August 2015 - Isolated Rain Chances to End August

[srainhoutx]

Unfortunately there is no relief in sight from the heat and dry weather for our Region.

[BlueJay]

Well, it is summer...

[ticka1]

50 more days until official start of Autumn

[Paul Robison]

Curious:

Under what conditions would the anticipate NWS heat advisory escalate to an Excessive Heat Warning and what would the impacts be should this happen Wed-Fri?

[GBinGrimes]

Here is what would happen Paul:

1. You would read of the heat advisory and then pull something from WU, post it here and ask us what we thought.
2. You would search Atlantic satellites for 2 clouds within 500 miles of each other and ask the potential tropical impact from these clouds on our weather during the 4th week of August.
3. You would tell us you want to grocery shop at 7am this Saturday and be curious if the alleged Excessive Heat Warning will have an impact on traffic in your area or cause a thunderstorm off the Louisiana coast to become tropical, stall off the upper Texas coast and ruin your grocery shopping day.
4. You might ask if Groundhog Day will still occur next year since its a leap year.

Sorry folks....couldn't resist.

Curious:

Under what conditions would the anticipate NWS heat advisory escalate to an Excessive Heat Warning and what would the impacts be should this happen Wed-Fri?

[wxman57]

Here's a meteogram from the overnight run of the GFS. Had to adjust that vertical scale twice to contain its predictions of next week's temperatures. Euro indicates 850mb temps peaking next Monday as well - an indication that Monday would be the hottest day.

Time to head out on a long bike ride and enjoy the warm temps this weekend (with a sufficient supply of cold water)!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

That looks horrible. Bring on Sub 60 temps.

[srainhoutx]

Darkening skies and thundershowers developing across NW Harris County at this hour. Ahh..relief...hopefully...

[redneckweather]

Dissipating very quickly as the move north. At least they brought a little cloud debris along with them.

[kayci]

We got 5 minutes worth.... Perfect amount for a steam bath

[GBinGrimes]

Whomever is receiving these spotty showers...I am certainly envious. That's a nice and unexpected surprise for today.

Looks like the blast furnace is right around the corner.

[Paul Robison]

Whomever is receiving these spotty showers...I am certainly envious. That's a nice and unexpected surprise for today.

Looks like the blast furnace is right around the corner.

Blast furnace? True. But look at Chris Coleman's WX blog:

Chris Coleman, ERCOT Meteorologist

Last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2015

General Overview: After today, a sharp trend hotter, which will continue through the weekend. This will be the hottest period so far this summer for ERCOT as a whole. The heat should carry over into next Monday before backing off a bit heading into the middle of next week.
Today: Today will be similar to yesterday with most locations very near yesterday’s high temperatures. Near 100 this afternoon in Dallas-Fort Worth. Houston should fall shy of yesterday’s 99 by at least a couple of degrees with a chance of a scattered afternoon thunderstorm.

Tomorrow: Dry and 1 to 2 degrees hotter for most of the state. 3-4 hotter in West Texas.

Rest of the Week: Widespread dry pattern through the weekend. HOT. Most of the state 100+ degrees Thursday through Sunday, with 104 to 108 common North and West this coming weekend.

Pray for the middle of next week, eh?

[Katdaddy]

Gulf moisture in combination with the sea breeze may allow for some isolated tropical showers again today along the Upper TX Coast. The yard enjoyed .48" yesterday.

[wxman57]

Here's a meteogram from last evening's GFS run.

[wxman57]

06Z GFS is now in. Here's a new meteogram. Highs up to 113 Mon/Tue. Big cold front arrives Tuesday evening, knocking our high down to 104 for Wednesday. Keep in mind this is raw data, I'm not forecasting 113 in Houston.

[ticka1]

What temps will we see here in Houston area for this weekend and Monday?

[wxman57]

What temps will we see here in Houston area for this weekend and Monday?

I'd say low 100s (101-103) Sat/Sun and possibly above 105F for Monday.

[Electric Lizard]

06Z GFS is now in. Here's a new meteogram. Highs up to 113 Mon/Tue. Big cold front arrives Tuesday evening, knocking our high down to 104 for Wednesday. Keep in mind this is raw data, I'm not forecasting 113 in Houston.

What is the difference between this GFS temp forecast and the "actual" forecast? Does the difference stem from the fact that this is only one model? Maybe that the actual temp is moderated by some kind of feedback (e.g. hotter land temps bring out a stronger sea-breeze front)? Or should one think of this "raw" data as more of the absolute maximum temp it could possibly reach? Thanks for any help in understanding!

[wxman57]

06Z GFS is now in. Here's a new meteogram. Highs up to 113 Mon/Tue. Big cold front arrives Tuesday evening, knocking our high down to 104 for Wednesday. Keep in mind this is raw data, I'm not forecasting 113 in Houston.

What is the difference between this GFS temp forecast and the "actual" forecast? Does the difference stem from the fact that this is only one model? Maybe that the actual temp is moderated by some kind of feedback (e.g. hotter land temps bring out a stronger sea-breeze front)? Or should one think of this "raw" data as more of the absolute maximum temp it could possibly reach? Thanks for any help in understanding!

Computer models make temperature predictions. Meteorologists analyze the model data and determine what temperature is more likely (the forecast). Just because a model predicts a temperature of 113F doesn't mean such a temperature is likely to happen. Slight differences in how the model is initialized can affect the temperature prediction days in the future.

[BlueJay]

With possible record breaking heat and NO RAIN coming the next few days, it may be best to get the soaker hose going now. Stay safe everyone!