELMENDORF AND ANOTHER BAND FROM GREY FOREST TO LEON VALLEY.
DOPPLER RADAR AND RAIN GAUGES INDICATE UP TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH
OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...LIVE OAK...LEON VALLEY...KIRBY...HELOTES...ALAMO
HEIGHTS...WINDCREST...TERRELL HILLS...HOLLYWOOD PARK...SHAVANO
PARK...OLMOS PARK...SOMERSET...ELMENDORF...CHINA GROVE...LACKLAND
AFB...SEA WORLD...CROSS MOUNTAIN...THE DOMINION...CASTLE HILLS AND
BALCONES HEIGHTS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

[Rip76]

I never trust my eyes this early.
Maybe it's just because of cloud tops giving that appearance.

[unome]

it looks to me like it's about done eating the initial gulp of dry air for lunch & it's tilting nw to se, toward the lower pressures in the western gulf

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/atmosphere/?channel=ir

http://www.sailwx.info/wxobs/pressure.phtml

[srainhoutx]

Here is the latest RECON missions tasked for 91L and Carlos. The Hurricane Hunters will be very active the next several days. This does not include the mission tasked later this afternoon.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 M EDT SUN 14 JUNE 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JUNE 2015
         TCPOD NUMBER.....15-020

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
       A. 15/1130Z, 1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
       C. 15/0930Z
       D. 25.5N 93.5W
       E. 15/1115Z TO 15/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
       A. 15/2330Z, 16/0530Z
       B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE
       C. 15/2100Z
       D. 26.8N 95.2W
       E. 15/2315Z TO 16/0530Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
       A. 16/1130Z, 1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE
       C. 16/0915Z
       D. 28.2N 96.3W
       E. 16/1115Z TO 16/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE CARLOS
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
       A. 15/1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0103E CARLOS
       C. 15/1300Z
       D. 17.0N 102.4W
       E. 15/1700Z TO 15/1930Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....POSSIBLE FIX ON
       HURRICANE CARLOS AT 16/1730Z NEAR 18.4N 104.3W.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/14/15 1657Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1645Z WARREN
.
LOCATION...S-CENTRAL TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT. APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
.
EVENT...POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST VIS STLT IMAGERY/RADAR SHOWING
NEW TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INVOF REMNANT MCV CENTERED NEAR HDO.
INSTABILITY AXIS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN TX WITH GOES
SOUNDER INDICATING CAPES HAVE QUICKLY CLIMBED TO NEAR 3000 J/KG.
THE EXPERIMENTAL STLT CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRODUCT IS NOW LATCHING
ON TO THE IDEA OF NUMEROUS TSTMS INITIATING ALONG CU CLOUD STREAMERS
LOCATED S AND SE OF DEVELOPING TSTMS. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID 70 DEW POINTS POOLED ACROSS THE AREA.
ONSHORE SERLY FLOW HAS ALLOW AIRMASS TO QUICKLY REBOUND FROM EARLIER
ROUND OF HVY RAINFALL ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY AT BAZ WHERE IT HAS JUMPED
TO 77F TD IN THE PAST HR.

ALSO WATCHING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS PUSHES EWD S OF DRT AND E OF
THE RIO GRANDE FROM A MCS THAT HAS SINCED DISSIPATED ACROSS THE BORDER IN
OLD MEXICO FURTHER ENHANCING LLVL CONVERGENCE. CONCERNED ABOUT ACTIVITY
EXPANDING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS
AREAS THAT RECEIVED HVY RAINFALL JUST THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SLOW-MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RATES IN EXCESS OF 2.0"/HR.
THINKING OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR ACITVITY TO EXPAND/SHIFT EWD THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON TOWARD STRONGEST LLVL INFLOW/INSTABILITY AXIS.

[srainhoutx]

Update from NWS Houston/Galveston:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1107 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWING MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE TX THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE
MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH AT A DECENT SPEED SO RAINFALL IS NOT
STACKING UP LIKE YESTERDAY. THAT SAID SOME STORMS STILL PUTTING
OUT 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN VERY QUICKLY WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR STREET
FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS OR QUICK RISES ON CREEKS/BAYOUS.

ACCORDINGLY EVERYONE IS FIXED ON TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER YUCATAN
MAYBE S GULF JUST NORTH OF YUCATAN. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY MAY BE
SHOWING AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW. HARD TO SAY IF ANY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED.
SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY NOT EXACTLY BE PURELY TROPICAL TO START BUT
A HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM THAT COULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO A WARM CORE
TROPICAL SYSTEM.

EARLY 12Z NAM HAS NOT INITIALIZED WELL AT ALL...GFS IS SOMEWHAT
BETTER WITH A MORE DIFFUSE DISORGANIZED SYSTEM TO START. SYSTEM
STILL ON TRACK WITH MOTION TOWARDS THE TX COAST. WILL WAIT FOR
REST OF 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BEFORE MAKING CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

39

[Rip76]

Looks like there may be a closed low associated with 91L.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like there may be a closed low associated with 91L.

It appears that way. Winds in Campeche have switched to the WNW and Merida has gone calm.

[Katdaddy]

Looking a little better this afternoon. Enjoying the beautiful partly sunny tropical skies. This afternoon's model runs and AFD will be very interesting.

[unome]

70% at 2


000
ABNT20 KNHC 141742
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough of low pressure has moved off of the Yucatan
peninsula and into the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The
system is accompanied by an area of thunderstorms and winds to
near gale force well to the east of the trough, but it does not yet
have a well-defined closed circulation. This weather system is
expected to move northwestward over the next couple of days across
the western Gulf of Mexico, where upper-level winds are forecast to
gradually become more favorable for tropical cyclone formation. An
Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the
system late this afternoon, with another mission planned for
Monday morning. Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For additional
information, please see High Seas forecasts as well as products
issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Franklin