August 2015 - Isolated Rain Chances to End August

[DoctorMu]

The Death Ridge - now with more death.

[Paul Robison]

The Death Ridge - now with more death.

Are you saying this could be an even deadlier, more debilitating heat wave than what happened to us in 2011?

[Ptarmigan]

The Cockroach Ridge strikes again!

Hope that El Nino is RAID for that Cockroach Ridge.

[Paul Robison]

The Cockroach Ridge strikes again!

Hope that El Nino is RAID for that Cockroach Ridge.

Is this Cockroach Ridge the same ridge that's been causing California's heat and water miseries?

[Katdaddy]

Simply stated, the heat continues today. Stay cool out there.

[wxman57]

No change as far as next week in the overnight runs of the GFS. However, I do see signs of a pattern change after mid month. Ridge retreats west and East U.S. trof backs west into Texas a bit.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

As if it has not been hot enough…it is going to get a little hotter.

Upper level ridge which has anchored over TX since the 4th of July brining almost no rainfall and daily temperatures in the mid 90’s to low 100’s will remain in place for the next 5-7 days. Axis of the ridge this morning over the SW US will build back over N and then E TX over the next 24-72 hours. This process is already noted with building heights on the evening soundings across TX. End result will be daily afternoon high temperatures topping out in the 99-103 degree range with heat index values of 105-110. Will be right at the cusp of heat advisory criteria each afternoon and only a slight increase in either surface moisture or afternoon temperatures would require an advisory. Heat stress is cumulative and given our current streak of many days in the upper 90’s and low 100’s the heat stress continues to build.

With upper ridging firmly in place there appears to be little hope for any rainfall. Top layer soils have dried to less than 20% moisture over the last several weeks and vegetation health continues to quickly worsen. Latest KBDI values are 600-700 for nearly all counties east of I-45 and 500-600 west of I-45. The threat for wildfires is certainly increasing across the region especially from College Station to Liberty and northeast and over Brazoria County. Afternoon RH will continue to bottom out in the 30-40% range with gusty winds behind the seabreeze boundary. Fine fuels are in poor conditions and ripe to burn so extreme caution should be used with any outdoor fire.

Burn Bans: Matagorda, Waller, Grimes, Walker, Madison, Houston Counties.

Additional counties will likely need to be added as rainfall over the next week looks slim.

[srainhoutx]

For those interested in following, one of our members Hurricane Josh is in Taiwan to intercept Typhoon Soudelor. You can follow his updates via the iCyclone Facebook feed... https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone?fref=nf

[DoctorMu]

The Death Ridge - now with more death.

Are you saying this could be an even deadlier, more debilitating heat wave than what happened to us in 2011?

Fortunately, June rains have reduced the impact in Texas until now. We have maybe 2 more weeks until a pattern change occurs. While persistent, the ridge this year has not debilitating...until now.

In Louisiana though - 110° will smash records.

[kayci]

So my boss's dad just pulled in from Niagra Falls, he said they've been having record highs 5 days in a row..... a whopping 80 degrees!!! *ugh* Says he's ready to turn around and go back.

[Paul Robison]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

As if it has not been hot enough…it is going to get a little hotter.

Upper level ridge which has anchored over TX since the 4th of July brining almost no rainfall and daily temperatures in the mid 90’s to low 100’s will remain in place for the next 5-7 days. Axis of the ridge this morning over the SW US will build back over N and then E TX over the next 24-72 hours. This process is already noted with building heights on the evening soundings across TX. End result will be daily afternoon high temperatures topping out in the 99-103 degree range with heat index values of 105-110. Will be right at the cusp of heat advisory criteria each afternoon and only a slight increase in either surface moisture or afternoon temperatures would require an advisory. Heat stress is cumulative and given our current streak of many days in the upper 90’s and low 100’s the heat stress continues to build.

