JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[tireman4]

Special Message from NHC Issued 16 Jun 2015 01:51 UTC
NHC is initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Bill and expects to release the advisory in the next 20 minutes.

[seanatsk]

There's some video and pictures from bolivar and la Porte that make the water level and chop look pretty impressive.

[Andrew]

000
WTNT22 KNHC 160206
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015
0300 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS
FROM BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 94.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 94.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 94.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.3N 95.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.7N 97.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 98.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 94.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Andrew]

Official Track

[Cromagnum]

That official track looks pretty bogus when you watch the radar. Looks way too far south.

[stormlover]

I could see it making landfall to the for right of the cone

[Paul Robison]

I could see it making landfall to the for right of the cone

Usually only happens 30% of the time. Not worried about it.

[ticka1]

if business foollow the cone it will be business as usual for Houston tomorrow.

[Paul Robison]

if business foollow the cone it will be business as usual for Houston tomorrow.

I have a feeling you're right, ticka 1. I remember when Hurricane Claudette menaced Houston in 2003 and it was business as usual.

[Andrew]

Remember guys this is a larger system than average and rain and wind will extend well beyond the center. Remember the main concern from this system is still heavy rain so don't forget that a track like this would still have a large impact on much of SE Texas.

[Paul Robison]

Remember guys this is a larger system than average and rain and wind will extend well beyond the center. Remember the main concern from this system is still heavy rain so don't forget that a track like this would still have a large impact on much of SE Texas.

How much wind are you looking for?

[Cromagnum]

if business foollow the cone it will be business as usual for Houston tomorrow.

I have a feeling you're right, ticka 1. I remember when Hurricane Claudette menaced Houston in 2003 and it was business as usual.

Claudette turned sharply West before it hit. I don't think it even sprinkled in Houston that day.

[Paul Robison]

if business foollow the cone it will be business as usual for Houston tomorrow.

I have a feeling you're right, ticka 1. I remember when Hurricane Claudette menaced Houston in 2003 and it was business as usual.

Claudette turned sharply West before it hit. I don't think it even sprinkled in Houston that day.

What are your opinions about this storm, Cromagnum?

[Cromagnum]

I cant even wager where this will really go as it has been difficult for the pros to get a handle on wild Bill over here. I'm still thinking Matagorda Bay is a likely spot for it to come ashore. Worst case would be closer to Freeport.

[unome]

Tides Online - Texas

http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/coastli ... ?region=tx

[txflagwaver]

If it was a stronger more organized storm it would be easier to predict...Bill is going to meander onto land and dump lots of rain over a wide area for an extended period of time. Folks that leave as usual in the morning may not be able to get back later in the day.

[Portastorm]

The prospects of a nocturnal core rain event in or just to the northeast of the Austin metro area tomorrow night is a real concern. Don't like that path at all.

[Rip76]

From most of the satellite imagery I've seen in the last 12 hours, it seems pretty dry.
Everything that appears to move in from the gulf, seems to dissipate.

This may change in the AM.

[Paul Robison]

From most of the satellite imagery I've seen in the last 12 hours, it seems pretty dry.
Everything that appears to move in from the gulf, seems to dissipate.

This may change in the AM.

The track of TS Bill is still a little uncertain. Think it may wobble a little but it won't be far from the forecast and it's highly unlikely it will be outside the cone. The actual point of landfall is really not very important with Bill, except for bragging rights.


The beauty is the forecast track mostly spares Houston. Austin can absorb Bill better, true, but I've got a feeling that (somehow) it'll be worse for them than it will be for us

[Andrew]

From most of the satellite imagery I've seen in the last 12 hours, it seems pretty dry.
Everything that appears to move in from the gulf, seems to dissipate.

This may change in the AM.

Wait until the D-max period to see how things go first.