With upper ridging firmly in place there appears to be little hope for any rainfall. Top layer soils have dried to less than 20% moisture over the last several weeks and vegetation health continues to quickly worsen. Latest KBDI values are 600-700 for nearly all counties east of I-45 and 500-600 west of I-45. The threat for wildfires is certainly increasing across the region especially from College Station to Liberty and northeast and over Brazoria County. Afternoon RH will continue to bottom out in the 30-40% range with gusty winds behind the seabreeze boundary. Fine fuels are in poor conditions and ripe to burn so extreme caution should be used with any outdoor fire.

Burn Bans: Matagorda, Waller, Grimes, Walker, Madison, Houston Counties.

Additional counties will likely need to be added as rainfall over the next week looks slim.

Perhaps the lion is not as fierce as he's painted. Look at this HGX disco:

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS SE TX TODAY...BUT WITH MUCH LESS PCPN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE STATE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MIXING DOWN HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS/HEAT INDICIES SOMEWHAT MANAGE-
ABLE DESPITE THE DECREASED CLOUD COVER. STILL KEEPING CLOSE TABS
ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. MAIN ISSUE LOOKS TO BE
DEWPOINTS AND HOW MUCH MIXING WE COULD SEE DURING THE DAY. THESE
LATEST RUNS NOT QUITE AS HEAVY HANDED WITH THESE FACTORS AND THE
RESULTING INDICIES APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST UNDER CRITERIA. HOWEVER
WITH THE PROGGED RIDGE SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND A
BIT MORE WILLING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF THE MOS SPEC-
TRUM FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. PREVIOUS GRIDS APPEAR TO HAVE THIS WELL
COVERED SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED THERE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISO/WIDELY
SCT PCPN FOR TUE/WED AS PWS SURGE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EVER SO SLIGHTLY BACK WEST. THIS MIGHT BE
OUR BEST SHOT OF RAIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO GIVEN THE PROGS OF
THE MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT. 41

Normally, I don't like rain, but I do like what the second paragraph says.

[Paul Robison]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

As if it has not been hot enough…it is going to get a little hotter.

Upper level ridge which has anchored over TX since the 4th of July brining almost no rainfall and daily temperatures in the mid 90’s to low 100’s will remain in place for the next 5-7 days. Axis of the ridge this morning over the SW US will build back over N and then E TX over the next 24-72 hours. This process is already noted with building heights on the evening soundings across TX. End result will be daily afternoon high temperatures topping out in the 99-103 degree range with heat index values of 105-110. Will be right at the cusp of heat advisory criteria each afternoon and only a slight increase in either surface moisture or afternoon temperatures would require an advisory. Heat stress is cumulative and given our current streak of many days in the upper 90’s and low 100’s the heat stress continues to build.

With upper ridging firmly in place there appears to be little hope for any rainfall. Top layer soils have dried to less than 20% moisture over the last several weeks and vegetation health continues to quickly worsen. Latest KBDI values are 600-700 for nearly all counties east of I-45 and 500-600 west of I-45. The threat for wildfires is certainly increasing across the region especially from College Station to Liberty and northeast and over Brazoria County. Afternoon RH will continue to bottom out in the 30-40% range with gusty winds behind the seabreeze boundary. Fine fuels are in poor conditions and ripe to burn so extreme caution should be used with any outdoor fire.

Burn Bans: Matagorda, Waller, Grimes, Walker, Madison, Houston Counties.

Additional counties will likely need to be added as rainfall over the next week looks slim.

Perhaps the lion is not as fierce as he's painted. Look at this HGX disco:

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS SE TX TODAY...BUT WITH MUCH LESS PCPN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE STATE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MIXING DOWN HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS/HEAT INDICIES SOMEWHAT MANAGE-
ABLE DESPITE THE DECREASED CLOUD COVER. STILL KEEPING CLOSE TABS
ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. MAIN ISSUE LOOKS TO BE
DEWPOINTS AND HOW MUCH MIXING WE COULD SEE DURING THE DAY. THESE
LATEST RUNS NOT QUITE AS HEAVY HANDED WITH THESE FACTORS AND THE
RESULTING INDICIES APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST UNDER CRITERIA. HOWEVER
WITH THE PROGGED RIDGE SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND A
BIT MORE WILLING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF THE MOS SPEC-
TRUM FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. PREVIOUS GRIDS APPEAR TO HAVE THIS WELL
COVERED SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED THERE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISO/WIDELY
SCT PCPN FOR TUE/WED AS PWS SURGE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EVER SO SLIGHTLY BACK WEST. THIS MIGHT BE
OUR BEST SHOT OF RAIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO GIVEN THE PROGS OF
THE MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT. 41

Normally, I don't like rain, but I do like what the second paragraph says.
Uh, what's heat stress?

[Katdaddy]

Hot weather to continue across TX this weekend with highs at 100F. The potential exist for even hotter weather next week.

[ticka1]

For those that love heat - go out in work 8-12 hours in it - most don't - I know my husband does everyday. With the heat forecast the next several days - please take time to check on people especially the elderly, pets and plants. I don't think we will see a change until Mid or late September that will be long lasting.

[wxman57]

Overnight GFS is a little different in that it keeps the heat going through next weekend now. Also, no 110-113 indicated (which was quite unlikely to happen).

[tireman4]

Folks, please be take precautions in this heat. Ticka is right, for those who work in it, my gracious. Wxman 57, how much stock are you putting in the Euro? For a cold/cool weather fan such as myself, I am hanging on until September 25. That is climo for me. Usually, the first front ( dry front, but pushes the dewpoints lower) that gives us morning temperatures in the 60's and highs in the upper 80's/lower 90's is what I am waiting for.

[Katdaddy]

Heat Advisory issued for the Upper TX Coast.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1006 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR EXCEED 108 DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-10.

TXZ200-210>214-226-227-235>238-090000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HT.Y.0002.150808T1700Z-150809T0000Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-
JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-WALLER-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BROOKSHIRE...CLEVELAND...COLUMBUS...DAYTON...
EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...
WHARTON...WINNIE
1006 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

* EVENT...PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES 108-111 DEGREES.

* TIMING...12 PM TO 7 PM

* IMPACT...HEAT EXHAUSTION OR STROKE POSSIBLE WITH OVEREXERTION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 911.

EACH YEAR...A NUMBER OF FATALITIES OCCUR NATIONWIDE DUE TO
CHILDREN ACCIDENTALLY BEING LEFT IN VEHICLES DURING THE SUMMER
MONTHS. IN THE PAST DOZEN YEARS...500 CHILDREN HAVE DIED DUE TO
HYPERTHERMIA AFTER BEING LEFT IN OR GAINING ACCESS TO CARS. NEVER
LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN A VEHICLE NOT EVEN FOR A
MINUTE. REMEMBER...BEAT THE HEAT...CHECK THE BACKSEAT.

[wxman57]

The 12Z GFS still indicates that Monday will be the hottest day of next week, and probably 2015. I think IAH may see 106 on Monday, possibly 107. I DO see a pattern change indicated in the 12Z GFS, though. After NEXT weekend, the ridge backs off to the west as an upper low builds over the mid Gulf coast. The low moves west into Texas by the 18th-20th, bringing increasing onshore flow and a good chance of rain, along with not-so-hot temperatures. In two weeks, the ridge shifts to the East U.S. Coast and we're in deep Gulf flow again. Good for rain, but our hurricane shield will be gone.

[Paul Robison]

The 12Z GFS still indicates that Monday will be the hottest day of next week, and probably 2015. I think IAH may see 106 on Monday, possibly 107. I DO see a pattern change indicated in the 12Z GFS, though. After NEXT weekend, the ridge backs off to the west as an upper low builds over the mid Gulf coast. The low moves west into Texas by the 18th-20th, bringing increasing onshore flow and a good chance of rain, along with not-so-hot temperatures. In two weeks, the ridge shifts to the East U.S. Coast and we're in deep Gulf flow again. Good for rain, but our hurricane shield will be gone.

Uh-oh.

[brooksgarner]

Don't forget compressional heating on Tuesday/Wednesday -- especially if that backdoor front stalls nearby on approach. That could add a degree or two. Enhances WSW surface flow while compressing...